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The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.

Foreign Direct Investment --- Growth Projections --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomic Outlook --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Political Instability --- Political Risk --- Private Sector Development --- Resource Dependence

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Despite its heavy human, financial, and economic cost, the recent global recession provides a unique opportunity to reflect on the knowledge from several decades of growth research, draw policy lessons from the experience of successful countries, and explore new approaches going forward. In an increasingly globalized world where fighting poverty is not only a moral responsibility but also a strategy for confronting some of the major problems (diseases, malnutrition, insecurity and violence) that ignore boundaries and contribute to global insecurity, thinking about new ways of generating and sustaining growth is a crucial task for economists. This paper reassesses the evolution of knowledge on growth and suggests a new structural approach to the analysis. It offers a brief, critical review of lessons learned from growth research and examines the remaining challenges - especially from the policy standpoint. It highlights how the 2008 Growth Commission Report identifies the stylized facts associated with sustained and inclusive growth. And it explains how the new structural economics provides a consistent framework for understanding the key findings of the Report.

Achieving Shared Growth --- Business cycles --- Classical economists --- Development economics --- Economic Growth --- Economic growth --- Economic historians --- Economic performance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economics --- Economists --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal policies --- GDP --- Growth projections --- Growth theory --- Inequality --- Living standards --- Macroeconomic analysis --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Moral responsibility --- National income --- Per capita income --- Political Economy --- Poverty Reduction --- Wealth --- Wealth creation

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November 1999 - It is difficult to choose the best model for forecasting real per capita GDP for a particular country or group of countries. This study suggests potential gains from combining time series and growth-regression-based approaches to forecasting. Kraay and Monokroussos consider two alternative methods of forecasting real per capita GDP at various horizons: Univariate time series models estimated country by country; Cross-country growth regressions. They evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. They find only modest differences between the two approaches. In almost all cases, differences in median (across countries) forecast performance are small relative to the large discrepancies between forecasts and actual outcomes. Interestingly, the performance of both models is similar to that of forecasts generated by the World Bank's Unified Survey. The results do not provide a compelling case for one approach over another, but they do indicate that there are potential gains from combining time series and growth-regression-based forecasting approaches. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to improve the understanding of economic growth. The authors may be contacted at akraay@worldbank.org or gmonokroussos@worldbank.org.

Actual Outcomes --- Country Variation --- Cross-Country Growth Regressions --- Economic Forecasting --- Explanatory Variables --- First-Order --- Forecast --- Forecast Performance --- Forecasting --- Future Growth --- Growth Forecasts --- Growth Models --- Growth Projections --- Growth Regression --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Popular Empirical Framework --- Relative Forecast Performance --- Sample Forecasting --- Time Series --- Time Series Model --- Time Series Models --- Time Series Variation