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In 2005, China participated for the first time in the International Comparison Program (ICP), which collects primary data across countries on the prices for an internationally comparable list of goods and services. This paper examines the implications of the new Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate (derived by the ICP) for China's poverty rate (by international standards) and how it has changed over time. We provide estimates with and without adjustment for a likely sampling bias in the ICP data. Using an international poverty line of USD 1.25 at 2005 PPP, we find a substantially higher poverty rate for China than past estimates, with about 15% of the population living in consumption poverty, implying about 130 million more poor by this standard. The income poverty rate in 2005 is 10%, implying about 65 million more people living in poverty. However, the new ICP data suggest an even larger reduction in the number of poor since 1981.

Extreme poverty --- Global poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income poverty --- International poverty line --- National poverty --- National poverty lines --- Poor --- Poverty measures --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction

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Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Economic Theory and Research --- Incidence of Poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor areas --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting

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The authors report new estimates of measures of absolute poverty for the developing world over 1981-2004. A clear trend decline in the percentage of people who are absolutely poor is evident, although with uneven progress across regions. They find more mixed success in reducing the total number of poor. Indeed, the developing world outside China has seen little or no sustained progress in reducing the number of poor, with rising poverty counts in some regions, notably Sub-Saharan Africa. There are encouraging signs of progress in reducing the incidence of poverty in all regions after 2000, although it is too early to say if this is a new trend.

Absolute Poverty --- Child Mortality --- Food Consumption --- Global Poverty --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Size --- Household Surveys --- Household Welfare --- Incidence of Poverty --- Income --- Inequality --- Per Capita Consumption --- Poor --- Poor People --- Population Policies --- Poverty Gap --- Poverty Gap Index --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Measures --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty --- Rural Poverty Line --- Rural Poverty Reduction

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Minot and Baulch combine household survey and census data to construct a provincial poverty map of Vietnam and evaluate the accuracy of geographically targeted antipoverty programs. First, they estimate per capita expenditure as a function of selected household and geographic characteristics using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standards Survey. Next, they combine the results with data on the same household characteristics from the 1999 census to estimate the incidence of poverty in each province. The results show that rural poverty is concentrated in 10 provinces in the Northern Uplands, 2 provinces in the Central Highlands, and 2 provinces in the Central Coast. The authors use Receiver Operating Characteristics curves to evaluate the effectiveness of geographic targeting. The results show that the existing poor communes system excludes large numbers of poor people, but there is potential for sharpening poverty targeting using a small number of easy-to-measure household characteristics. This paper is a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the International Food Policy Research Institute. The authors may be contacted at n.minot@cgiar.org or bornbaulch@lds.ac.uk.

Anti-Poverty --- Extreme Poverty --- Food Aid --- Food Policy --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Income --- Household Size --- Household Survey --- Incidence of Poverty --- Poor --- Poor Households --- Poor People --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Analysis --- Poverty Estimates --- Poverty Map --- Poverty Maps --- Poverty Programs --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting

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July 2000 - Poverty in the developing world will decline by roughly half by 2015 if current growth trends and policies persist. But a disproportionate share of poverty reduction will occur in East and South Asia, poverty will decline only slightly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and it will increase in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. What can be done to change this picture? More effective development aid could greatly improve poverty reduction in the areas where poverty reduction is expected to lag: Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Even more potent would be significant policy reform in the countries themselves. Collier and Dollar develop a model of efficient aid in which the total volume of aid is endogenous. In particular, aid flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective use of aid. They use the model to investigate scenarios-of policy reform, of more efficient aid, and of greater volumes of aid-that point the way to how the world could cut poverty in half in every major region. The fact that aid increases the benefits of reform suggests that a high level of aid to strong reformers may increase the likelihood of sustained good policy (an idea ratified in several recent case studies of low-income reformers). Collier and Dollar find that the world is not operating on the efficiency frontier. With the same level of concern, much more poverty reduction could be achieved by allocating aid on the basis of how poor countries are as well as on the basis of the quality of their policies. Global poverty reduction requires a partnership in which third world countries and governments improve economic policy while first world citizens and governments show concern about poverty and translate that concern into effective assistance. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study aid effectiveness. The authors may be contacted at pcollier@worldbank.org or ddollar@worldbank.org

Developing Countries --- Development Assistance --- Development Goals --- Economic Policies --- Global Poverty --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Incidence Of Poverty --- Large Populations --- Low-Income Countries --- Policies --- Policy --- Policy Change --- Population --- Population Growth --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Purchasing Power --- Purchasing Power Parity --- Respect --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Significant Policy --- Workshops