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Tajikistan's economy has recovered strongly after the collapse of the 1990s, but sustaining rapid economic growth over the long term and reducing poverty present major challenges for policymakers. This paper contributes to the debate over the strategic role for fiscal policy to play in meeting these challenges, utilizing the "fiscal space" approach to assess the long-term potential for expanding public provision of growth-promoting goods and services and evaluating the priorities for public spending. It also analyzes the long-term risks to fiscal sustainability, from external public debt and the quasi fiscal deficit of the electricity sector. The paper contends that institutional reforms in key areas, notably public financial management, tax administration, and the energy sector, are crucial for generating fiscal space and for ensuring that higher levels of public spending are translated into stronger economic growth and poverty reduction. The priorities for government spending should be education, health, and the maintenance of the core networks of the existing infrastructure for energy and transport, rather than new public investment projects.

Access to Finance --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Economic growth --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal deficit --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal sustainability --- Poverty Reduction --- Public debt --- Public Disclosure --- Public financial management --- Public provision --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Public spending

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Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.

Capital outflows --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Deficits --- Domestic liquidity --- Economic Stabilization --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- External borrowing --- Federal budget --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal deficit --- Fiscal policy --- Government revenues --- International bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Oil price --- Oil prices --- Price uncertainty --- Public debt --- Public finances --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Reserve --- Reserve fund --- Reserves --- Return

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Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.

Capital outflows --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Deficits --- Domestic liquidity --- Economic Stabilization --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- External borrowing --- Federal budget --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal deficit --- Fiscal policy --- Government revenues --- International bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Oil price --- Oil prices --- Price uncertainty --- Public debt --- Public finances --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Reserve --- Reserve fund --- Reserves --- Return

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This paper examines fiscal outcomes in Eastern and Central European countries before and during the global crisis of 2008-2010. These outcomes are evaluated in the context of overall changes in fiscal institutions and global market conditions. Eastern and Central European countries' situations improved dramatically in the pre-crisis period as tax revenues boomed, and fiscal institutions were reformed. Expenditures increased quite significantly in real terms for some of the countries in the pre-crisis era so that when tax revenues collapsed in the wake of the crisis, the countries were left with large deficits. Institutional reform helped countries manage their fiscal situations better, but the crisis also exposed shortcomings of the status quo. In the post-crisis period, fiscal institutions aimed at promoting fiscal discipline are being strengthened. Governments will also need to take a closer look at the sustainability of current expenditure patterns, particularly the strong emphasis on social expenditures.

Central government --- Debt Markets --- Expenditure --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal consequences --- Fiscal deficit --- Fiscal Institutions --- Fiscal system --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market economy --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Social expenditures --- Subnational Economic Development --- Tax revenues

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In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.

Balance of payments --- Balance of payments crisis --- Capital investments --- Current account deficits --- Debt Markets --- Developing countries --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory & Research --- Expenditure --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal deficit --- Fiscal policy --- Government budget --- Government budget deficits --- Government budgets --- Government deficits --- Government spending --- International Bank --- Living standards --- Macroeconomic stabilization --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Negative shocks --- Public investments --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Tax