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Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.

Agricultural output --- Agricultural production --- Agricultural productivity --- Agricultural yields --- Climate change --- Climate Change Economics --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Crop production --- Environment --- Extreme poverty --- Food insecurity --- Food price --- Food prices --- Food Security --- Food supply --- Income --- Income on food --- Irrigation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poverty increase --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Science and Technology Development --- Science of Climate Change

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This paper analyzes the impact of trade reforms on household welfare. In particular, it studies the importance of each of the links that together constitute the impact using data from the Vietnamese experience in the 1990s. The implementation of trade reforms in the 1990s, most noteworthy of which was the liberalization of rice, resulted in substantial improvement in welfare as evidenced by the drastic decline in poverty. Using analytical and empirical methods, the author examines the role of each channel (direct versus indirect) in this improvement for different groups of households. Results indicate that the growth has been broad based and pro-poor. Poorer households experienced more growth for each and every group analyzed. And contrary to the standard literature, net buyer households had more growth compared with net sellers, emphasizing the importance of indirect links. Decomposition of the growth shows that for rural households, both the direct effect and the multiplier effect drive growth while the multiplier effect was key in urban areas. The importance of the secondary effects underscores the need for a broader model to estimate the impact of trade reforms fully.

Agricultural Production --- Counterfactual --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Farmers --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Food Buyers --- Food Crops --- Food Prices --- Household Welfare --- Income --- Income Distribution --- Income Growth --- Income On Food --- Inequality --- Labor Policies --- Land Titling --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor Households --- Poverty --- Poverty Diagnostics --- Poverty Profile --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Rural --- Rural Areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Households --- Rural Poor --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping --- Social Protections and Labor

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While the Azerbaijan household income and expenditure survey (HIES) data satisfy most empirical regularities expected in a typical household survey data, the unequality measures based on the data are unusually low. For example, for the latest three years for which we have data (2002 - 2004), the consumption Gini coefficient (the commonly used summary measure of inequality) is in the range of 16 - 18 percent. This is among the lowest Gini coefficients ever observed in any country, and is extremely low even with the standard of countries generally considered as most equal in the world. Azerbaijan, a transitional economy with a significant natural resource base, is unlikely to be the most equal country in the world. The objective of this paper is to investigate why inequality measures are unusually low in the Azerbaijan household survey data. The author presents a methodology for diagnosing and identifying the potential sources of low inequality in the data, including cluster analysis at the primary sampling unit level. The main inference from the findings of the cluster analysis is that the observed low inequality indices are not due to poor supervision of the interviewers and the data collection process. The author finds that the main culprits for the observed low inequality in the HIES data are (1) the low participation rates of wealthy households in the household surveys, and (2) the widespread availability of well-targeted public and private transfers.

Consumption --- Consumption Expenditures --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Food Consumption --- Household Consumption --- Household Income --- Household Survey --- Household Surveys --- Human Development --- Income On Food --- Inequality --- Macroeconomic Stability --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Measures --- Per Capita Consumption --- Poor --- Poverty --- Poverty Analysis --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Transfers --- Rural --- Rural Areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping