Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Oil discoveries can constitute a major positive and exogenous shock to economic activity, but the resource curse hypothesis would suggest they might also be detrimental to growth over the long run. This paper utilizes a new methodology for estimating growth underperformance to examine the extent to which discoveries depress the growth path of a country following a discovery and prior to production starting. The study finds causal evidence of a significant negative effect on short-run growth and growth relative to counterfactual forecast growth in countries with weak institutions, creating growth disappointments prior to private and public resource windfalls. This effect is termed the presource curse. For a giant oil or gas discovery in 1988-2010, the study estimates an average growth disappointment effect of 0.83 percentage points, measured as the average annual gap between forecast and actual growth over the five years following a discovery. Further, the estimated effect varies by the size of the discovery, increasing to a 1.77 percentage points gap in the case of super giant discoveries. The estimated effect is inversely related to the quality of political institutions, and driven by countries with lower institutional quality at the time of the discovery, consistent with the similar long-run results documented in the resource curse literature. For countries with below-threshold institutional quality, the growth disappointment effect is larger, measured as 1.35 percentage points in annual terms. There is no measured growth disappointment effect for countries with strong institutions. Using the synthetic control method, we confirm our findings for a selection of countries above and below the institutional quality threshold. The findings suggest that studies of the resource curse that focus only on the effects of resource exploitation or examine only long-run growth effects may overlook important short-run growth disappointments following discoveries, and the way countries respond to news shocks.

Economic Growth --- Forecast Errors --- Forecasting --- Institutions --- News Shocks --- Resource Curse

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In recent years, several projects and studies have been launched towards the development and use of new methodologies, in order to assess, monitor, and support clean forms of energy. Accurate estimation of the available energy potential is of primary importance, but is not always easy to achieve. The present Special Issue on ‘Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting’ aims to provide a holistic approach to the above issues, by presenting multidisciplinary methodologies and tools that are able to support research projects and meet today’s technical, socio-economic, and decision-making needs. In particular, research papers, reviews, and case studies on the following subjects are presented: wind, wave and solar energy; biofuels; resource assessment of combined renewable energy forms; numerical models for renewable energy forecasting; integrated forecasted systems; energy for buildings; sustainable development; resource analysis tools and statistical models; extreme value analysis and forecasting for renewable energy resources.

Research & information: general --- short-term forecasts --- direct normal irradiance --- concentrating solar power --- system advisor model --- operational strategies --- central solar receiver --- solar irradiance forecasts --- numerical weather prediction model --- different horizontal resolution --- forecast errors --- validation --- ramp rates --- renewable energy forecasting --- solar radiation --- shark algorithm --- particle swarm optimization --- ANFIS --- nowcasting --- Kalman-Bayesian filter --- WRF --- high-resolution --- complex terrain --- wind --- solar irradiation --- photovoltaic solar energy --- deep learning --- prediction --- biofuel --- risk analysis --- sustainable development --- renewable energy --- biomass --- biotechnology --- anthropogenic waste processing --- energy resource assessment --- tidal-stream energy --- thrust force coefficient --- momentum sink --- unbounded flow --- open channel flows --- shock-capturing capability --- global horizontal irradiance (GHI) --- forecasting --- clearness coefficient --- Markov chains --- weather research and forecasting model --- solar resource --- heat supply of industrial processes --- solar collectors --- economic efficiency --- cross border trading --- Granger causality --- electricity trading --- spot prices --- deformable models --- electric energy demand --- functional statistics --- Kalman filtering --- shape-invariant model --- developing countries --- concentrated solar --- thermochemical --- energy --- renewable energy sources --- climate policy --- forecast --- the European Green Deal

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In recent years, several projects and studies have been launched towards the development and use of new methodologies, in order to assess, monitor, and support clean forms of energy. Accurate estimation of the available energy potential is of primary importance, but is not always easy to achieve. The present Special Issue on ‘Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting’ aims to provide a holistic approach to the above issues, by presenting multidisciplinary methodologies and tools that are able to support research projects and meet today’s technical, socio-economic, and decision-making needs. In particular, research papers, reviews, and case studies on the following subjects are presented: wind, wave and solar energy; biofuels; resource assessment of combined renewable energy forms; numerical models for renewable energy forecasting; integrated forecasted systems; energy for buildings; sustainable development; resource analysis tools and statistical models; extreme value analysis and forecasting for renewable energy resources.

Research & information: general --- short-term forecasts --- direct normal irradiance --- concentrating solar power --- system advisor model --- operational strategies --- central solar receiver --- solar irradiance forecasts --- numerical weather prediction model --- different horizontal resolution --- forecast errors --- validation --- ramp rates --- renewable energy forecasting --- solar radiation --- shark algorithm --- particle swarm optimization --- ANFIS --- nowcasting --- Kalman-Bayesian filter --- WRF --- high-resolution --- complex terrain --- wind --- solar irradiation --- photovoltaic solar energy --- deep learning --- prediction --- biofuel --- risk analysis --- sustainable development --- renewable energy --- biomass --- biotechnology --- anthropogenic waste processing --- energy resource assessment --- tidal-stream energy --- thrust force coefficient --- momentum sink --- unbounded flow --- open channel flows --- shock-capturing capability --- global horizontal irradiance (GHI) --- forecasting --- clearness coefficient --- Markov chains --- weather research and forecasting model --- solar resource --- heat supply of industrial processes --- solar collectors --- economic efficiency --- cross border trading --- Granger causality --- electricity trading --- spot prices --- deformable models --- electric energy demand --- functional statistics --- Kalman filtering --- shape-invariant model --- developing countries --- concentrated solar --- thermochemical --- energy --- renewable energy sources --- climate policy --- forecast --- the European Green Deal --- short-term forecasts --- direct normal irradiance --- concentrating solar power --- system advisor model --- operational strategies --- central solar receiver --- solar irradiance forecasts --- numerical weather prediction model --- different horizontal resolution --- forecast errors --- validation --- ramp rates --- renewable energy forecasting --- solar radiation --- shark algorithm --- particle swarm optimization --- ANFIS --- nowcasting --- Kalman-Bayesian filter --- WRF --- high-resolution --- complex terrain --- wind --- solar irradiation --- photovoltaic solar energy --- deep learning --- prediction --- biofuel --- risk analysis --- sustainable development --- renewable energy --- biomass --- biotechnology --- anthropogenic waste processing --- energy resource assessment --- tidal-stream energy --- thrust force coefficient --- momentum sink --- unbounded flow --- open channel flows --- shock-capturing capability --- global horizontal irradiance (GHI) --- forecasting --- clearness coefficient --- Markov chains --- weather research and forecasting model --- solar resource --- heat supply of industrial processes --- solar collectors --- economic efficiency --- cross border trading --- Granger causality --- electricity trading --- spot prices --- deformable models --- electric energy demand --- functional statistics --- Kalman filtering --- shape-invariant model --- developing countries --- concentrated solar --- thermochemical --- energy --- renewable energy sources --- climate policy --- forecast --- the European Green Deal