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This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of ½ percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.
Housing -- Canada. --- Housing -- Prices -- Canada. --- Real property -- Canada. --- Infrastructure --- Investments: Stocks --- Real Estate --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Property & real estate --- Stocks --- Housing prices --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Saving and investment --- Canada
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This paper assesses house prices in 11 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) using the borrowing-capacity and the net-present-value approaches. The results indicate that by the end of 2018, house prices in most metropolitan areas are aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals. However, in Hamilton, Toronto, and Vancouver house prices have increased beyond the values implied by the fundamentals.
Housing--Prices--Canada. --- Mortgage loans--Canada. --- Real estate investment. --- Investment in real estate --- Real property investment --- Investments --- Land speculation --- Real estate business --- Inflation --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Personal income --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Income --- Saving and investment --- Canada --- Mortgage loans
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