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Globally, more than 130 million people are estimated to be in food crisis. These humanitarian disasters are associated with severe impacts on livelihoods that can reverse years of development gains. The existing outlooks of crisis-affected populations rely on expert assessment of evidence and are limited in their temporal frequency and ability to look beyond several months. This paper presents a statistical foresting approach to predict the outbreak of food crises with sufficient lead time for preventive action. Different use cases are explored related to possible alternative targeting policies and the levels at which finance is typically unlocked. The results indicate that, particularly at longer forecasting horizons, the statistical predictions compare favorably to expert-based outlooks. The paper concludes that statistical models demonstrate good ability to detect future outbreaks of food crises and that using statistical forecasting approaches may help increase lead time for action.

Climate and Meteorology --- Climate Change Economics --- Cost-Sensitive Learning --- Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness --- Economic Forecasting --- Extreme Event --- Famine --- Food Crisis --- Food Insecurity --- Food Security --- Forecasting --- Humanitarian Crisis --- Statistical and Mathematical Sciences --- Statistical Model --- Targeting --- Unbalanced Data

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How China is using the US-led war on terror to erase the cultural identity of its Muslim minority in the Xinjiang regionWithin weeks of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, the Chinese government warned that it faced a serious terrorist threat from its Uyghur ethnic minority, who are largely Muslim. In this explosive book, Sean Roberts reveals how China has been using the US-led global war on terror as international cover for its increasingly brutal suppression of the Uyghurs, and how the war's targeting of an undefined enemy has emboldened states around the globe to persecute ethnic minorities and severely repress domestic opposition in the name of combatting terrorism.Of the eleven million Uyghurs living in China today, more than one million are now being held in so-called reeducation camps, victims of what has become the largest program of mass detention and surveillance in the world. Roberts describes how the Chinese government successfully implicated the Uyghurs in the global terror war—despite a complete lack of evidence—and branded them as a dangerous terrorist threat with links to al-Qaeda. He argues that the reframing of Uyghur domestic dissent as international terrorism provided justification and inspiration for a systematic campaign to erase Uyghur identity, and that a nominal Uyghur militant threat only emerged after more than a decade of Chinese suppression in the name of counterterrorism—which has served to justify further state repression.A gripping and moving account of the humanitarian catastrophe that China does not want you to know about, The War on the Uyghurs draws on Roberts's own in-depth interviews with the Uyghurs, enabling their voices to be heard.

Muslims --- China --- Ethnic relations. --- Beijing. --- China's Forgotten People. --- Chinese Communism. --- Chinese Communist Party. --- Chinese internment camps. --- Gardner Bovingdon. --- Islam. --- Maoism. --- Michael Clarke. --- Nick Holdstock. --- Strangers in Their Own Land. --- Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism in China. --- World Trade Center attacks. --- XUAR. --- Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. --- communist oppression. --- concentration camps. --- crimes against humanity. --- detentions. --- genocide. --- global war on terror. --- human rights. --- humanitarian crisis. --- minorities. --- oppression of Muslims. --- reprogramming. --- totalitarianism.

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"Well into its third decade, the military conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been dubbed a "forever war"--A perpetual cycle of war, civil unrest, and local feuds over power and identity. Millions have died in one of the worst humanitarian calamities of our time. The War That Doesn't Say Its Name investigates the most recent phase of this conflict, asking why the peace deal of 2003--accompanied by the largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in the world and tens of billions in international aid--has failed to stop the violence. Jason Stearns argues that the fighting has become an end in itself, carried forward in substantial part through the apathy and complicity of local and international actors. Stearns shows that regardless of the suffering, there has emerged a narrow military bourgeoisie of commanders and politicians for whom the conflict is a source of survival, dignity, and profit. Foreign donors provide food and urgent health care for millions, preventing the Congolese state from collapsing, but this involvement has not yielded transformational change. Stearns gives a detailed historical account of this period, focusing on the main players--Congolese and Rwandan states and the main armed groups. He extrapolates from these dynamics to other conflicts across Africa and presents a theory of conflict that highlights the interests of the belligerents and the social structures from which they arise."--

