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Using recent estimates of industry assistance rates, the effects of trade liberalization in the rest of the world and in Pakistan alone are analyzed using a global and a Pakistan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model under two tax replacement schemes: a direct income tax and an indirect tax replacement. The results indicate that the distributional and poverty effects in Pakistan of a unilateral liberalization of all traded goods are significantly greater than the effects of trade liberalization in the rest of the world. There is relatively higher increase in real income and larger decline in poverty incidence in poor households both in rural and urban areas. The effects of agricultural trade liberalization alone in both the rest of the world and in Pakistan are considerably smaller than those from trade liberalization involving all goods. In both the agricultural and all-goods trade liberalization scenarios involving direct income tax replacement, real household income is raised and the poverty incidence is lowered at varied rates across all household groups except for the urban non-poor. When an indirect tax replacement is used, where the burden of replacing tariff revenue is shared by all household groups depending on their consumption structure, there is reduction in household income for most of the groups and less reduction of poverty.

Accounting --- Agricultural Sector --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agricultural Workers --- Agriculture --- Commodity Prices --- Consumers --- Developing Countries --- Household Consumption --- Household Savings --- Income Inequality --- Income Redistribution --- Income Tax --- Industrialization --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Irrigation --- Labor Market --- Marketing --- Political Economy --- Poverty and Trade --- Poverty Reduction --- Remittances --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings --- Skilled Workers --- Tax Policy --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Wages

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In 2011, India's economic growth has slowed to below 7 percent and the stock markets mirrored the weakening economic conditions, but recovered somewhat in early 2012. Industrial sector output growth briefly slipped into negative territory. On the demand side, fixed investment and consumption growth slowed. India's exports were growing very strongly through 2011 despite the worsening economic conditions in Europe, which continued to be India's most important export market. The balance of payments continued to be in surplus during April-September 2011, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves declined by a small amount since then. The rupee nevertheless depreciated by 20 percent between August and December, before recovering somewhat in early 2012. Macroeconomic policies presented a mixed picture: the central government is likely to miss the ambitious target for fiscal consolidation it had set in the FY2011-12 budget by about one percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Slippages are due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies, which had been given low budgetary allocations in anticipation of strong policy changes, which failed to materialize. In India, the slowdown in GDP growth witnessed over the last two quarters is likely to extend into the coming fiscal year because of the weakness in investment. In FY2011-12 and FY2012-13, GDP growth is forecast to reach around 7-7.5 percent, a significant slowdown from the 9-10 percent growth in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems (power projects facing delays due to the lack of coal and gas feedstock, mining and the telecom sectors hit by corruption scandals, unavailability of land and infrastructure).

Access to Finance --- Accounting --- Agriculture --- Auctions --- Capital Flows --- Commercial Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Credit Default Swaps --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equity Markets --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Sector --- Gdp --- Household Savings --- Human Capital --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Interest Rates --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Political Economy --- Private Investment --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Purchasing Power --- Remittances --- Savings Rate --- Securities --- Tax Exemptions --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Wages

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The Indian economy recovered from the slowdown at the time of the global financial crisis with strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, in particular over the first half of FY2010-11. The agricultural sector bounced back strongly after the 2010 monsoon brought normal levels of rainfall, and the industrial sector registered double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters. Inflation came down to 7.5 percent in November but then accelerated again to 8.4 percent in December because of a renewed food supply shock. The current account deficit in FY2009-10 was the largest ever (in USD terms) and the monthly deficit widened further during the first half of FY2010-11, but the trend then reversed with import growth slowing and export growth accelerating in September-December 2010. With the significant inflation differential between India and its trading partners, the rupees real effective exchange rate (REER) strengthened. On the fiscal side, massive windfall revenue from wireless spectrum auctions and buoyant tax revenue are likely to be offset by two supplementary spending bills. Monetary policy tightening continued with increases in policy rates. This update also discusses several medium-term issues: the link between the real exchange rate and growth, a long-term look at education, demographics and growth, the challenges facing the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and the mid-term evaluation of the eleventh development plan. On the real exchange rate, economists have pointed out that the most successful emerging market economies have maintained an undervalued exchange rate to promote exports. In India, the real exchange rate has been broadly stable since the early 1990s, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges it fairly valued with respect to different measures of equilibrium. However, the growing trade deficit and a large fiscal deficit do not quite fit this picture. Discussing policies, we argue that it would be best to focus on policies that increase productivity and competitiveness.

