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Periodical
Journal of business paradigms.
ISSN: 25846612 24595004 Year: 2016 Publisher: Rijeka, Croatia : Business School PAR.

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Long-Run Returns to Impact Investing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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There is growing interest in impact investing, the idea of deploying capital to obtain both financial and social or environmental returns. Examination of every equity investment made by one of the largest and longest-operating impact investors across 130 emerging market and developing economies shows this portfolio has outperformed the S and P 500 by 15 percent. Investments in larger economies have higher returns, and returns decline as banking systems deepen and countries relax capital controls. These results are consistent with imperfect integration of international capital markets and the thesis of impact investing that some eligible markets do not receive sufficient investment capital.


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Sovereign Credit Ratings, Relative Risk Ratings, and Private Capital Flows
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper examines the influence of sovereign credit ratings and relative risk ratings on private capital flows to 26 emerging and frontier market economies, using quarterly data for 1998-2017. A dynamic panel regression model is used to estimate the relationship between ratings and capital flows after controlling for other factors that can influence capital flows, such as growth and interest rate differentials and global risk conditions. The analysis finds that while absolute ratings were an important determinant of net capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of relative risk ratings increased in the post-crisis period, which was characterized by easy monetary policies and global liquidity, on the one hand, and greater caution and discretion on the part of investors on the other. The post-crisis effect of relative ratings appears to be driven mostly by portfolio flows. These findings imply that emerging and frontier markets need to pay greater attention to their relative economic performance and not just their sovereign ratings. Tracking changes in relative ratings could help predict macroeconomic disturbances resulting from volatile portfolio capital movements.


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Productivity Convergence : Is Anyone Catching Up?
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Labor productivity in EMDEs is just under one-fifth of the advanced economy average, while in LICs, it is just 2 percent. Average productivity growth in EMDEs has picked up rapidly since 2000, renewing interest in the convergence hypothesis, which predicts that economies with low productivity should close productivity gaps over time. However, the average rate of convergence remains low, with current growth differentials halving the productivity gap only after over 100 years. Behind the low average pace of convergence lies considerable diversity among groups of countries converging toward different productivity levels (convergence clubs). Many EMDEs have moved into higher-level productivity convergence clubs since 2000, with 16 joining the highest club, primarily consisting of advanced economies. These transitioning EMDEs have been characterized by systematically better initial education levels, greater institutional quality, and high or deepening economic complexity relative to their income level, frequently aided by policies to encourage participation in global value chains. Countries seeking to replicate successes, or continue along rapid convergence paths, face a range of headwinds, including a more challenging environment to gain market share in manufacturing production or to increase global value chain integration.


Book
Expansionary Austerity : Reallocating Credit amid Fiscal Consolidation
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper shows how the creation of ceilings on local public debt can increase economic activity. For identification, the paper exploits administrative micro data in conjunction with the introduction of a Mexican law limiting the amount of indebtedness of subnational governments. The analysis finds that states with ex-ante higher public debt have stronger economic growth after the implementation of the law, despite reducing public spending and increasing taxes, albeit at the expense of more extreme poverty. The mechanism for this result is a reduction in crowding out. In states with higher ex-ante public debt, banks reallocate credit away from local governments and into private firms, with strong positive firm-level real effects. The unwinding of this crowding out is stronger for more credit constrained firms and for firms borrowing from banks that are more exposed to local public debt. Furthermore, the impact of the law on economic growth is stronger in states allocating a larger share of public spending to non-infrastructure projects.


Book
Bank Lending Rates and Spreads in Emdes : Evolution, Drivers, and Policies
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper analyzes the main trends and patterns of nominal lending interest rates and lending-deposit interest rate spreads in emerging markets and developing economies. Using data from 140 emerging markets and developing economies, analysis shows that nominal lending rates and spreads declined between 2003 and 2017, with regional heterogeneity. In addition, it finds that less economically and financially developed countries tend to exhibit higher lending rates and spreads. These higher rates tend to be driven by higher spreads, not deposit interest rates. Also, illustrative regressions suggest that relevant correlates of nominal lending rates include inflation, public debt, and policy interest rate (macro-fiscal conditions); overhead costs, nonperforming loans, and non-interest income (banking characteristics); and credit bureau coverage and time to resolve insolvency (business environment). Finally, illustrative decompositions of the level and 10-year change between 2007 and 2017 of nominal lending rates find relative differences across regions. On the decline of nominal interest rates in that decade, rising public debt and nonperforming loans have pushed rates up, which was counterbalanced by a reduction in inflation, the policy interest rate, and overhead costs and a better business environment. Since the global financial crisis, a common global factor has increased in importance and has contributed to the downward trend in nominal lending rates.


Book
Recent Trends in Bank Privatization
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper revisits trends in bank privatization and analyzes their economic impact over the past 25 years. Building on a novel data set of privatization events for 70 developed and developing countries, it shows that bank privatization became more frequent since the Global Financial Crisis, especially in emerging markets such as China and India, but also smaller in that the fraction of a bank's ownership relinquished during privatization events declined. The majority of privatizations happened via public sales in domestic capital markets. The banks that were chosen to be privatized tended to underperform their peers and had weaker asset quality pre-privatization, but the empirical evidence on banks' post-privatization performance is mixed. The paper finds that privatized banks turn toward more traditional banking models and increase credit extension with no apparent negative distributional implications. However, the analysis does not reveal significant differences in bank profitability post-privatization, although differences exist between developed and developing countries. Notably, banks that have been recapitalized prior to privatization perform significantly better afterward privatization.


Periodical
Public sector economics.
Author:
ISSN: 24598860 Year: 2017 Publisher: Zagreb : Institute of Public Finance


Book
Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago. Compared with a decade ago, potential growth has declined 0.8 percentage point in advanced economies and 1.1 percentage point in emerging market and developing economies. The slowdown mainly reflected weaker capital accumulation but is also evidence of decelerating productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. Unless countered, these forces are expected to continue and to depress global potential growth further by 0.2 percentage point over the next decade. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse this trend, including comprehensive policy initiatives to lift physical and human capital and to encourage labor force participation by women and older workers.


Book
Basel III Implementation and SME Financing : Evidence for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper examines the effect of Basel III implementation on the access to finance of small and medium-size enterprises in 32 emerging markets and developing economies. Analyzing rich, repeated cross-sectional data and a panel of matched firm-bank data in a difference-in-differences setting with sample selection adjustment, the authors find a short-term, moderately negative effect of Basel III on small and medium-size enterprises' access to financing. The results suggest that firms with access to bank credit prior to Basel III implementation could have been affected less than firms that were initially on the fringes of financial inclusion-firms with only a bank account. The paper fails to find any additional heterogeneous effects across firm size or age, bank capitalization or liquidity, or across countries that transitioned to Basel III from Basel II versus Basel 2.5. Overall, the initial conditions of the banking system as well as of complementary business and financial regulation can co-determine the size of short-term costs from the newly implemented global financial regulation in emerging markets and developing economies.

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