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This paper characterizes the trade performance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past 15 years. Cross-section results show that MENA's exports to the outside world were only one third of their potential in recent years, after controlling for the standard determinants of trade. Results from panel data show that MENA's exports have been expanding more rapidly than exports from the rest of the world, offering some evidence of convergence. Still, at historical growth rates, it would take 20 years for MENA countries to reach potential trade. When we exclude natural resources, exports are also only one third of the benchmark, but the improved export performance over time is much slower and implies it could take twice as long to reach potential. Interestingly, while MENA also under-trades within the region, the extent of under-trading is less acute than with the outside world. There is, however, no indication of more rapid regional integration over time, suggesting that recent trade agreements among MENA countries have not stimulated regional trade to a greater extent than external trade. Finally, the report examines intra-industry trade, which has characterized world trade growth over the period. East Asia and Europe show large and rising intra-industry trade, both globally and regionally, reflecting increased trade in differentiated goods and the expansion of supply chains. Despite neighboring these regions, the MENA countries have been largely left out of this transformation.

Export Competitiveness --- Trade Policy

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In China, changing demographics, rising incomes and shifting consumer preferences have resulted in an ever-growing demand for food that is more varied, healthier and of higher quality and this demand is set to persist well into the future. According to International Monetary Fund projections (2019), by 2024, Chinese per capita gross domestic product (GDP, in current prices) will increase to dollar 28,450, from dollar 13,130 in 2019, and the population will increase to 1.5 billion people (United Nations, 2019). The projected urbanization rate will reach 67 percent by 2030, compared to 56 percent in 2015 (Goh and others, 2014). The growing number of consumers in China, that are increasingly more affluent and educated, will continue shifting their dietary preferences to include more protein, fruits and vegetables. Central Asian countries are well placed to be more competitive in satisfying fruit import demand in the growing Chinese markets and will reap economic and social development benefits along the way. For centuries, Central Asia has occupied a position of strategic importance in trade between the East and the West. The region's geographic location, natural resources, untapped yield potential, and the possibility of greater private sector investment through policy reform create the necessary preconditions for the Central Asian countries to increase their agricultural exports to China. As China places an important role on meeting its growing food needs on dynamic agricultural trade and investment cooperation with the Central Asian countries, this results in significant opportunities for the region to increase its presence in the Chinese fruit markets brought by improved infrastructure and higher cross-border investment. For example, according to the recent World Bank report (World Bank, 2019), Belt and Road Initiative transport projects are estimated to increase trade by up to 9.7 percent. Countries that have a comparative advantage in time-sensitive sectors, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, are expected to be the biggest winners.

Access to Markets --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Export Competitiveness

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International trade can promote efficiency, knowledge diffusion, technological progress, and-what ultimately matters most-inclusive growth and poverty reduction. Boosting export competitiveness is inextricably linked with rebuilding the productive sectors of Somalia's economy, generating jobs and incomes, and reducing the country's large structural trade deficits, which have averaged over 80 percent of GDP since 2015. Somalia supplies a limited number of exports to a relatively small set of markets. Its top five export products in 2018 accounted for more than 83 percent of total goods exports. Dominated by live animals, these exports are primarily unprocessed primary commodities that do not generate spillovers to other sectors of the economy and are vulnerable to weather and other shocks. Somalia also exports to a small set of countries: 82 percent of its exports were sold to just five destinations in 2018, mainly the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Somalia's annual goods export revenues could be increased significantly by expanding sales of current exports to new markets and markets where potential remains untapped. Export growth opportunities are greatest for sesame seed and fish. There is also some potential to increase livestock exports by seeking new markets, although econometric analysis suggest that some markets in the Gulf may be saturated. Gums and resins (frankincense and myrrh), fruit, and meat also show potential for increased sales. Countries in East and South Asia present the greatest opportunities for growth. These export opportunities could be prioritized in Somalia's national trade strategy. Limited or unreliable domestic supply constrains many of Somalia's exporters. The World Bank's 2018 Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) presents recommendations for sustainably increasing output of fish, sesame seed, animals, and other commodities that Somalia already exports. To break into new markets, Somali exporters must also invest in gathering information about consumer preferences and policies in unfamiliar markets and establish business relationships with new buyers, shippers, and other partners. The 2018 CEM identifies important roles for public and private sectors in strengthening systems to ensure animal and plant health and developing logistical arrangements to support increased trade flows, which could be reflected in the national trade strategy.

Export Competitiveness --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Trade Policy

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What is the future for agriculture in Peru? Once the principal source of employment and income for much of the population, Peru's agricultural sector has declined in importance as the national economy has grown and urbanized. Economic activity in the sector has continued to grow, but economic activity in other sectors has grown more rapidly, leaving agriculture to make up an ever smaller share of the overall economy. The future of Peruvian agriculture should concern policy makers, for at least five reasons. First, agriculture makes up an important part of the economy, so if agricultural growth decelerates, overall growth will suffer. Second, an expanding agricultural sector diversifies Peru's economy and reduces dependence on extractives, so if the agricultural sector contracts relative to other sectors, economic growth could become more volatile. Third, agriculture-led growth is good for the poor, so if agricultural growth slows, an important means of reducing poverty will be lost. Fourth, Peru relies on food imports to make up production shortfalls, so if agricultural production fails to keep pace with population growth, national food security could be threatened. Fifth, climate-smart agricultural practices can play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering carbon, so if future agricultural practices are not climate smart, an important opportunity to help mitigate climate change will be missed. This report synthesizes current knowledge about the ongoing transformation of Peru's agriculture and food system, assesses the recent performance of the agriculture sector with an emphasis on productivity and competitiveness, and highlights opportunities for enhancing the future contribution of the agriculture sector toward meeting the country's development challenges.

Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Export Competitiveness --- Trade Facilitation

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Armenia's economy is heavily reliant on domestic demand, which is itself driven by remittances that support local construction and consumption. Armenia will need to shift to an export led strategy if it is to move from middle income to high-income status. Because Armenia is a landlocked country with comparatively high trading costs in physical goods, high-tech digital exports will continue to be key to Armenia's growth. This report seeks to identify strategic opportunities for Armenia's private sector in high-tech global value chains (GVCs) and also highlights reforms that could support Armenia's evolution. The study builds on the FY18 Armenia Systematic Country Diagnostic, which identifies value-chain development as a core building block for sectoral growth. Although the report is targeted at policy makers in the Armenian government, sectoral development strategies rely heavily on strong private sector engagement and open public-private dialogue. Armenia's tech community may therefore also take interest in this analysis.

Export Competitiveness --- ICT Economics --- Information and Communication Technologies --- Information Technology