Access to Finance --- Accounting --- Agriculture --- Auctions --- Capital Flows --- Commercial Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Credit Default Swaps --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equity Markets --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Sector --- Gdp --- Household Savings --- Human Capital --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Interest Rates --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Political Economy --- Private Investment --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Purchasing Power --- Remittances --- Savings Rate --- Securities --- Tax Exemptions --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Wages

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed to a nine year low of 6.5 percent for FY2011-12, from 8.4 percent in the two previous years. The slowdown was most pronounced in the industrial sector, and more specifically in manufacturing and mining. In the quarter ending in June 2012, industrial output growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has been negative. The contraction was particularly pronounced in the production of capital goods, which is in line with falling investment demand on the expenditure side of the National Accounts. The current account deficit reached a record 4.2 percent of GDP in FY2011-12, because of decelerating export growth and high crude prices. Merchandise exports grew by 41 percent in September 2011, but their growth slowed to 2 percent by August 2012 (measured as 12-months cumulative exports compared with the same 12 months of the previous year). Inflation reached 7.6 percent in August 2012. This represents a marked slowdown since September 2011, but there has been an uptick in food prices in recent months. Also, higher domestic prices for fuel, which are necessary to rein in spending on subsidies, will contribute to inflationary pressure. Inflation is therefore expected to reach 8 percent at end-March 2013. Real GDP growth is forecast to reach around 6.0 percent in FY2012-13, after 5.3 percent growth Q4 of FY2011-12 and 5.5 percent growth in Q1 of FY2012-13. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems. These include power shortages, which are partly caused by the financial difficulties facing the electricity sector as discussed in the special topic section of this update, the corruption scandals that have hit the mining and telecom sectors, investor uncertainty because of pending changes in legislation (mining, taxes, land acquisition), and the tightening constraints of land and infrastructure. Tighter macroeconomic policies, slow growth in the core Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and worries about another global recession also weigh on growth. Important signals to revive domestic growth drivers to lift sentiment more than produce instant efficiency gains could come from reforms recently announced and, more importantly, the reform of direct taxes, the implementation of the long-delayed Goods and Services Tax (GST), and passage of the land acquisition and mining bills. This update also looks closely at two important topics for medium- and long-term growth, namely India's Right to Education (RTE) Act, which aims to shape elementary education, and the financial difficulties in the Indian power sector.

Access to Finance --- Agriculture --- Auctions --- Banking Sector --- Bonds --- Capital Flows --- Cash Transfers --- Central Banks --- Collateral --- Commercial Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Consumers --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Debt Restructuring --- Developing Countries --- Domestic Debt --- Economic theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Expenditures --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Sector --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Global Economy --- Gross Domestic Product --- Household Savings --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Interest Rates --- Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Private Investment --- Private Sector Development --- Public Investment --- Public Spending --- Purchasing Power --- Recession --- Remittances --- Risk Aversion --- Savings Rate --- Side Effects --- Slowdown --- Surplus --- Tax Policy --- Total Factor Productivity --- Unemployment --- Wages

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The declining U.S. national saving rate has prompted economists and policymakers to ask, should the federal government encourage household saving, and if so, through which policies? In order to better understand saving programs, this volume provides a systematic and detailed description of saving policies in the G-7 industrialized nations: the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Each of the seven chapters focuses on one country and addresses a core set of topics: types of accumulated household savings and debt; tax policies toward capital income; saving in the form of public and private pensions, including Social Security and similar programs; saving programs that receive special tax treatment; and saving through insurance. This detailed summary of the saving incentives of the G-7 nations will be an invaluable reference for policymakers and academics interested in personal saving behavior.

Belasting --- Impôt --- Taxation --- CA / Canada --- DE / Germany - Duitsland - Allemagne --- FR / France - Frankrijk --- GB / United Kingdom - Verenigd Koninkrijk - Royaume Uni --- IT / Italy - Italië - Italie --- JP / Japan - Japon --- US / United States of America - USA - Verenigde Staten - Etats Unis --- 339.311.6 --- 339.311.1 --- 339.311.0 --- Beleid met betrekking tot het sparen (zie pensioensparen 332.834). --- Spaarneiging. --- Sparen: algemeenheden. --- Saving and investment --- Taxation. --- Government policy. --- Duties --- Fee system (Taxation) --- Tax policy --- Tax reform --- Taxation, Incidence of --- Taxes --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Finance, Public --- Revenue --- Capital --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Sparen en spaarzaamheid --- Government policy --- Saving and thrift - Government policy. --- Saving and investment - Government policy. --- Sparen: algemeenheden --- Spaarneiging --- Beleid met betrekking tot het sparen (zie pensioensparen 332.834) --- insurance, saving, tax shelters, social security, pension, retirement, capital income, taxation, debt, household savings, united kingdom, japan, italy, germany, france, canada, g-7 nations, finance, economics, nonfiction, thrift, investment, policy, government, inflation, poverty, wealth, aging, inequity, welfare, intervention, regulation, 401k, ira.