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The SDR interest rate is at historic lows. Under the current Rule T-1, the SDR interest rate is calculated as the weighted average of interest rate instruments in the SDR basket, and stood at just 3 basis points for the week of October 13th. Market rates could decline further, which could reduce the SDR interest rate to zero or negative levels under the formula of the current Rule T-1.However, there is no authority under the Articles of Agreement for the Fund to establish a zero or negative SDR interest rate. The wording of the relevant provisions in the Articles does not leave room for a zero or negative rate, and nothing in the legislative history of the First and Second Amendments suggests that zero or negative rates were ever contemplated. Negative SDR interest rates would also have adverse implications for the Fund's finances.Moreover, very low SDR interest rates affect the functioning of the burden sharing mechanism for deferred charges. Under current Board decisions, the equal burden sharing, where creditors and debtors as a group generate equal amounts to cover deferred charges, requires a minimum positive SDR interest rate to operate. The SDR interest rate has now fallen below that minimum level. This paper proposes technical amendments to Rule T-1 and the burden sharing mechanism to address these issues. In particular, the paper proposes setting a 5 basis point floor on the SDR interest rate, changing the rounding rules on the SDR interest rate and the burden sharing adjustment, and reducing the 1 basis point minimum of the burden sharing adjustment to 0.1 basis point. These measures would preserve a minimal capacity of equal burden sharing aimed at protecting the Fund's balance sheet, while limiting potential departures of the SDR interest rate from market interest rates.
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The SDR interest rate is at historic lows. Under the current Rule T-1, the SDR interest rate is calculated as the weighted average of interest rate instruments in the SDR basket, and stood at just 3 basis points for the week of October 13th. Market rates could decline further, which could reduce the SDR interest rate to zero or negative levels under the formula of the current Rule T-1.However, there is no authority under the Articles of Agreement for the Fund to establish a zero or negative SDR interest rate. The wording of the relevant provisions in the Articles does not leave room for a zero or negative rate, and nothing in the legislative history of the First and Second Amendments suggests that zero or negative rates were ever contemplated. Negative SDR interest rates would also have adverse implications for the Fund's finances.Moreover, very low SDR interest rates affect the functioning of the burden sharing mechanism for deferred charges. Under current Board decisions, the equal burden sharing, where creditors and debtors as a group generate equal amounts to cover deferred charges, requires a minimum positive SDR interest rate to operate. The SDR interest rate has now fallen below that minimum level. This paper proposes technical amendments to Rule T-1 and the burden sharing mechanism to address these issues. In particular, the paper proposes setting a 5 basis point floor on the SDR interest rate, changing the rounding rules on the SDR interest rate and the burden sharing adjustment, and reducing the 1 basis point minimum of the burden sharing adjustment to 0.1 basis point. These measures would preserve a minimal capacity of equal burden sharing aimed at protecting the Fund's balance sheet, while limiting potential departures of the SDR interest rate from market interest rates.
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The object of this paper is to test several familiar hypotheses about the relationship between the forward rates implied by the term structure and interest rate expectations, using the one ongoing systematic survey that samples market participants' expectations. The substitution of survey data for overidentified constructions removes the principal source of ambiguity that has plagued much of the earlier empirical literature of the term structure. Nevertheless, because of limitations in the available data, it is possible to perform these tests only for the very short end of the maturity spectrum. Section I briefly describes the nature of the interest rate expectations survey and the calculation of the forward rate series from observed term structure data. Sections II-V present the results of testing the hypotheses that the implied term premium is zero on average (II), that it varies systematically with interest rate levels (III), that it varies with outside asset supplies (IV), and that it varies with economic activity (V). Section VI summarizes the findings of these tests and discusses their implications
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