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This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Macroeconomics --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Economic forecasting --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty --- Macroeconomics. --- Phelps microfoundations volume. --- Rational Expectations Hypothesis. --- Real Business Cycles. --- Ricardian Equivalence. --- asset prices. --- bounded rationality. --- economic theory. --- employment. --- expectation formation. --- expectational coordination. --- expectations. --- finance. --- financial crisis. --- financial instruments. --- inflation. --- informational efficiency. --- learning. --- macroeconometric models. --- macroeconomic analysis. --- macroeconomic models. --- macroeconomics. --- microfoundations. --- nonroutine change. --- rational expectations. --- rationality. --- real-time learning. --- unemployment.
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Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on t
Capital assets pricing model. --- Pricing --- Econometric models. --- Arbitrage. --- Asymptotic distribution. --- Autocorrelation. --- Autocovariance. --- Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. --- Bayesian inference. --- Bayesian probability. --- Bond Yield. --- Capital asset pricing model. --- Central limit theorem. --- Collateral Value. --- Conditional expectation. --- Conditional probability distribution. --- Conditional variance. --- Consistent estimator. --- Correlation and dependence. --- Covariance function. --- Covariance matrix. --- Credit risk. --- Credit spread (options). --- Discount function. --- Discrete time and continuous time. --- Doubly stochastic model. --- Dynamic pricing. --- Econometric model. --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economics. --- Equity premium puzzle. --- Ergodic process. --- Estimation theory. --- Estimation. --- Estimator. --- Expectations hypothesis. --- Expected value. --- Forecasting. --- Forward price. --- Forward rate. --- General equilibrium theory. --- Generalized method of moments. --- High-yield debt. --- Inference. --- Interest rate risk. --- Interest rate. --- Investment Horizon. --- Investment strategy. --- Investor. --- Joint probability distribution. --- LIBOR market model. --- Leverage (finance). --- Likelihood function. --- Liquidity premium. --- Liquidity risk. --- Margin (finance). --- Marginal rate of substitution. --- Marginal utility. --- Market Risk Premium. --- Market capitalization. --- Market liquidity. --- Market portfolio. --- Market price. --- Market value. --- Markov model. --- Markov process. --- Mathematical finance. --- Monetary policy. --- Objective Probability. --- Option (finance). --- Parameter. --- Partial equilibrium. --- Portfolio insurance. --- Precautionary savings. --- Predictability. --- Preference (economics). --- Present value. --- Price index. --- Pricing. --- Principal component analysis. --- Probability. --- Real interest rate. --- Repurchase agreement. --- Revaluation of fixed assets. --- Risk aversion. --- Risk management. --- Risk premium. --- Skewness. --- Special case. --- Standard deviation. --- State variable. --- Statistic. --- Stochastic differential equation. --- Stochastic volatility. --- Supply (economics). --- Time series. --- Underlying Security. --- Utility maximization problem. --- Utility. --- Variable (mathematics). --- Vector autoregression. --- Yield curve. --- Yield spread.
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