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The World Bank has recently adopted a target of reducing the proportion of population living below USD 1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by 2030. This paper reviews different projection methods and estimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifying Ravallion (2013)'s approach in that it introduces country-specific economic and population growth rates and takes into account the effect of changes in within-country inequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles to meeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growth target under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to 3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend support to Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth is not enough and sharing prosperity within and across countries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.
Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Shared Prosperity
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This paper analyzes poverty in Haiti based on the first Living Conditions Survey of 7,186 households covering the whole country and representative at the regional level. Using a USD 1 a day extreme poverty line, the analysis reveals that 49 percent of Haitian households live in absolute poverty. Twenty, 56, and 58 percent of households in metropolitan, urban, and rural areas, respectively, are poor. At the regional level, poverty is especially extensive in the northeastern and northwestern regions. Access to assets such as education and infrastructure services is highly unequal and strongly correlated with poverty. Moreover, children in indigent households attain less education than children in nonpoor households. Controlling for individual and household characteristics, location, and region, living in a rural area does not by itself affect the probability of being poor. But in rural areas female headed households are more likely to experience poverty than male headed households. Domestic migration and education are both key factors that reduce the likelihood of falling into poverty. Employment is essential to improve livelihoods and both the farm and nonfarm sector play a key role.
Absolute poverty --- Agricultural development --- Extreme poverty --- Extreme poverty line --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Poor --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural --- Rural area --- Rural areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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This paper analyzes poverty in Haiti based on the first Living Conditions Survey of 7,186 households covering the whole country and representative at the regional level. Using a USD 1 a day extreme poverty line, the analysis reveals that 49 percent of Haitian households live in absolute poverty. Twenty, 56, and 58 percent of households in metropolitan, urban, and rural areas, respectively, are poor. At the regional level, poverty is especially extensive in the northeastern and northwestern regions. Access to assets such as education and infrastructure services is highly unequal and strongly correlated with poverty. Moreover, children in indigent households attain less education than children in nonpoor households. Controlling for individual and household characteristics, location, and region, living in a rural area does not by itself affect the probability of being poor. But in rural areas female headed households are more likely to experience poverty than male headed households. Domestic migration and education are both key factors that reduce the likelihood of falling into poverty. Employment is essential to improve livelihoods and both the farm and nonfarm sector play a key role.
Absolute poverty --- Agricultural development --- Extreme poverty --- Extreme poverty line --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Poor --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural --- Rural area --- Rural areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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At the outset of China's reform period, the country had a far higher poverty rate than for Africa as a whole. Within five years that was no longer true. This paper tries to explain how China escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies. While acknowledging that Africa faces constraints that China did not, and that context matters, two lessons stand out. The first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture, which will require both market-based incentives and public support. The second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government.
Absolute Poverty --- Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- National Poverty --- National Poverty Line --- Poor --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Smallholder Agriculture
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In 2005, China participated for the first time in the International Comparison Program (ICP), which collects primary data across countries on the prices for an internationally comparable list of goods and services. This paper examines the implications of the new Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate (derived by the ICP) for China's poverty rate (by international standards) and how it has changed over time. We provide estimates with and without adjustment for a likely sampling bias in the ICP data. Using an international poverty line of USD 1.25 at 2005 PPP, we find a substantially higher poverty rate for China than past estimates, with about 15% of the population living in consumption poverty, implying about 130 million more poor by this standard. The income poverty rate in 2005 is 10%, implying about 65 million more people living in poverty. However, the new ICP data suggest an even larger reduction in the number of poor since 1981.
Extreme poverty --- Global poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income poverty --- International poverty line --- National poverty --- National poverty lines --- Poor --- Poverty measures --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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In 2005, China participated for the first time in the International Comparison Program (ICP), which collects primary data across countries on the prices for an internationally comparable list of goods and services. This paper examines the implications of the new Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate (derived by the ICP) for China's poverty rate (by international standards) and how it has changed over time. We provide estimates with and without adjustment for a likely sampling bias in the ICP data. Using an international poverty line of USD 1.25 at 2005 PPP, we find a substantially higher poverty rate for China than past estimates, with about 15% of the population living in consumption poverty, implying about 130 million more poor by this standard. The income poverty rate in 2005 is 10%, implying about 65 million more people living in poverty. However, the new ICP data suggest an even larger reduction in the number of poor since 1981.
Extreme poverty --- Global poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income poverty --- International poverty line --- National poverty --- National poverty lines --- Poor --- Poverty measures --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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Men and women who were born, grew up and died in Ireland between 1850 and 1922 made decisions - to train, to emigrate, to stay at home, to marry, to stay single, to stay at school - based on the knowledge and resources they had at the time. This, the first comprehensive social history of Ireland for the period 1850-1922 to appear since 1981, tries to understand that knowledge and to discuss those resources on the island, for men and women at all social levels, as a whole. Using original research, particularly on extreme poverty and public health, and neglected published sources - local history
Ireland --- Social life and customs --- Social conditions --- Ireland. --- Irish historiography. --- Irish social history. --- emigration. --- extreme poverty. --- folklore. --- marriage. --- public health. --- school. --- stay at home.
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At the outset of China's reform period, the country had a far higher poverty rate than for Africa as a whole. Within five years that was no longer true. This paper tries to explain how China escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies. While acknowledging that Africa faces constraints that China did not, and that context matters, two lessons stand out. The first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture, which will require both market-based incentives and public support. The second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government.
Absolute Poverty --- Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- National Poverty --- National Poverty Line --- Poor --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Smallholder Agriculture
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Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In their paper, "Aid, Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," this key result is derived without requiring extreme assumptions or additional productivity story. The economic framework is a standard neoclassical growth model, based on the familiar Salter-Swan characterization of an open economy, with full dynamic savings and investment decisions. It does require that the model is fully dynamic in both savings and investment decisions. An important assumption is that aid should be predictable for intertemporal smoothing to take place. If aid volatility forces recipients to be constrained and myopic, Dutch disease problems become an issue.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Extreme Poverty --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Incentive Effects --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marginal Productivity --- Open Economy --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Savings --- Side Effects
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Devarajan, Go, Page, Robinson, and Thierfelder argued that if aid is about the future and recipients are able to plan consumption and investment decisions optimally over time, then the potential problem of an aid-induced appreciation of the real exchange rate (Dutch disease) does not occur. In their paper, "Aid, Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," this key result is derived without requiring extreme assumptions or additional productivity story. The economic framework is a standard neoclassical growth model, based on the familiar Salter-Swan characterization of an open economy, with full dynamic savings and investment decisions. It does require that the model is fully dynamic in both savings and investment decisions. An important assumption is that aid should be predictable for intertemporal smoothing to take place. If aid volatility forces recipients to be constrained and myopic, Dutch disease problems become an issue.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Extreme Poverty --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Incentive Effects --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marginal Productivity --- Open Economy --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Savings --- Side Effects
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