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Guyana stands at the threshold of a new era. The recent discovery of vast offshore oil and gas (O and G) reserves and the start of production, is poised to fundamentally transform the structure of the Guyanese economy while generating an influx of fiscal revenue. Prior to the discovery, extractive industries and commodity exports already played a major role in Guyana's economy and public finances. However, the mining sector created few jobs and had a limited impact on poverty reduction. The rise of the O and G sector poses unprecedented macro-fiscal management challenges while offering new opportunities to address longstanding development constraints. The development of oil-producing countries often comes at high cost of environment and climate change, which needs to be balanced. In addition, the country is now facing the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic that will stretch the public health systems and highlight inadequacies of testing and treatment facilities. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter 1 situates the development of the oil sector within Guyana's broader economic, social, and political context. Chapter 2 estimates the magnitude of fiscal revenues from the oil sector, along with alternative cost scenarios, and the implications of alternative strategies for allocating these revenues and considers how policies can mitigate the macro-fiscal and environmental risks posed by the sector. Chapter 3 focuses on institutional quality and good governance, especially in terms of strengthening the public sector, and it details challenges related to the design and implementation of a sovereign wealth fund, which the international experience has shown to be vital to the success of resource-rich developing countries. Chapter 4 explores how the government can leverage natural resource revenues to accelerate Guyana's economic transformation and spur job creation. Chapter 5 evaluates strategies for transforming Guyana's natural capital into human capital and reaching full coverage of basic services and infrastructure through investment in health, education, and social protection. The chapter highlights the constraints in human capital development and health facilities; even more critical that these are addressed in context of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Chapter 6 prioritizes interventions necessary to generate enduring gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. A key offering of the chapter is a spatial development package to address deficiencies in basic service delivery and infrastructure necessary to protect well-being and health of Guyanese citizens. To ground the analysis in the real-world experience of Guyanese communities, each chapter begins with a brief discussion of how the newfound wealth will affect the most vulnerable and marginalized households.

Education --- Education For All --- Employment --- Energy --- Governance --- Inequality --- Intergenerational Equity --- Job Creation --- National Governance --- Oil and Gas --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Development --- Social Inclusion and Institutions --- State-Owned Enterprises

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This paper compares the temporal profile of efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions induced by two mitigation strategies: a regulation of all emissions with a carbon price and a regulation of emissions embedded in new capital only, using capital-based instruments such as investment regulation, differentiation of capital costs, or a carbon tax with temporary subsidies on brown capital. A Ramsey model is built with two types of capital: brown capital that produces a negative externality and green capital that does not. Abatement is obtained through structural change (green capital accumulation) and possibly through under-utilization of brown capital. Capital-based instruments and the carbon price lead to the same long-term balanced growth path, but they differ during the transition phase. The carbon price maximizes social welfare but may cause temporary under-utilization of brown capital, hurting the owners of brown capital and the workers who depend on it. Capital-based instruments cause larger intertemporal welfare loss, but they maintain the full utilization of brown capital, smooth efforts over time, and cause lower immediate utility loss. Green industrial policies including such capital-based instruments may thus be used to increase the political acceptability of a carbon price. More generally, the carbon price informs on the policy effect on intertemporal welfare but is not a good indicator to estimate the impact of the policy on instantaneous output, consumption, and utility.

Climate Change Economics --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Climate mitigation --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Energy efficiency standards --- Intergenerational equity --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

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Information on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how individuals perceive and evaluate climate change risks.

Benefit-Cost Analysis --- Biodiversity --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Ecosystem Valuation --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Intergenerational Equity --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Safe Minimum Standard --- Science and Technology Development --- Science of Climate Change --- Sustainable Development --- Uncertainty

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Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource-exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilization. Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically. This paper proposes some basic elements of a conceptual framework to create a system of checks and balances to help ensure that the sovereign wealth funds do not undermine macroeconomic management or become a vehicle for politically driven "investments." First, the risks and opportunities of domestic investment by sovereign wealth funds are analyzed. Central issues are the relationship of sovereign wealth fund financing to the budget process and to the procurement systems of sector ministries, as well as the establishment of appropriate benchmarks and safeguards to ensure the integrity of investment decisions. The paper argues that a well-governed sovereign wealth fund, with a sound mandate and professional management and staffing, can possibly improve the quality of the public investment program. But its mandate should not duplicate that of other government institutions with investment mandates, such as the budget, the national development bank, the investment authority, and state-owned enterprises. Establishing rules on the type of investment (for example, commercial and/or quasi-commercial) and its modalities (for example, no controlling stakes, leveraging private investment) is one way to ensure separation between the activities of the sovereign wealth fund and those of other institutions. The critical issue remains that of limiting the sovereign wealth fund's investment scope to that appropriate for a wealth fund. If investments that generate quasi-market returns are permitted, the size of the home bias should be clearly stipulated and these investments should be reported separately.

Access to Finance --- Capital Stock --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Investment --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Policy --- Infrastructure Investment --- Intergenerational Equity --- Investment & Investment Climate --- Macroeconomic Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non Bank Financial Institutions --- Private Sector Development --- Project Evaluation --- Public Finance --- Public Investment --- Public Private Partnerships --- Sovereign Wealth Fund --- SWF --- Wealth Management

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Maldives is an island nation scattered in the Indian Ocean comprising 1,190 small coral islands of which 190 are inhabited by a local population of 341,000. Maldives' unique archipelagic coral island provides the country with an extremely rich and diverse marine ecological system. With more territorial sea than land, marine resources have played a vital role shaping the contours of economic development, with nature-based tourism being the key driver of economic growth and fisheries an important sector of employment for the local population. Maldives developed a successful high-end tourism sector, whose sizeable rents have been redistributed to the population to address its development challenges. This systematic country diagnostic for Maldives aims at identifying the most critical constraints and opportunities facing the country as it works towards promoting sustainable growth, reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. In addition to serving as a public good for the government, civil society, research and academic community, and local and international development partners, the findings of the SCD will be used as key inputs in the preparation of the WBG strategy, the Country Partnership Framework, which will outline how the Bank Group's engagement in Maldives can best contribute towards achieving the twin goals.

Access to Finance --- Capital Markets --- Climate Change --- Commercial Banks --- Competition --- Credit --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Decision Making --- Disasters --- Drinking Water --- Economic Development --- Economic Growth --- Economics --- Economies of Scale --- Elasticity of Demand --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Equity --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Health --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Incentives --- Intergenerational Equity --- International Comparisons --- Knowledge --- Land --- Life Expectancy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marketing --- Measurement --- Migration --- Mortality --- Natural Resources --- Nutrition --- Political Economy --- Population Growth --- Property Rights --- Purchasing Power --- Risk Management --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Trade --- Transaction Costs --- Unemployment --- Violence --- Wages --- Waste --- Waste Management --- Weight --- Workers