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Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed written about and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predicting elections, they are in fact the best tool for explaining election results.

Exit polling (Elections) --- Election forecasting --- Polling, Exit (Elections) --- Public opinion polls --- Voting research --- United States

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Election forecasting --- Exit polling (Elections) --- Voting research --- Elections --- Forecasting, Election --- Straw votes --- Forecasting --- Public opinion polls --- Voting --- Voting behavior research --- Polling, Exit (Elections) --- Data processing --- Research

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Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

Public opinion polls --- Election monitoring. --- Election forecasting. --- Political aspects --- Elections --- Forecasting, Election --- Straw votes --- Forecasting --- Exit polling (Elections) --- Election observation --- Monitoring, Election --- Poll watching --- Opinion polls --- Polls, Public opinion --- Public opinion --- Public opinion research --- Social surveys --- Market surveys --- Research

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Public opinion research has been under a great deal of criticism over the last few years as it failed to accurately predict a series of important outcomes around the world. As a result, polls are now assumed to be inaccurate at best, manipulative at worst. Nevertheless, corporations, the media, interest groups and politicians alike continue to rely heavily on them for guidance and strategic insights. The aim of this book is to examine the status of market intelligence in practice and how changes in its different contributing streams—media polling, commercial public opinion research and political polling—are pushing market intelligence into a new phase of development. This book suggests that we are moving to a new phase where the practice of market intelligence will be more akin to market surveillance and this field is on the verge of a major transformation. André Turcotte is an Associate Professor at the School of Journalism and Communication, Carleton University, Canada. He has worked with several polling firms over the years and has provided opinion research advice to several politicians, corporations and organizations.

Elections. --- Political communication. --- Marketing. --- Electoral Politics. --- Political Communication. --- Consumer goods --- Domestic marketing --- Retail marketing --- Retail trade --- Industrial management --- Aftermarkets --- Selling --- Political communication --- Political science --- Electoral politics --- Franchise --- Polls --- Politics, Practical --- Plebiscite --- Political campaigns --- Representative government and representation --- Marketing --- Election forecasting. --- Public opinion. --- Marketing research. --- Marketing research --- Methodology. --- Market research --- Markets --- Research --- Research, Industrial --- Opinion, Public --- Perception, Public --- Popular opinion --- Public perception --- Public perceptions --- Judgment --- Social psychology --- Attitude (Psychology) --- Focus groups --- Reputation --- Elections --- Forecasting, Election --- Straw votes --- Forecasting --- Public opinion polls --- Exit polling (Elections) --- Communication in politics.