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This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.

Intelligence service --- Terrorism --- Bombings --- Evaluation --- Prevention --- Bombings. --- Evaluation. --- Prevention. --- Intelligence service -- United States -- Evaluation. --- Interagency coordination -- United States. --- Military intelligence -- United States -- Evaluation. --- Terrorism -- Prevention -- Government policy -- United States. --- Terrorism -- Prevention. --- Military Administration --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Bomb attacks --- Terrorist bombings --- Offenses against public safety --- Political crimes and offenses --- Political violence --- Bombs --- Anti-terrorism --- Antiterrorism --- Counter-terrorism --- Counterterrorism --- Intelligence service - United States - Evaluation --- Terrorism - Prevention

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"After the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and subsequent anthrax mailings, the U.S. government prioritized a biosurveillance strategy aimed at detecting, monitoring, and characterizing national security health threats in human and animal populations, food, water, agriculture, and the environment. However, gaps and challenges in biosurveillance efforts and integration of biosurveillance activities remain. September 8-9, 2011, the IOM held a workshop to explore the information-sharing and collaboration processes needed for the nation's integrated biosurveillance strategy."-- Publisher's description.

Biological warfare -- United States -- Prevention -- Congresses. --- Biological warfare -- United States -- Safety measures -- Evaluation -- Congresses. --- Emergency management -- United States -- Planning -- Evaluation -- Congresses. --- Interagency coordination -- United States -- Congresses. --- Public health surveillance -- United States -- Evaluation -- Congresses. --- Biological warfare --- Public health surveillance --- Emergency management --- Interagency coordination --- Public Relations --- Terrorism --- Population Surveillance --- Health Services --- Communication --- Biological Warfare --- Health Care Facilities, Manpower, and Services --- Violence --- War --- Organization and Administration --- Behavior --- Information Science --- Public Health Practice --- Crime --- Behavior and Behavior Mechanisms --- Public Health --- Social Problems --- Health Services Administration --- Health Care --- Psychiatry and Psychology --- Sociology --- Environment and Public Health --- Criminology --- Social Sciences --- Anthropology, Education, Sociology and Social Phenomena --- Interinstitutional Relations --- Bioterrorism --- Biosurveillance --- Information Dissemination --- Emergency Medical Services --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Military Engineering --- Prevention --- Evaluation --- Safety measures --- Planning