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Banking crises and exchange rate regimes : is there a link?
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Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : World Bank,

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Pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability reduces the probability of banking crises, particularly in developing countries.


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Econometrics of exchange rate pass-through.
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ISBN: 9788275533881 9788275533898 Year: 2007 Publisher: Oslo Norges Bank


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Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Domestic Producer Prices : Evidence from Sector-Level Data
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ISBN: 1498332048 1498332056 9781498332040 9781498332057 1498331947 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Motivated by stylized facts pointing to a dominant role of imported inputs in transmitting external price shocks to domestic prices, this paper zooms in to study the pass-through of imported input costs to domestic producer prices. Our approach constructs effective input price indices from sector-level price data combined with sector-level information on input-output linkages. Applying an error correction model specification to sector-level output and input prices, the long-run pass-through rate of effective imported input costs to domestic producer prices is estimated to be around 70 percent in Korea and almost 100 percent in selected European countries.


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Understanding Inflation in Malawi : A Quantitative Investigation
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475586655 9781475586657 1475586612 1475585985 9781475585988 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper focuses on the role of the pass-through of the exchange rate and policydeterminants in driving inflation. Using linear and nonlinear frameworks, the paper finds: (i) after the switch to a floating exchange rate regime in 2012, nonfood prices not only directly influence headline inflation, but also have an significant impact on food inflation via second round effects; (ii) the pass-through of the exchange rate to headline inflation has jumped from zero to 11 percent under the floating regime, after controlling for other factors; (iii) the improved significance of T-bill rates in shaping inflation flags its importance in Malawi’s monetary framework although the monetary transmission mechanism needs further strengthening; (iv) the increased impact of broad money underscores the necessity for fiscal discipline and central bank independence.


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Quality, Trade, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through
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ISBN: 1475527624 1475526431 1475518323 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the heterogeneous response of exporters to real exchange rate fluctuations due to product quality. Our model shows that the elasticity of demand perceived by exporters decreases with a real depreciation and with quality, leading to more pricing-to-market and to a smaller response of export volumes to a real depreciation for higher quality goods. We test the proposed theory using a highly disaggregated Argentinean firm-level wine export dataset between 2002 and 2009 combined with experts wine rankings as a measure of quality. The model predictions find strong support in the data and the results are robust to different measures of quality, samples, specifications, and to the potential endogeneity of quality.


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Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets
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ISBN: 1513587706 1498395708 1513540904 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices using local projection techniques to obtain state dependent impulse responses in a panel of 28 emerging markets. We find significant evidence of non-linearities during episodes of depreciation greater than 10 and 20 percent. More specifically, we find that, after one month, the exchange rate pass-through coefficient is equal to 18 and 25 percent respectively, compared to a coefficient of 6 percent in the linear case. We also investigate the role of temporary vs. permanent shocks and the adoption of an inflation targeting regime in the transmission from exchange rate movements to prices. We perform a set of robustness checks, addressing the presence of outliers and potential endogeneity concerns.


Book
Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime : An Empirical Note from Mexico
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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July 2000 - Empirical econometric evidence shows that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes than on their actual performance. Giugale and Korobow report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence-that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock-in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible. This paper-a product of the Mexico Country Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand policy options open to developing countries for handling macroeconomic volatility in a globalized economy. The authors may be contacted at mgiugale@worldbank.org or akorobow@worldbank.org.


Book
The Exchange Rate Pass -Through to Import and Export Prices : The Role of Nominal Rigidities and Currency Choice
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1475589808 1475510233 1475552408 1475580614 9781475589801 9781475510232 9781475580617 9781475552409 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/226 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Using both regression- and VAR-based estimates, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices for a large number of countries is incomplete and larger than the pass-through to export prices. Previous studies have reported similar results, which give rise to the puzzle that while local currency pricing is needed to account for incomplete import price pass-through, it would not imply a lower export price pass-through. Recent explanations of this puzzle have emphasized markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes. This paper suggests an alternative explanation based on the presence of both producer and local currency pricing. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper shows that a mix of producer and local currency pricing can explain the pass-through evidence even with a constant markup. The model can also explain the observed exchange rate and inflation variability as well as the fact that the regression and VAR estimates tend to be similar.


Book
Estimating VAT Pass Through
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ISBN: 151357258X 1513574965 1513567268 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper estimates the pass through of VAT changes to consumer prices, using a unique dataset providing disaggregated, monthly data on prices and VAT rates for 17 Eurozone countries over 1999-2013. Pass through is much less than full on average, and differs markedly across types of VAT change. For changes in the standard rate, for instance, final pass through is about 100 percent; for reduced rates it is significantly less, at around 30 percent; and for reclassifications it is essentially zero. We also find: differing dynamics of pass through for durables and non-durables; no significant difference in pass through between rate increases and decreases; signs of non-monotonicity in the relationship between pass through and the breadth of the consumption base affected; and indications of significant anticipation effects together with some evidence of lagged effects in the two years around reform. The results are robust against endogeneity and attenuation bias.

Speculative bubbles, speculative attacks and policy switching.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0262061694 9780262061698 Year: 1994 Publisher: Cambridge (MA) : M.I.T. Press,

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Keywords

International finance --- Monetary policy --- Foreign exchange rates --- Speculation --- -336.74 --- 339.743 --- -Foreign exchange rates --- -Speculation --- -politique monetaire --- taux de change --- marche international des capitaux --- politique de taux de change --- eua --- AA / International- internationaal --- 333.613 --- 333.610 --- Money --- United States --- -332.4973 --- Bucket-shops --- Commercial corners --- Corners, Commercial --- Finance --- Gambling --- Commodity exchanges --- Contracts, Aleatory --- Investments --- Stock exchanges --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector. --- Wisselkoersen. Wisselkoerspariteiten. Dubbele wisselkoers. Devaluatie. Revaluatie. Zwevende wisselkoers. Muntslang --- monetair beleid --- wisselkoers --- internationale kapitaalmarkt --- wisselkoersbeleid --- vsa --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties. --- Effectenbeurzen: algemeenheden. --- Rates --- 336.74 --- 339.743 Wisselkoersen. Wisselkoerspariteiten. Dubbele wisselkoers. Devaluatie. Revaluatie. Zwevende wisselkoers. Muntslang --- 336.74 Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector. --- 332.4973 --- politique monetaire --- Effectenbeurzen: algemeenheden --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties --- Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector --- Monetary policy. --- Monetary policy - United States --- Foreign exchange rates - United States --- Speculation - - United States --- Foreign exchange rate

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