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Econometric models --- Inflation (Finance) --- Modèles économétriques --- Inflation (Finances) --- United States --- Etats-Unis --- Economic conditions --- Conditions économiques --- Modèles économétriques --- Conditions économiques --- Inflation (Finance) - Econometric models --- United States - Economic conditions - 1945- - Econometric models
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Money. Monetary policy --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Inflation (Finance) --- International finance --- Economic stabilization --- Econometric models --- -Inflation (Finance) --- -International finance --- -International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- -Econometric models --- Inflation (Finance) - Econometric models --- International finance - Econometric models --- Economic stabilization - Econometric models
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The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization, and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Political stability -- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Political stability --- Econometric models. --- Destabilization (Political science) --- Political instability --- Stability, Political --- Consensus (Social sciences) --- Legitimacy of governments --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Agriculture: General --- Agricultural economics --- Oil prices --- Agricultural sector --- Agricultural industries
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This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Finance -- Econometric models. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Econometric models. --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- Consumer price indexes --- Inflation targeting --- Price indexes --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- United Kingdom
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The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quantitative evaluation of the relationship between measures of central bank financial strength and policy performance, in particular inflation. The paper's major finding is that there indeed is a negative relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation outcomes. This relationship appears to be robust to the choice of alternative country samples, control variables, estimation strategies, and conceptualizations of central bank financial strength.
Banks and banking, Central -- Econometric models. --- Capital -- Econometric models. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Monetary policy -- Econometric models. --- Banks and banking, Central --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models. --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Central bank autonomy --- Financial statements --- Central bank balance sheet --- Prices --- Finance, Public --- Chile
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Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy. Estimates indicate that monetary policy responses in inflation-targeting, open economies have changed significantly, as the institutional framework for the conduct of monetary policy has evolved. In particular, an explicit target for core inflation and a greater use of the expectation channel of monetary policy appear to be key features of the newest policy framework. In this context, central banks are unlikely to react to regular fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Monetary policy -- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Inflation targeting --- Consumer price indexes --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Price indexes --- New Zealand --- Inflation (Finance) --- Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models.
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Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society's welfare and economic growth. However, determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a dataset covering around 100 countries for the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation-stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Political stability -- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Agriculture: General --- Estimation --- Investment & securities --- Agricultural economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Oil prices --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Agricultural sector --- Estimation techniques --- Government securities --- Agricultural industries --- Econometric models --- United States --- Inflation (Finance) --- Political stability --- Econometric models.
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Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Interest rates -- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate anchor --- Monetary base --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Money supply --- Argentina --- Inflation (Finance) --- Foreign exchange rates --- Interest rates --- Econometric models.
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Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.
Anti-inflationary policies. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Inflation (Finance) -- Forecasting. --- Monetary policy -- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macroeconomics --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Central bank policy rate --- Inflation targeting --- Output gap --- Prices --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Production --- Real interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Economic theory --- Canada
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This Selected Issues paper sets out options to demonstrate how the authorities could supplement their cash balance target and public debt limit with an anchor to help discipline annual budget decisions. The paper introduces the current fiscal framework and effective fiscal rules based on international experiences, including the characteristics of each rule. It also discusses the need for a new fiscal anchor, given high revenue volatility, high infrastructure needs, and the country’s exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters. Contingency warrants for unforeseen expenditures, including from natural disasters, should be included in the budget in line with international best practices. Furthermore, if a disaster does not occur, this allocation could be saved in a contingency fund for natural disasters, which would enable swift disbursement in the aftermath of the disaster. The fund would be set up once fiscal buffers have been rebuilt. The IMF Staff suggests a target for the overall fiscal deficit of 1.5 percent of gross domestic product as a possible fiscal anchor, which would strike a balance between safeguarding debt sustainability and addressing the severe infrastructure gap.
Inflation (Finance)--Econometric models. --- Mines and mineral resources. --- Solomon Islands. --- Deposits, Mineral --- Mineral deposits --- Mineral resources --- Mines and mining --- Mining --- Natural resources --- Geology, Economic --- Minerals --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Natural disasters --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Expenditures, Public --- Solomon Islands --- Inflation (Finance) --- Econometric models.
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