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This note derives closed form solutions for exchange rates in terms of fundamentals within a fully credible band exchange rate regime when the fundamentals are driven by Brownian motion and multiple point processes. The inclusion of point processes allows one to relax quite substantially the distributional assumptions about exchange rates implicit in models based on Brownian motions alone, and should therefore prove of use in empirical applications. Models with discontinuous driving processes also differ from the Brownian motion model in that monetary authorities will be obliged periodically to intervene on a large scale in discrete amounts.

Currency --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate modelling --- Exchange rates --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Free-floating exchange rate --- Managed exchange rates

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Although the theoretical relationships are ambiguous, evidence suggestsa strong link between the choice of the exchange rate regime and economicperformance. The paper argues that adopting a pegged exchange rate canlead to lower inflation, but also to slower growth in productivity. Itfinds that on average per capita GDP growth was slightly faster underfloating regimes than under pegged exchange regimes.

Economic growth --- International finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Prices

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The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Bulgaria

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This paper highlights selected recent developments in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that the outlook for commodity prices has improved, and with it the outlook for economic activity beyond 1994; it also notes, however, the need for higher savings and investment to sustain growth over the medium term. The paper also covers two aspects of structural adjustment: the liberalization of exchange and trade systems, which has been extensive and has resulted in a sharp reduction in exchange market distortions; and the momentum of regional integration in the CFA countries and in the Southern Africa region.

Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Currency markets --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market --- South Africa

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This paper examines whether decisions about the appropriate exchange rate regime in six Central American countries were based on longer-run economic fundamentals or on the confluence of historical and political circumstances. To uncover any actual relationship both across countries and across time, we estimate several probit and multinomial logit models of exchange rate regime choice with data spanning the period 1974-2001. We find that theoretical long-run determinants, such as trade openness, export share with the major trading partner, economic size, and per capita income, are adequate, but not robust, predictors of exchange rate regime choice. However, we were not able to establish a statistically significant association between the terms of trade fluctuations or capital account openness and a particular regime in any specification using our sample.

Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Crawling peg --- Conventional peg --- Floating exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- United States