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This paper explores the stabilisation properties of fiscal policy in Malaysia using a model incorporating nonlinearities into the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy and real economic activity over the growth cycle. The paper also investigates how output multipliers for government purchases may alter for different components of government spending. The authors find that fiscal policy in Malaysia has become increasingly pro-cyclical over the last 25 years and establish that the size of fiscal multipliers tend to change over the growth cycle. A 1 Malaysian Ringgit rise in government (investment) spending leads to a maximum output multiplier of around 2.7 during growth recessions, and around 2 in normal times. The returns to government spending in Malaysia are greater when the focus is on public investment, as opposed to consumption. Changes in tax policy are less effective in stimulating economic activity than direct government spending. These results provide empirical backing to conjectures in the recent literature implying that procyclicality in fiscal policy reduces the effectiveness of fiscal actions in emerging markets.

Consumption --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Fiscal multiplier --- Investment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Nonlinearity --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Economics --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy

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Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up.

Countercyclicality --- Cycle --- Debt Markets --- Economic Stabilization --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Multiplier --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Procyclicality --- Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measure --- Public Sector Development --- Urban Development --- Urban Economics

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"Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more and more economists think that current theory doesn't hold together, or provide much guidance for how central banks should behave if inflation does break out. Many also worry that central banks have much less power over the economy than they think they do, and much less understanding of the mechanism behind what power they do have. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is a comprehensive new approach to monetary policy. Economist John Cochrane argues that money has value because the government accepts it for tax payments. This insight, he argues, leads to a deep re-reading of monetary policy and institutions. Inflation comes when a government is unable to repay its debts, rather than from mismanagement of the split of debt between money and bonds. In the book, he will analyze institutional design, historical episodes, and compare fiscal theory to the Keynesian and new-Keynesian theory based on interest rate targets, and to monetarism. The book offers an overview and introduction to the range of contemporary monetary economics and history of thought as well as the fiscal theory"--

Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy. --- Prices. --- BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics. --- Accounting rate of return. --- Asset price inflation. --- Bond Yield. --- Central bank. --- Consumer debt. --- Consumer economy. --- Consumption (economics). --- Credit (finance). --- Credit risk. --- Credit spread (options). --- Currency crisis. --- Currency swap. --- Currency union. --- Currency. --- Debt limit. --- Debt-to-GDP ratio. --- Debt. --- Default (finance). --- Diversification (finance). --- Econometrics. --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economic planning. --- Economics. --- Exchange rate. --- Finance. --- Financial correlation. --- Financial economics. --- Fiscal adjustment. --- Fiscal gap. --- Fiscal multiplier. --- Fiscal policy. --- Fiscal space. --- Fiscal theory of the price level. --- Fixed exchange-rate system. --- Functional finance. --- GDP deflator. --- GDP-linked bond. --- Government budget balance. --- Government debt. --- Inflation swap. --- Inflation targeting. --- Inflation tax. --- Inflation. --- Interest Cost. --- Interest rate risk. --- Interest rate. --- Keynesian economics. --- Liability (financial accounting). --- Liquidity premium. --- Macroeconomic model. --- Macroeconomics. --- Marginal rate of substitution. --- Mark-to-market accounting. --- Market Risk Premium. --- Market clearing. --- Market liquidity. --- Market price. --- Microeconomic reform. --- Modern Monetary Theory. --- Monetarism. --- Monetary Theory. --- Monetary authority. --- Monetary reform. --- Monetary system. --- Money market. --- Money multiplier. --- Nominal interest rate. --- Price Change. --- Price controls. --- Price elasticity of demand. --- Price fixing. --- Price index. --- Price level. --- Public finance. --- Quantity theory of money. --- Real business-cycle theory. --- Real interest rate. --- Real versus nominal value (economics). --- Relative value (economics). --- Risk premium. --- Share price. --- Stochastic discount factor. --- Stock valuation. --- Supply (economics). --- Supply-side economics. --- Swap (finance). --- Tax and spend. --- Tax avoidance. --- Tax policy. --- Tax reform. --- Tax. --- Terminal value (finance). --- The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. --- The Wealth Effect. --- Tight Monetary Policy. --- Trade credit. --- Treasury Bill. --- Valuation (finance). --- Value (economics). --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Prices --- Monetary policy