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Rutherford, Tarr, and Shepotylo use a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Their model is innovative in that they incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households in the model. This is accomplished because they develop a new algorithm for solving general equilibrium models with a large number of agents. In addition, they include foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in their trade and poverty analysis. In the medium term, the authors find that virtually all households gain from Russian WTO accession, with 99.9 percent of the estimated gains falling within a range between 2 and 25 percent increases in household income. They show that their estimates are decisively affected by liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in business services sectors and endogenous productivity effects in business services and goods. The authors use their integrated model to assess the error associated with a "top down" approach to micro-simulation. They find that approximation errors introduced by failing to account for income effects in the conventional sequential approach are very small. However, data reconciliation between the national accounts and the household budget survey is important to the results. Despite the estimated gains for virtually all households in the medium term, many households may lose in the short term because of the costs of transition. So, safety nets are crucial for the poorest members of society during the transition. This paper-a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade on poverty.

Communities & Human Settlements --- Constant Returns To Scale --- Consumption --- Costs --- Debt Markets --- Development --- Distribution --- E-Business --- Economic Theory and Research --- Economy --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium Prices --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Goods --- Housing and Human Habitats --- Income --- Income Groups --- Investment --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Payments --- Private Sector Development --- Productivity --- Safety Nets --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade --- Trade Policy --- Welfare --- World Trade Organization --- WTO

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A large literature studies the effects of trade policy changes on developing-country exports on household incomes, and recent contributions have increasingly addressed the effects of administered protection, such as anti-dumping duties. In 2003 the United States imposed anti-dumping tariffs on imports of catfish from Vietnam ranging from 37 to 64 percent. As a result, Vietnamese exports of catfish to the U.S. market declined sharply, thus providing a unique opportunity to study the effects of U.S. trade policy changes on Vietnamese families. Using data on Vietnamese households, the authors study the responses of catfish producers in the Mekong delta of Vietnam between 2002 and 2004. The evidence suggests that the rate of growth of income of households that depended on catfish sales was significantly affected. In addition, the anti-dumping duties triggered significant exit from catfish farming. Households adjusted by moving out of catfish aquaculture and into wage labor markets and agriculture, but not into other aquaculture activities. Finally, the evidence also suggests that households found it difficult to change their catfish production levels, and that performance in aquaculture affects other household economic activities.

Agriculture --- Bilateral trade --- Biodiversity --- Consumers --- Dumping --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Environment --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium prices --- Export barriers --- Exports --- Externalities --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fisheries and Aquaculture --- Fishing Industry --- Human capital --- Income --- Income levels --- Industry --- International trade --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Per capita income --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Technical assistance --- Trade barriers --- Trade liberalization --- Trade policies --- Trade policy --- Wildlife Resources --- WTO

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Subsidies and cross-subsidies in the energy sector are common throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Belarus, revenues from an industrial tariff on electricity are used to cross-subsidize heating for households. Input-output (IO) data and a household consumption survey are used to analyze the distributional impacts of this cross-subsidization. This paper illustrates cost shares and electricity-intensity of different sectors and consumption categories and uses the IO data to obtain first-order estimates of the distributional incidence of policy reform. The paper then analyzes distributional impacts of subsidy reform with a Computable General Equilibrium model. Although poorer households benefit from reduced heating costs, the increase in prices of other consumer goods due to higher electricity prices more than offsets the benefits they receive from the subsidies. The analysis finds that the current cross-subsidies are regressive, and policy reform would be highly progressive.

Agriculture --- Approach --- Banking --- Benchmark --- Benchmark data --- Capital --- Capital returns --- Commodities --- Commodity --- Communication --- Competition --- Consumer demand --- Consumer good --- Consumer goods --- Consumer groups --- Consumer prices --- Consumers --- Consumption --- Cost increase --- Cost of electricity --- Cost of funds --- Costs --- Customer --- Customers --- Demand --- Developing economy --- Development policy --- Distribution --- District heating --- Domestic market --- Domestic price --- Economic cooperation --- Economic development --- Economic statistics --- Economic systems --- Economic theory & research --- Economics literature --- Elasticity --- Elasticity of substitution --- Electricity --- Electricity prices --- Emerging markets --- Energy --- Energy price --- Energy prices --- Energy production and transportation --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium analysis --- Equilibrium price --- Equilibrium prices --- Exchange --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- Export market --- Exports --- Externalities --- Factors of production --- Foreign exchange --- Fossil --- Fossil fuel --- Fuel --- Fuels --- Functional forms --- General equilibrium analysis --- Goods --- Heat --- Household analysis --- Income --- Income group --- Income groups --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Inputs --- Intermediate goods --- International markets --- Inventory --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Marginal cost --- Market --- Markets --- Markets & market access --- Multipliers --- Natural resources --- Oil --- Oil products --- Optimization --- Output --- Outputs --- Payments --- Perfect competition --- Price --- Price change --- Price changes --- Price index --- Price levels --- Prices --- Pricing --- Pricing policy --- Pricing scheme --- Private sector development --- Product --- Production --- Production costs --- Production function --- Production functions --- Production increases --- Production of coke --- Production structure --- Products --- Rate of return --- Real estate --- Rent --- Residential energy --- Revenue --- Savings --- Share --- Shares --- Subsidies --- Subsidization --- Subsidy --- Substitute --- Substitutes --- Substitution --- Supply --- Supply costs --- Tariff --- Tax --- Tax rate --- Tax rates --- Taxes --- Theory --- Total output --- Trade --- Transition economies --- Transport --- Transport economics policy and planning --- Trends --- Utility --- Utility functions --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Wealth --- Welfare