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We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that gravity exerted its pull as early as 1700, but the distance effect then attenuated and had almost vanished by 1800. Meanwhile the empire effect peaked sometime in the late 18th century before significantly declining in magnitude. It was only after 1950 that distance would once again exert the same influence that it has today.

Economic history. --- Gravity model of international trade.

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This paper tests the migration transition hypothesis that emigration flows first increase and later decrease with a country's economic development. Using a migration version of the gravity model, this hypothesis is tested on a global panel data set comprising 180 origin and destination countries and a 50-year timeframe (1970-2020). This is the most extensive panel data set used so far to test the migration transition hypothesis. The results confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between development and emigration within a cross-country panel setting. Nevertheless, the migration hump cannot be interpreted as a causal relationship: for a given low-income country, an increase in economic development is not found to lead to higher emigration. For a subsample of 44 countries that have transitioned from low-income to middle-income status, emigration has rather declined with economic development. The migration transition hypothesis is therefore unfounded. Instead, the migration hump appears to be driven by an underlying cross-sectional pattern that cannot be fully controlled: middle-income countries tend to exhibit higher emigration rates than low- or high-income countries. The findings of this paper have important policy implications: development programs can simultaneously promote economic development and reduce emigration.

Economic Development --- Gravity Model --- International Migration --- Labor Market --- Migration Flow --- Migration Hump --- Poverty Reduction --- Trade and Investment

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The Belt and Road Initiative is a new globalization initiative to strengthen economic integration, which provides new opportunities for China's trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road. The research on the influencing factors of trade and the great potential of trade cooperation is of great practical significance for promoting the regional economic cooperation of the countries along the Belt and Road. Specifically, what is the potential for trade between China and the Belt and Road Initiative participating countries? What are the current influencing factors to the realization of trade potential? How significant is the impact? To this aim, this paper takes 80 countries which have signed the One Belt And One Road memorandum with China as the research object, collects the trade panel data of the decade from 2009 to 2018. Then empirically analyzes the trade influencing factors of the import and export trade between China and these countries by augmented gravity model. After that, the trade potential is further estimated. The results show that the GDP of the two countries, the size of their populations, telephone infrastructure, trade freedom, the quality of railroad infrastructure, and whether it borders China have an impact on both import and export. Level of government governance, investment freedom, air transportation and port infrastructure, whether it signs RTA with China has an impact on China's exports. RMB exchange rate, Internet communication infrastructure and geographical distance between the two countries only affect China's imports. Among the 80 markets along the route, 31 countries have great trade potential to be developed. More than half of these are Europe and Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia countries. Finally, based on the research results of this paper, policy enlightenment is obtained.

The Belt And Road Initiative --- Trade Potential --- China --- Gravity Model --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Méthodes quantitatives en économie & gestion

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A model of Covid-19 transmission among locations within a country has been developed that is (1) implementable anywhere spatially-disaggregated Covid-19 infection data are available; (2) scalable for locations of different sizes, from individual regions to countries of continental scale; (3) reliant solely on data that are free and open to public access; (4) grounded in a rigorous, proven methodology; and (5) capable of forecasting future hotspots with enough accuracy to provide useful alerts. Applications to the United States, the Philippines, and South Africa's Western Cape province demonstrate the model's usefulness. The model variables include indicators of interactions among infected residents, locally and at a greater distance, with infection dynamics captured by a Gompertz growth model. The model results for all three countries suggest that local infection growth is affected by the scale of infections in relatively distant places. Forecasts of hotspots 14 and 28 days in advance, using only information available on the first day of the forecast, indicate an imperfect but nonetheless informative identification of actual hotspots.

Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Epidemic Prediction --- Epidemic Spread --- Gompertz Growth Model --- Gravity Model --- Hotspots --- Infection Data --- Pandemic --- Population Sciences --- Public Health Promotion

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This paper examines the concept of trade facilitation in services from the perspective of the recent literature on the determinants of services trade. The aim is to conceptualize trade facilitation in this area as a dimension of international integration beyond the baseline restrictiveness of policy, as captured by indicators of discriminatory market access. The analysis focuses on the role of governance structures, institutions, and transparency in shaping the environment for trading in services internationally. In addition to examining these factors, the paper provides some novel empirical estimates. Using a gravity model, the analysis finds that the ad valorem equivalents of common measures of institutional quality, governance, and transparency are larger relative to measures of sheer policy restrictiveness, frequently a significant multiple. The paper also shows that the ad valorem equivalents of data restrictions are of similar magnitude to policy restrictions in services. The conclusion is that framing discussions of trade facilitation in services around the concept of reducing trade costs - specifically those stemming from areas where improvement is needed in governance, institutions, and transparency - could potentially bring significant benefits in increased integration of the global services economy.

Gravity Model --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Market Access --- Restrictiveness --- Services Trade --- Trade and Services --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade in Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions