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KEY ISSUES Context: Ethiopia’s investment-led development strategy has delivered robust growth and progress toward Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Restrained fiscal and monetary policies have helped maintain macroeconomic stability, although the financing mode of the continuing large-scale investment through public enterprises could risk undermining macroeconomic stability. A cautious policy stance will be critical in preserving the recent gains. Focus of the consultation: The discussions centered on policies to sustain strong economic growth and promote structural transformation. Issues covered included: (i) the policy mix to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability; (ii) the public sector investment program and its financing; and (iii) financial deepening, export competitiveness and the business climate. Outlook and Risks: Growth is expected to remain strong, driven mainly by agriculture and services. Inflation should continue to remain in single digits, in line with a tight monetary policy. Key downside risks include insufficient financing for infrastructure investment in the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), lower prices of main export commodities, and weather-related shocks, particularly a drought. Policy mix: Staff recommendations focused on sustaining a cautious policy stance, prioritization of public investments and closer monitoring of state-owned enterprises to ensure prudent borrowing in the context of a medium-term debt management strategy, enhancing export competitiveness, greater resource mobilization and development of the financial sector, and a more prominent role for the private sector. Structural improvements in the functioning of the money and foreign exchange market and building foreign reserves to at least three months of imports were suggested to enhance resiliency. The need for greater interest rate and exchange rate flexibility and improved competitiveness of the traded goods sector, including through exchange rate adjustment, was underscored.

Ethiopia -- Appropriations and expenditures. --- Ethiopia -- Economic conditions. --- Ethiopia -- Economic policy. --- Poverty -- Ethiopia. --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of

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A key obstacle to fundamental tariff reform in many developing countries is the revenue loss that it ultimately implies. This paper establishes a simple and practicable strategy for realizing the efficiency gains from tariff reform without reducing public revenues, showing that for a small open economy, a cut in tariffs combined with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes increases both welfare and public revenues. Increasingly stringent conditions are required, however, to ensure unambiguously beneficial outcomes from this reform strategy when allowance is made for such important features as nontradeable goods, intermediate inputs, and imperfect competition.

Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Consumption taxes --- Consumer prices --- Producer prices --- Consumption --- Taxes --- Prices --- National accounts --- Tariff --- Spendings tax --- Economics --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of

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This Selected Issues paper examines the causes of recent inflation in Ethiopia and discusses possible policy responses. Inflation in Ethiopia has reached a historical peak. Following a drought-related surge of food prices in 2003, it receded to single digits but soon turned back up in 2004 and gradually increased. The paper provides an overview of recent inflation developments, and explores the factors contributing to recent inflation, based on fresh studies and the review of current monetary and external developments. The paper also lays out cross-country analysis with countries experiencing high inflation.

Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Prices --- International trade --- Money --- Real exchange rates --- Imports --- Demand for money --- Exports --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of

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Ethiopia’s request for disbursement under the rapid-access component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility is examined. The authorities have embarked upon a tightening of monetary and fiscal policies to facilitate necessary rebuilding of foreign exchange reserves. Wheat has been imported on an emergency basis to dampen domestic inflation expectations and alleviate the impact of high food prices on vulnerable groups. Steep increases in international prices for key imports have exacerbated strains on the Ethiopian economy and pushed foreign exchange reserves to critically low levels.

Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- International economics --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Banking --- Finance --- Imports --- Public enterprises --- International reserves --- Food prices --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- Central banks --- Government business enterprises --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of --- Nationalization

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Economic inclusion is the broad sharing of the benefits of, and the opportunities to participate in, economic growth. It embodies equitable outcomes related to financial well-being as well as opportunities in access to markets and resources, and protects the vulnerable. Economic inclusion is a high priority issue for the IMF. High inequality is negatively associated with macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth—core to the Fund’s mandate in promoting systemic, balance of payments, and domestic stability. Some macroeconomic policies and reforms may have adverse distributional implications, which in turn can undermine public support for reforms. And, interest in distributional issues and inequality has grown among the membership, increasing the demand for the Fund to work in these areas. While the IMF has long recognized the importance of inequality issues, it has adopted in the recent years a more systematic and structured approach. In this regard, a pilot initiative on inequality was launched in 2015, with the third wave of countries currently participating. Once this wave is concluded, staff proposes to incorporate the analysis of inequality-related issues into broader country work where relevant. This note provides an overview of good practices and resources available to staff. The note is consistent with the 2015 Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations and draws also on the 2013 Guidance Note on Jobs and Growth Issues in Surveillance and Program Work. It provides examples of good practices with respect to coverage of inequality-related issues in country reports and lays out the resources available to country teams, both with respect to existing analytical work as well as the availability of data and tools. Coverage of inequality issues in staff reports should be selective and calibrated to the degree of macroeconomic significance. All teams should consider whether inequality issues are relevant, taking into account also the authorities’ priorities, but with no presumption that inequality will be covered everywhere or every year and in-depth coverage anticipated in only a limited number of cases any year. Staff should point to macroeconomic significance where it exists, with analysis focused on aspects with economic implications and specific policy advice limited to areas where there is Fund expertise.

Inequality. --- Unemployment. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economic growth. --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economic development --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economic growth --- Inclusive growth --- Income distribution --- Income economics --- Income inequality --- Income --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- National accounts --- Personal income --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of