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This paper describes the methodology and the data used to compute nominal and real effective exchange rate indices in the International Monetary Fund’s Information Notice System (INS). In particular, it highlights improvements to the INS implemented over 1994-96, including modifications to the computational methodology, use of updated data, and extension of the INS to recent Fund members.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Competition --- Exports --- Exchange rate indexes --- Exchange rates --- Financial markets --- International trade --- United States

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This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study confirms that there is evidence that developments in some sectoral indices—including those of banking and financial sectors—seem to have caused upward pressure on exchange rates. A correlation between some of these variables is also found to be strong across countries in the crisis period, thereby confirming the importance of the linkages between financial markets as a transmission channel of the Thai crisis to the Philippines.

Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- International Finance: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Financial Crises --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Exchange rates --- Stocks --- Asset prices --- Exchange rate indexes --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Currency crises --- Thailand

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The Monetary Authority of Singapore, instead of relying on short-term interest rates or monetary aggregates as its monetary policy instrument, conducts policy by managing the trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI). This paper investigates how this operating procedure actually works. For empirical purposes, it assumes the authorities follow a reaction function that aims the TWI at stabilizing expected inflation and maintaining output at potential. A partial adjustment mechanism is included to dampen the actual changes in the exchange rate. The estimates confirm that the major focus of monetary policy in Singapore is controlling inflation. The estimated changes in the TWI track the actual change relatively well, and the estimated parameters are as expected. Accordingly, they support the hypothesis that monetary policy in Singapore can be described by a forward-looking policy rule that reacts to both inflation and output volatility. The results suggest that Singapore's monetary policy has mainly reacted to large deviations in the target variables, which is consistent with monetary policy's medium-term orientation.

Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Forecasting --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- International Financial Markets --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economic Forecasting --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate indexes --- Economic forecasting --- Currency markets --- Prices --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Foreign exchange market --- Singapore

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This paper analyzes determinants and consequences of FX interventions in the Kyrgyz Republic. Most of the literature on the topic focuses on advanced and emerging economies and this paper provides new evidence from a low-income country. We find that FX interventions take place in response to movements in the exchange rate and its volatility. There is also evidence of “leaning against the wind”, which is more pronounced for relatively larger FX sales and purchases. The “leaning against the wind” is asymmetric toward FX sales and largely reflects leaning against depreciation of domestic currency. We document a varying degree of de-facto exchange rate stability despite the de-jure floating exchange rate regime. During most of the sample, the exchange rate management index was relatively low in line with the floating exchange rate regime, with the exception of the period from 2018 Q4 until the COVID-19 shock, during which the exchange rate management index was relatively high.

Kyrgyz Republic --- Business and Economics --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Currency markets --- Exchange rate indexes --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market

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We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.

Currency crises --- Logits --- Probits --- Biomathematics --- Distribution (Probability theory) --- Probabilities --- Transformations (Mathematics) --- Logit transformation --- Logarithms --- Financial crises --- Currency question --- Foreign exchange --- Prevention. --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- International Finance: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currency --- Early warning systems --- Exchange rate indexes --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Crisis management --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Mexico