Civil war --- Civil war. --- Politics and government. --- Since 1997. --- Congo (Democratic Republic) --- Congo (Democratic Republic). --- History --- Politics and government --- Polemology --- anno 1990-1999 --- anno 2000-2009 --- anno 2010-2019 --- Congo --- Civil wars --- Intra-state war --- Rebellions --- Government, Resistance to --- International law --- Revolutions --- War --- #SBIB:39A73 --- #SBIB:328H412 --- #SBIB:327.5H21 --- Etnografie: Afrika --- Instellingen en beleid: Zaïre / Congo --- Vrede - oorlog, oorlogssituaties --- BPB2208 --- civil war --- political violence --- Democratic Republic of the Congo --- Kongon demokraattinen tasavalta --- Demokratická republika Kongo --- Democratische Republiek Congo --- Демократска Република Конго --- Kongo Demokraatlik Vabariik --- Demokratyczna Republika Konga --- Demokratična republika Kongo --- die Demokratische Republik Kongo --- Konžská demokratická republika --- Repubblica democratica del Congo --- Демократична република Конго --- Repubblika Demokratika tal-Kongo --- Poblacht Dhaonlathach an Chongó --- Kongói Demokratikus Köztársaság --- Congo, Republica Democratică --- Congo-Kinshasa --- República Democrática del Congo --- Demokratska Republika Kongo --- Den Demokratiske Republik Congo --- Republika Demokratike e Kongos --- Kongo Demokratinė Respublika --- République démocratique du Congo --- Kongo Demokrātiskā Republika --- Demokratiska republiken Kongo --- Λαϊκή Δημοκρατία του Κονγκό --- Kongo Kinšasa --- Kongo DV --- Kongo (Leopoldville) --- Kongo (býv. Zair) --- Конго Слободна Држава --- Конго Киншаса --- Kinshasa Kongo --- Zair --- Zairas --- Ζαΐρ --- República Democrática do Congo --- Заир --- Κογκό Κινσάσα --- Beļģijas Kongo --- Kinshasa --- Congo Kinshasa --- Конго-Киншаса --- Zaire --- Zaïre --- Republica Congoleză --- Kongo (Kinshasa) --- ex Zaire --- Република Конго (Леополдвил) --- Белгиско Конго --- Zaira --- Kongo-Kinshasa --- Congo belgian --- Kongo Kinshasa --- Kinshasan Kongo --- Kinshasské Kongo --- Zairská republika --- politikai erőszak --- политичко насиље --- politisk vold --- политическо насилие --- poliittinen väkivalta --- poliitiline vägivald --- foréigean polaitiúil --- politinė prievarta --- политичко насилство --- violencia política --- violenza politica --- violence politique --- πολιτική βία --- politiskā vardarbība --- vjolenza politika --- političko nasilje --- politické násilí --- dhunë politike --- politische Gewalt --- przemoc polityczna --- violență politică --- politiek geweld --- politično nasilje --- violência política --- politiskt våld --- politické násilie --- rivoluzione --- револуција --- vallankumous --- forradalom --- atentát --- герила --- Revolution --- guerrilha --- guerile --- Guerillabewegung --- révolution --- revolução --- guerrilla --- guerriglia --- revolutsioon --- gerilla --- gerillaháború --- gherilă --- revolucion --- επανάσταση --- revoluție --- αντάρτικο --- revolúcia --- revolucija --- revolūcija --- partisan --- revoliucija --- revolta --- partizānu karš --- revoluce --- partizanas --- sissi --- guérilla --- revolution --- revolución --- politikai kényszer --- guerilla --- lotta armata --- επαναστατική δράση --- gerila --- revolutie --- občanská válka --- wojna domowa --- burgeroorlog --- εμφύλιος πόλεμος --- državljanska vojna --- гражданска война --- cogadh cathartha --- kodusõda --- Bürgerkrieg --- sisällissota --- borgerkrig --- грађански рат --- pilietinis karas --- guerra civile --- pilsoņu karš --- občianska vojna --- граѓанска војна --- inbördeskrig --- gwerra ċivili --- guerra civil --- polgárháború --- război civil --- luftë civile --- guerre civile --- građanski rat --- vzpoura --- востание --- felkelés --- insurecție --- sukilimas --- insurrection --- povstání --- kapina --- sacelšanās --- lázadás --- guerra interna --- kryengritje --- ustanak --- pobuna --- povstanie --- resistenza --- ülestõus --- Ambiguity. --- Anti-imperialism. --- Apathy. --- Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. --- Assassination. --- Banyarwanda. --- Belligerent. --- Bourgeoisie. --- Bunia. --- Bureaucracy. --- Cannibalism. --- Carl von Clausewitz. --- Censure. --- Code name. --- Colombian conflict. --- Combat. --- Combatant. --- Communal violence. --- Conditionality. --- Conflict resolution. --- Corruption. --- Counter-insurgency. --- Cynicism (contemporary). --- Defeatism. --- Defection. --- Demobilization. --- Desertion. --- Dissident. --- Distrust. --- Ebb and flow. --- Electoral fraud. --- Ethnic conflict. --- Famine. --- First Congo War. --- Foreign Correspondent (TV series). --- Gisenyi. --- Governance. --- Headline. --- Henry Morton Stanley. --- Hewlett-Packard. --- Hostility. --- Humanitarian crisis. --- Hutu. --- Immorality. --- Impunity. --- Information asymmetry. --- Insubordination. --- Insurgency. --- Internally displaced person. --- Intimidation. --- Ituri conflict. --- Joseph Kabila. --- Kigali. --- Kinshasa. --- M23 rebellion. --- Mai-Mai. --- Military academy. --- Military operation. --- Military organization. --- Mixed brigade. --- Mobutu Sese Seko. --- Mongbwalu. --- National Congress for the Defence of the People. --- National Resistance Army. --- National security. --- North Kivu. --- Paganism. --- Paul Kagame. --- Persecution. --- Politician. --- Politics. --- Precedent. --- Protest. --- Provisional government. --- Proxy war. --- Raia Mutomboki. --- Rebel Alliance. --- Rebellion. --- Refugee camp. --- Refugee. --- Reginald Scot. --- Resentment. --- Resignation. --- Rwanda. --- Second Congo War. --- Self-defense. --- Skepticism. --- Smuggling. --- Sri Lankan Civil War. --- The Guns of Navarone (novel). --- Too big to fail. --- Tutsi. --- Uganda People's Defence Force. --- Uganda. --- Unclean spirit. --- Unrest. --- Violence. --- War crime. --- War economy. --- War.