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Structural sensitivity in econometric models
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ISBN: 0471819301 9780471819301 Year: 1985 Publisher: New York : J. Wiley,


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Political instability and inflation volatility
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451864728 1462300359 145190925X 9786613821812 1452705747 1282474286 Year: 2006 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund,

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The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the causes of worldwide diversity of inflation volatility. We show that higher degrees of political instability, ideological polarization, and political fragmentation are associated with higher inflation volatility.


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Core inflation measures and statistical issues in choosing among them
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ISBN: 1451863578 1462317529 1451908911 9786613825575 1452742073 1283513129 Year: 2006 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Statistics Dept,

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This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.


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Central bank financial strength and policy performance : an econometric evaluation
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451914873 1462303323 1451870345 1282841270 9786612841279 1452784396 Year: 2008 Volume: WP/08/176 Publisher: [Washington, District of Columbia] : International Monetary Fund,

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The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quantitative evaluation of the relationship between measures of central bank financial strength and policy performance, in particular inflation. The paper's major finding is that there indeed is a negative relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation outcomes. This relationship appears to be robust to the choice of alternative country samples, control variables, estimation strategies, and conceptualizations of central bank financial strength.


Book
Explicit and implicit targets in open economies
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ISBN: 1462309461 1452789517 1282546511 1451907311 9786613822147 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, European Dept.,

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Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy. Estimates indicate that monetary policy responses in inflation-targeting, open economies have changed significantly, as the institutional framework for the conduct of monetary policy has evolved. In particular, an explicit target for core inflation and a greater use of the expectation channel of monetary policy appear to be key features of the newest policy framework. In this context, central banks are unlikely to react to regular fluctuations in the exchange rate.


Book
Does political instability lead to higher inflation? : a panel data analysis
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462346812 1452782466 1282035290 9786613796806 1451906048 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,

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Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society's welfare and economic growth. However, determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a dataset covering around 100 countries for the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation-stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.


Book
Monetary and exchange rate dynamics during disinflation : an empirical analysis
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462352863 1452741093 1282108328 9786613801678 1451905882 Year: 2005 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Policy Development and Review Dept.,

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Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.


Book
Inflation-forecast targeting
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1513582925 1513544756 1513547658 1513557653 9781513557656 9781513544755 9781513582924 9781513547657 Year: 2015 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund, Research Department

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Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.


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Solomon Islands
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ISBN: 1484346203 1484346181 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper sets out options to demonstrate how the authorities could supplement their cash balance target and public debt limit with an anchor to help discipline annual budget decisions. The paper introduces the current fiscal framework and effective fiscal rules based on international experiences, including the characteristics of each rule. It also discusses the need for a new fiscal anchor, given high revenue volatility, high infrastructure needs, and the country’s exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters. Contingency warrants for unforeseen expenditures, including from natural disasters, should be included in the budget in line with international best practices. Furthermore, if a disaster does not occur, this allocation could be saved in a contingency fund for natural disasters, which would enable swift disbursement in the aftermath of the disaster. The fund would be set up once fiscal buffers have been rebuilt. The IMF Staff suggests a target for the overall fiscal deficit of 1.5 percent of gross domestic product as a possible fiscal anchor, which would strike a balance between safeguarding debt sustainability and addressing the severe infrastructure gap.

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