Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The global economy got off to a bumpy start this year, but growth in 2015 and 2016 looks to be broadly on track. Projections for developing countries in 2014 have been down downgraded by 0.5 percentage points to 4.8 percent mainly reflecting weak first quarter growth in the US due to weather and the conflict in Ukraine. Going forward growth is projected to firm to 5.3 and 5.5 percent in 2015 and 2016 supported by easy global financial conditions and rebounding exports as high-income countries continue to recover under the influence of a reduced drag from fiscal consolidation and improving labor markets. Financial conditions will eventually tighten, and when they do there is risk of further volatility. Most developing countries are in good fiscal and financial shape, but where vulnerabilities remain countries need to tighten policy to reduce the potential impact of external shocks. Overall, growth for developing countries will be solid but not strong enough to generate the income and employment gains needed to eliminate poverty by 2013. As a result, countries need to focus on structural reform in order to lift growth in and enduring and sustainable manner.

Capital Inflows --- Developing Countries --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Forecast --- Growth --- High-Income Countries --- Inflation --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Easing --- Outlook --- Unemployment

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The recent worsening of the financial crisis in the United States and the contagion to the world real economy are adding pressures for Mongolia to address macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, the fall in copper prices and the shortage of liquidities worldwide will imply a slowdown of global economic growth, lower copper prices, and reduced foreign direct investment (FDI). The implications for Mongolia, a larger current account deficit, much lower government revenues, and continued large investment needs, will pose significant policy challenges for the new government to maintain growth while lowering inflation. Fiscal tightening will be a key to prevent inflation from permanently affecting expectations and to reduce the current account deficit. This includes no further increase in public wages, no further increase in universal cash transfers, and a prioritized investment program limited to what the absorptive capacity of the economy can bear. Fiscal space should be kept for a targeted social safety net to protect the most vulnerable. Reducing inflation is always painful, but the slower the authorities react, the more protracted the process is, with deeper impact in economic activity, employment and poverty.

Agriculture --- Cash Transfers --- Commodity Prices --- Credibility --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic Growth --- Expenditures --- Financial Crisis --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Gdp --- Gross Domestic Product --- High-Income Countries --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Job Creation --- Labor Market --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Sector Development

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This chapter begins with a brief summary of the long history of national distortions to agricultural markets. It then outlines the methodology used to generate annual indicators of the extent of government interventions in markets, details of which are provided in Anderson and appendix A. A description of the economies under study and their economic growth and structural changes over recent decades is then briefly presented as a preface to the main section of the chapter, in which the nominal rates of assistance and consumer tax equivalents (NRA and CTE) estimates are summarized across regions and over the decades since the 1950s. These estimates are discussed in far more detail in the regional chapters that follow. A summary is also provided of an additional set of indicators of agricultural price distortions presented in chapter eleven that are based on the trade restrictiveness index first developed by Anderson and Neary (2005). In chapter twelve the focus shifts from countries to commodities, and all the various distortion indicators are used to provide a sense of how distorted are each of the key farm commodity markets globally. Then chapter thirteen uses the study's NRA and CTE estimates to provide a new set of results from a global economy-wide model that attempts to quantify the impacts on global markets, net farm incomes and welfare of the reforms since the early 1980s and of the policies still in place as of 2004. The chapter concludes by drawing on the lessons learned to speculate on the prospects for further reducing the disarray in world agricultural markets.

Agricultural Policy --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Cotton --- Crops --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Exchange Rates --- Exporters --- Financial Institutions --- Food Production --- Food Security --- Gdp --- Global Economy --- Globalization --- High-Income Countries --- Industrialization --- Inflation --- Liberalization --- Livestock --- Low-Income Countries --- Open Markets --- Political Economy --- Poultry --- Privatization --- Risk Management --- Sugar --- Technical Assistance --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Policy --- Urbanization --- Wages --- World Trade Organization

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Prospects for the global economy have become less certain in the second half of 2011, with significant increase in downside risks. Developing countries in East Asia are growing faster than developed countries, but they too are facing challenges due to a combination of reasons including: slower expansion in demand in developed countries; the impact of global uncertainty on investor sentiments; natural disasters; and the withdrawal of stimulus policies. Vietnam's growth slowed in 2011 compared to 2010, though it is still expected to reach around 5.8 percent. The external sector has remained relatively stable. The current account deficit declined in 2011, as export performance outpaced imports and remittances grew robustly. Both import and export values saw a dramatic rise, mostly because of higher commodities prices. External debt remains sustainable, as the current account deficit was more than covered through medium-term capital inflows that are largely non debt-creating (foreign direct investments) or contracted on concessional terms (official development aid). Foreign direct investment inflows continued at a steady pace, although new commitments declined. International reserves increased in the first half of the year while the Vietnamese dong benefitted from a period of relative calm. In the last quarter of the year, however, exchange rate fluctuations increased due to volatility in gold prices, deepening uncertainties and the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency as the year end approaches. In the longer run, Vietnam's ambition to maintain high growth into the next decade will require as bold a set of reforms as the one adopted with Doi Moi. The challenge is arguably more difficult than the previous one, and few countries in the world have accomplished it. Vietnam is endowed with a young and hard-working labor force. This is a vital asset to meet the country's ambitious goals, if the country manages to equip itself with relevant skills, and match it with necessary capital. It also needs a level-playing field to maximize its potential. As people become more educated and production becomes more sophisticated, demands for predictability, trust and a level playing field will grow. Transparency is a critical element in this. Concentration of economic power in a small number of large firms undermines efforts at creating a level playing field. Large firms and industries that circumvent rules to their advantage are promoting corruption, and undermining efficiency, which damages the country's potential. The governance challenges are complex, but Vietnam's medium term outlook will be much better if they are addressed sooner rather than later.

Accounting --- Bank Supervision --- Bankruptcy --- Coal --- Commercial Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Confidentiality --- Corporate Governance --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Depreciation --- Developed Countries --- Developing Countries --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic Growth --- Expenditures --- External Shocks --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Management --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Gdp --- Global Economy --- Gross Domestic Product --- High-Income Countries --- Inflation --- Interest Rates --- International Finance --- Local Government --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Natural Disasters --- Natural Resources --- Public Debt --- Remittances --- Risk Management --- Securities --- Slowdown --- Sovereign Debt --- Surplus --- Technical Assistance --- Transparency --- Uncertainty

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Russia's economic growth slowed in the second quarter of 2011 as the inventory restocking cycle waned. High oil prices have kept the external current account in surplus but capital outflows continue. Gradually improving labor market conditions and access to credit and external borrowing are supporting domestic consumption but consumer confidence and external risks are constraining a more robust growth in domestic demand. Inflation is on a downward trend because of seasonal factors. The short-term fiscal situation is favorable mainly because of high oil prices with an almost balanced budget this year. But a large non-oil deficit requires concerted medium-term fiscal adjustment to replenish fiscal buffers and to move toward long-term sustainable levels of the non-oil deficit.

Agricultural Subsidies --- Agriculture --- Audits --- Banking Sector --- Capital Flows --- Commodity Prices --- Consumers --- Debt --- Developed Countries --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic Growth --- Economic Policy --- Energy --- External Shocks --- Financial Sector --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Global Economy --- High-Income Countries --- Inflation --- Investment Climate --- Labor Market --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mortgages --- Oil & Gas --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Reduction --- Price Stability --- Public Debt --- Public Spending --- Recession --- Securities --- Slowdown --- Sovereign Debt --- Supply Side --- Surplus --- Trade Policy --- Uncertainty --- Unemployment --- World Trade Organization