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We introduce and quantify a new channel through which the housing market affects household spending: the home purchase channel. Using an event-study design with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we show that households spend on average $3,700 more in the months before and the first year following a home purchase. This spending is concentrated in the home-related durables and home improvements sectors, which are complementary to the purchase of the house. Expenditures on nondurables and durables unrelated to the home remain unchanged or decrease modestly. We estimate that the home purchase channel played a substantial role in the Great Recession, accounting for one-third of the decline in home-related durables spending and a fifth of the decline in home maintenance and investment spending from 2005 to 2010, together totaling $14.3 billion annually.
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This paper reviews the Latin American experience with the implementation of 1993 SNAand the updating of the national accounts' base year. It also makes a preliminary assessment of the possible estimation biases in nominal GDP estimates stemming from the use of outdated national accounts base years, downwards biases with household final consumption estimates, and an overestimation of gross fixed capital formation in construction activities.
National income --- Accounting --- Evaluation. --- Net national product --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Income --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- National accounts --- Gross fixed investment --- Consumption --- Household consumption --- Saving and investment --- Economics --- Nicaragua
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High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households’ debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.
Risk management--China. --- China. --- Debt--Social aspects. --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Property & real estate --- Income --- Consumption --- Housing prices --- Household consumption --- Income shocks --- National accounts --- Prices --- Economics --- Housing --- China, People's Republic of --- Risk management.
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Recognizing that intrahousehold inequalities exist, this study focuses on the distribution of resources toward children across household types. A bargaining framework is used to test whether it matters who has control over resources. Results show that control over resources matters, as well as the characteristics of family members. The policy implication is that the education of mothers is important to improve child welfare, over and above the benefits of cash transfer schemes. Parental education campaigns should accompany child welfare programs, particularly among indigenous families. Children fare better when mothers are educated, both parents are present, and there are fewer children.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Education: General --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Personal income --- Household consumption --- Expenditure --- Labor --- National accounts --- Income --- Consumption --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public --- Labor economics --- Bolivia
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This paper examines the progressivity of social sector expenditures and taxes in eight sub-Saharan African countries. It uses dominance tests to determine whether health and education expenditures redistribute resources to the poor. The paper finds that social services are poorly targeted. Among the services examined, primary education tends to be most progressive, and university education is least progressive. The paper finds that many taxes are progressive as well as efficient, including some broad-based taxes such as the VAT and wage taxation. Taxes on kerosene and exports appear to be the only examples of regressive taxes.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Health Policy --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Health: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Education --- Health systems & services --- Health economics --- Expenditure --- Health care --- Income --- Household consumption --- Health --- National accounts --- Expenditures, Public --- Medical care --- Consumption --- Economics --- Côte d'Ivoire
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This paper assesses the distributional impact of the recent VAT reform in the Philippines and evaluates alternative methods to mitigate the effects of the reform on poor households. The reform was progressive and relatively well targeted. To alleviate the impact of the reform on the poor, several mitigating measures were introduced. Although these measures reduced the adverse impact of the VAT reform for all households, a sizable amount of the benefit accrued to high-income households. Targeted transfer schemes have the potential to deliver a much higher percentage of benefits to the poor.
Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Education: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Education --- Income --- Value-added tax --- Consumption --- Household consumption --- Economics --- Spendings tax --- Philippines --- Sales tax
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In countries such as the Soviet Union, where wealth is mainly stored in monetary assets, the behavior of the money to income ratio is a poor indicator of the growth of undesired monetary balances (monetary overhang). In those countries a monetary overhang is primarily a wealth overhang, which has to be analyzed by evaluating deviations of actual from desired wealth holdings; this requires an empirical analysis of consumption and saving decisions. In this paper, we present estimates of a consumption function for the Soviet Union, from which an evaluation of the monetary overhang existing at the end of 1990 is derived.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demand for Money --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Prices --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Consumption --- Disposable income --- Income --- Household consumption --- National accounts --- Prices --- Economics --- National income --- Russian Federation
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Prais (1958) showed that the CPI computed by statistical agencies can be interpreted as a weighed average of household price indexes, the weight of each household determined by its total expenditures. We decompose the difference between the standard CPI and a democratically weighed index (i.e., the plutocratic bias) as the product of average income, income inequality, and the covariance between individual price indexes and a parameter related to each good's income elasticity. This decomposition allows us to interpret variations in the size and sign of the plutocratic bias, and also to discuss issues pertaining to group indexes.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Consumer price indexes --- Income --- Income inequality --- Household consumption --- Prices --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Price indexes --- Income distribution --- Consumption --- Economics --- Spain
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This Selected Issues paper examines from an empirical standpoint the impact of fiscal aggregates on the evolution of output and the real effective exchange rate in the United Kingdom from the late 1970s to the present. It finds that the size of the dynamic fiscal multipliers is small, and often statistically nonsignificant. The paper also finds that the direction of the impact of taxes and government consumption, but not of social transfers, is, if anything, the reverse of that predicted by standard Keynesian models.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Property & real estate --- Real exchange rates --- Consumption --- Household consumption --- Fiscal policy --- Government consumption --- National accounts --- Economics --- Saving and investment --- National income --- United Kingdom
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Tout porte à croire que l’année en cours sera, elle aussi, une année encourageante pour la plupart des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Sous l’effet surtout du dynamisme de la demande intérieure mais aussi du niveau élevé des cours des produits de base, l’économie de la région devrait croître de plus de 5¼ % en 2011. Pour 2012, selon les projections de référence des services du FMI, la croissance régionale devrait être supérieure à 5¾ %, compte tenu notamment des mesures ponctuelles prises par plusieurs pays pour stimuler la production. Mais il y a des fantômes au banquet : la hausse des prix mondiaux des produits de l’alimentation et de l’énergie, amplifiée par la sécheresse qui sévit par endroits, a mis à mal les budgets des pauvres et a provoqué une poussée d’inflation, et les hésitations de la reprise mondiale menacent d’assombrir les perspectives d’exportation et de croissance. Les projections régionales pour 2012 reposent en grande partie sur l’hypothèse que le rythme de croissance de l’économie mondiale se maintiendra autour de 4 %. Si la croissance continue de ralentir dans les pays avancés et que la demande mondiale s’en trouve freinée, l’expansion en cours dans la région connaîtra vraisemblablement de grandes difficultés, les pays les plus exposés étant probablement ceux qui sont plus intégrés à l’économie mondiale. Au cours des mois à venir, les autorités devront gérer un équilibre délicat entre, d’une part, la nécessité d’affronter les défis engendrés par la vigueur de la croissance et les récents chocs exogènes et, d’autre part, celle d’éviter les effets négatifs d’un nouveau ralentissement de l’activité mondiale. Dans certains pays moins dynamiques, qui sont surtout des pays à revenu intermédiaire et où la liberté d’action des autorités n’est pas soumise à des contraintes financières, il est clair que les pouvoirs publics doivent continuer de soutenir la croissance de la production, à plus forte raison si la croissance mondiale vacille. Pour autant que l’économie mondiale connaisse, comme prévu aujourd’hui, une croissance régulière mais faible, la plupart des pays à faible revenu de la région devraient fonder résolument leur politique budgétaire sur des considérations de moyen terme, tout en resserrant leur politique monétaire partout où l’inflation hors alimentation a dépassé 10 %. En cas de ralentissement de l’activité mondiale, sous réserve des contraintes de financement, ces pays devraient s’attacher à maintenir les initiatives de dépenses déjà prévues, en laissant jouer les stabilisateurs automatiques du côté des recettes. En ce qui concerne les pays exportateurs de pétrole, l’amélioration des termes de l’échange offre une bonne occasion de constituer des marges de manœuvre pour parer à un regain de volatilité des prix.
Africa, Sub-Saharan --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Household Analysis: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Social welfare & social services --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Consumption --- Floating exchange rates --- Exports --- Economics --- Prices --- Income --- South Africa
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