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Pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability reduces the probability of banking crises, particularly in developing countries.
Bank failures. --- Financial crises --- Foreign exchange rates. --- Effect of foreign exchange rate on.
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Quantitative methods (economics) --- Money market. Capital market --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Imports --- 330.05 --- 332.456 --- 330.115 --- 336.74 --- International trade --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Econometric models --- Prices&delete& --- Kwantitatieve methoden (economie) --- Geld. Monetaire politiek --- Theses
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Motivated by stylized facts pointing to a dominant role of imported inputs in transmitting external price shocks to domestic prices, this paper zooms in to study the pass-through of imported input costs to domestic producer prices. Our approach constructs effective input price indices from sector-level price data combined with sector-level information on input-output linkages. Applying an error correction model specification to sector-level output and input prices, the long-run pass-through rate of effective imported input costs to domestic producer prices is estimated to be around 70 percent in Korea and almost 100 percent in selected European countries.
Imports --- Consumer goods --- Inflation (Finance) --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Consumer products --- Consumers' goods --- Goods, Consumer --- Commercial products --- International trade --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Producer prices --- Import prices --- Producer price indexes --- Import price indexes --- Price indexes --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper focuses on the role of the pass-through of the exchange rate and policydeterminants in driving inflation. Using linear and nonlinear frameworks, the paper finds: (i) after the switch to a floating exchange rate regime in 2012, nonfood prices not only directly influence headline inflation, but also have an significant impact on food inflation via second round effects; (ii) the pass-through of the exchange rate to headline inflation has jumped from zero to 11 percent under the floating regime, after controlling for other factors; (iii) the improved significance of T-bill rates in shaping inflation flags its importance in Malawi’s monetary framework although the monetary transmission mechanism needs further strengthening; (iv) the increased impact of broad money underscores the necessity for fiscal discipline and central bank independence.
Inflation (Finance) --- Exchange rate pass-through. --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Monetary base --- Exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Money --- Money supply --- Malawi
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This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the heterogeneous response of exporters to real exchange rate fluctuations due to product quality. Our model shows that the elasticity of demand perceived by exporters decreases with a real depreciation and with quality, leading to more pricing-to-market and to a smaller response of export volumes to a real depreciation for higher quality goods. We test the proposed theory using a highly disaggregated Argentinean firm-level wine export dataset between 2002 and 2009 combined with experts wine rankings as a measure of quality. The model predictions find strong support in the data and the results are robust to different measures of quality, samples, specifications, and to the potential endogeneity of quality.
Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rates --- Exports --- International trade --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Export prices --- Exchange rates --- United States
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This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to prices using local projection techniques to obtain state dependent impulse responses in a panel of 28 emerging markets. We find significant evidence of non-linearities during episodes of depreciation greater than 10 and 20 percent. More specifically, we find that, after one month, the exchange rate pass-through coefficient is equal to 18 and 25 percent respectively, compared to a coefficient of 6 percent in the linear case. We also investigate the role of temporary vs. permanent shocks and the adoption of an inflation targeting regime in the transmission from exchange rate movements to prices. We perform a set of robustness checks, addressing the presence of outliers and potential endogeneity concerns.
Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Depreciation --- Exchange rates --- Inflation targeting --- National accounts --- Monetary policy --- Saving and investment --- United States --- Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models
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July 2000 - Empirical econometric evidence shows that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes than on their actual performance. Giugale and Korobow report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence-that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock-in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's simulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible. This paper-a product of the Mexico Country Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand policy options open to developing countries for handling macroeconomic volatility in a globalized economy. The authors may be contacted at mgiugale@worldbank.org or akorobow@worldbank.org.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Currency Board --- Currency Board Arrangements --- Currency Boards --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Economy --- Econometric Evidence --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange Rate Flo Exchange Rate Regime --- Exchange Regime --- External Shock --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crises --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign Exchange Rate --- Foreign Exchange Rates --- Inflation --- International Financial Integration --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Unions --- Open Capital Accounts --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Structural Reform
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Using both regression- and VAR-based estimates, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices for a large number of countries is incomplete and larger than the pass-through to export prices. Previous studies have reported similar results, which give rise to the puzzle that while local currency pricing is needed to account for incomplete import price pass-through, it would not imply a lower export price pass-through. Recent explanations of this puzzle have emphasized markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes. This paper suggests an alternative explanation based on the presence of both producer and local currency pricing. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper shows that a mix of producer and local currency pricing can explain the pass-through evidence even with a constant markup. The model can also explain the observed exchange rate and inflation variability as well as the fact that the regression and VAR estimates tend to be similar.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Exchange rate pass-through. --- Prices. --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Foreign exchange rates --- Imports --- Exports --- Econometric models --- E-books --- International trade --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Export prices --- Import prices --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Currencies --- United States
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This paper estimates the pass through of VAT changes to consumer prices, using a unique dataset providing disaggregated, monthly data on prices and VAT rates for 17 Eurozone countries over 1999-2013. Pass through is much less than full on average, and differs markedly across types of VAT change. For changes in the standard rate, for instance, final pass through is about 100 percent; for reduced rates it is significantly less, at around 30 percent; and for reclassifications it is essentially zero. We also find: differing dynamics of pass through for durables and non-durables; no significant difference in pass through between rate increases and decreases; signs of non-monotonicity in the relationship between pass through and the breadth of the consumption base affected; and indications of significant anticipation effects together with some evidence of lagged effects in the two years around reform. The results are robust against endogeneity and attenuation bias.
Value-added tax --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Foreign exchange rate pass-through --- Pass-through of exchange rates --- Prices --- Added-value tax --- Goods and services tax --- GST (Goods and services tax) --- Tax on added value --- VAT (Value-added tax) --- Sales tax --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Consumption --- Consumer prices --- Unemployment rate --- Consumption taxes --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Spendings tax --- Economics --- Unemployment --- Germany --- Income economics
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International finance --- Monetary policy --- Foreign exchange rates --- Speculation --- -336.74 --- 339.743 --- -Foreign exchange rates --- -Speculation --- -politique monetaire --- taux de change --- marche international des capitaux --- politique de taux de change --- eua --- AA / International- internationaal --- 333.613 --- 333.610 --- Money --- United States --- -332.4973 --- Bucket-shops --- Commercial corners --- Corners, Commercial --- Finance --- Gambling --- Commodity exchanges --- Contracts, Aleatory --- Investments --- Stock exchanges --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector. --- Wisselkoersen. Wisselkoerspariteiten. Dubbele wisselkoers. Devaluatie. Revaluatie. Zwevende wisselkoers. Muntslang --- monetair beleid --- wisselkoers --- internationale kapitaalmarkt --- wisselkoersbeleid --- vsa --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties. --- Effectenbeurzen: algemeenheden. --- Rates --- 336.74 --- 339.743 Wisselkoersen. Wisselkoerspariteiten. Dubbele wisselkoers. Devaluatie. Revaluatie. Zwevende wisselkoers. Muntslang --- 336.74 Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector. --- 332.4973 --- politique monetaire --- Effectenbeurzen: algemeenheden --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties --- Geld. Geldwezen. Monetaire sector --- Monetary policy. --- Monetary policy - United States --- Foreign exchange rates - United States --- Speculation - - United States --- Foreign exchange rate
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