Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.

Debt Markets --- Economic Theory and Research --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Financial support --- Food and Beverage Industry --- Income levels --- Industry --- International Bank --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Micro-data --- Price change --- Price changes

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development has grown rapidly in recent years, partly due to the surprising finding that diversification rises with gross domestic product per capita up to a certain point. Export diversification along the extensive margin is inextricable from the introduction of new export products. The authors test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the introduction of new exports - export discoveries - under the assumption that the intensive and extensive margins of exports are correlated within broad country-industry groups. Econometric evidence from panel-data techniques that are appropriate for count data (the number of discoveries) suggests that discoveries within countries and industries rise with the growth of exports along the intensive margin (relative to the growth of non-export gross domestic product) but the magnitude of this partial correlation increases with domestic barriers to entry and with customs delays in exporting. However, the magnification effect of barriers to entry appears to be less significant as a determinant of total within-country export discoveries. This is consistent with inter-industry and within-country spillovers related to export discoveries, implying that barriers to entry enhance the effect of export growth on discoveries within country-industries but total discoveries might be unaffected by barriers to entry.

Barriers to entry --- Comparative advantage --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Export growth --- Exports --- Future research --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Gross domestic product --- Gross domestic product per capita --- Growth policy --- Growth rate --- Income levels --- Industrialization --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Net exports --- Patents --- Private Sector Development --- Production costs --- Profitability --- Regression analysis --- Structural change --- Transport --- Water Resources --- Water Resources Assessment

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Standard approaches to decomposing how much group differences contribute to inequality rarely show significant between-group inequality, and are of limited use in comparing populations with different numbers of groups. This study applies an adaptation to the standard approach that remedies these problems to longitudinal household data from two Indian villages - Palanpur in the north, and Sugao in the west. The authors find that in Palanpur the largest scheduled caste group failed to share in the gradual rise in village prosperity. This would not have emerged from standard decomposition analysis. However, in Sugao the alternative procedure did not yield any additional insights because income gains applied relatively evenly across castes.

Average income --- Between-group inequality --- Decomposable inequality measures --- Decomposition analysis --- Decomposition techniques --- Economic development --- Economic inequality --- Empirical application --- Equity and Development --- Household data --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- Income levels --- Inequality --- Inequality decomposition --- Inequality measurement --- Inequality will increase --- Policy research --- Population share --- Population sub-groups --- Population subgroup --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services & Transfers to Poor

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Using social tables, the author makes an estimate of global inequality (inequality among world citizens) in the early 19th century. The analysis shows that the level and composition of global inequality have changed over the past two centuries. The level has increased, reaching a high plateau around the 1950s, and the main determinants of global inequality have become differences in mean country incomes rather than inequalities within nations. The inequality extraction ratio (the percentage of total inequality that was extracted by global elites) has remained surprisingly stable, at around 70 percent of the maximum global Gini, during the past 100 years.

Average income --- Average incomes --- Economic review --- Equity and Development --- Growth rates --- Historical perspective --- Household surveys --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income distribution data --- Income distributions --- Income inequality --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Inequality --- International Economics & Trade --- Mean income --- Mean incomes --- Policy research --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Power parity --- Public policy --- Public Sector Development --- Real growth --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Trade Policy

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.

Adverse impacts --- Agricultural output --- Competitiveness --- Constant returns to scale --- Consumers --- Debt --- Economic cooperation --- Economic performance --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Export growth --- Exports --- Financial crisis --- Free Trade --- GDP --- Income --- Income levels --- International Economics & Trade --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Natural resources --- Newly industrialized countries --- Private Sector Development --- Product differentiation --- Productivity growth --- Public Sector Development --- Taxation --- Trade Policy