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This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries-the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey-to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists.

Deep Trade Integration --- Economic Theory & Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- General Equilibrium Effects --- Insurance & Risk Mitigation --- International Economics & Trade --- Islamic State --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Syrian War --- The Levant --- Trade & Services --- Trade Policy --- Trade Restrictions

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Evaluations of employment programs usually focus on direct impacts on participants. Yet employment programs can have a range of indirect effects that are rarely quantified. This paper analyzes the impact of a subsidized apprenticeship program offering dual on-the-job and theoretical training in Cote d'Ivoire. The experiment simultaneously randomized whether apprenticeship positions opened by firms were filled by the program, and whether interested youths were assigned to a formal apprenticeship. This design allows for estimating direct impacts on youths and indirect impacts on firms selected to host apprentices. The analysis identifies whether individuals forgo other employment or training opportunities, and whether firms replace other workers with program participants. The share of youths in apprenticeships increased by 52.8 percentage points. This estimate accounts for a significant windfall effect: 26 percent of the formal apprentices who were placed substituted out of traditional apprenticeships. The inflow of apprentices into firms increased significantly, but also induced substitution effects, as firms hired 0.23 fewer traditional apprentices per formal apprentice placed. Overall, the net number of apprenticeship positions created was between 51 and 74 percent of the number of formal apprentices placed. In the short term, impacts on earnings were not significant for youths, but firms benefited from an increase in the net value of work provided by apprentices.

Apprenticeship --- Direct Effects --- Education --- Employment --- Employment and Unemployment --- Equilibrium Effects --- Field Experiment --- Indirect Effects --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Skills Development and Labor Force Training --- Small Enterprises --- Social Protections and Labor --- Training --- Vocational and Technical Education --- Vocational Education and Technical Training --- Wage Subsidy