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Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Other --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Economic Forecasting --- Revenue forecasting --- Revenue administration --- Budget planning and preparation --- Debt bias --- GDP forecasting --- Tax policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- National accounts --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Budget --- National income --- United States --- Gdp forecasting

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This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for improving GDP forecasting in Uganda. GDP forecasting, ranging from a quarterly to a five-year horizon, must be improved using the tools that are now available at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED). The five-year forecast can be fruitfully used in the medium-term projections of government revenue, deficit and debt. The short-term forecasts should be systematically integrated within the (annual) sectoral forecasts currently being done at the MoFPED. While considering the set of tools under development, the IMF mission recommends the deployment of these tools in a more urgent manner, to stimulate learning-by-doing of local staff.

Uganda--Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labor Economics: General --- Economic Forecasting --- Labour --- income economics --- GDP forecasting --- Total factor productivity --- Labor --- National accounts --- National income --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Uganda --- Economic policy. --- Gdp forecasting --- Income economics

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This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.

Economic forecasting -- Econometric models. --- Interest rates -- Econometric models. --- Monetary policy -- Econometric models. --- Economic forecasting --- Time-series analysis. --- Econometric models. --- Analysis of time series --- Autocorrelation (Statistics) --- Harmonic analysis --- Mathematical statistics --- Probabilities --- Inflation --- Investments: Options --- Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Economic Forecasting --- Finance --- Oil prices --- Asset prices --- GDP forecasting --- Options --- National income --- Derivative securities --- United States --- Gdp forecasting

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This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.

Gross domestic product --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Forecasting --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Economic Forecasting --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- GDP forecasting --- Economic forecasting --- Time series analysis --- Vector autoregression --- Private consumption --- National income --- Consumption --- Economics --- Korea, Republic of --- Gdp forecasting

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High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of for- eign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic ac- tivity. Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re- duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.

Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Externalities --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Finance --- Economic Forecasting --- Private consumption --- Private investment --- Spillovers --- Stock markets --- GDP forecasting --- National accounts --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial markets --- Consumption --- Economics --- Saving and investment --- International finance --- Stock exchanges --- National income --- United States --- Gdp forecasting