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Following the guidance on the Board of Governors Resolution No. 72-1 (December 2016), on September 21, 2018, the Executive Board discussed and adopted its third semi-annual report on progress on the Fifteenth Review. The report covered additional issues relating to both the adequacy of Fund resources and the quota formula and realigning quota shares, discussed in an informal meeting on July 30, 2018.
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This paper studies the role of an increase in foreign exchange reserves in reducing currency volatility for emerging market countries. The study employs a panel of 28 countries over the period 1986-2002. Several control variables are introduced in the regressions to account for other factors affecting exchange rate volatility (monetary and external indicators as well as conventional macroeconomic fundamentals). The paper controls for the endogeneity induced by the role of the exchange rate regime, since the regime can affect both the level of reserves and exchange rate volatility. The results provide ample support for the proposition that holding adequate reserves reduces exchange rate volatility. The effect is strong and robust; moreover, it is nonlinear and appears to operate through a signaling effect.
Foreign exchange administration. --- Foreign exchange --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Real effective exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Colombia
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Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.
Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Export performance --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- International trade --- Trade: General --- China, People's Republic of
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At the time of the 2005 Review of the Fund’s Transparency Policy, the Executive Board requested regular updates on trends in implementing the transparency policy. The tables in this report provide an overview of recent developments, reflecting information on documents considered by the Board in 2017 and updating the previous annual report on Key Trends. Deeper analysis of these trends is undertaken in the context of periodic reviews of the Fund’s Transparency Policy.
Monetary policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Economic integration --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Monetary unions --- Mongolia
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Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Exchange rates --- Consumer prices --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Prices --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- United States
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We calculate indexes of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indexes for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political autonomy of the central banks in emerging market and developing countries. Our analysis confirms that greater CBA has on average helped to maintain low inflation levels. The paper identifies four broad principles of central bank autonomy that have been shared by the majority of countries. Significant differences exist in the area of banking supervision where many central banks have retained a key role. Finally, we discuss the sequencing of reforms to separate the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banking --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Central bank autonomy --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Central bank credit --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Prices --- United Kingdom --- Banks and banking, Central. --- Monetary policy.
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The objective of this paper is to discuss the key issues relating to the development of local corporate bond markets. We examine the requirements for local corporate bond market development, and compare and contrast experiences across both mature and emerging markets. We suggest that core aspects such as benchmarking, corporate governance and disclosure, credit risk pricing, the availability of reliable trading systems, and the development of hedging instruments are fundamental for improving the breadth and depth of corporate debt markets. The demand and supply of corporate bonds are dependent on factors such as the investor base, both local and foreign, and government policies toward the issuance process and associated costs, as well as the taxation regime. The sequencing of reforms is key to market development.
Bank loans. --- Bonds. --- Corporate debt. --- Corporate governance. --- Credit -- Management. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Securities markets --- Corporate bonds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Bonds --- Securities --- Capital market --- Financial services industry --- Financial instruments --- United States --- Credit --- Management.
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This paper examines whether the six largest and most active emerging stock markets are informationally efficient with respect to changes in the money supply. To investigate if stock prices fully reflect the information contained in money supply changes, two different econometric techniques are employed. First, direct Granger-causality tests are used, which locus on the short-run relationship between stock prices and money. Second, the long-run behavior of the two variables is studied by means of co-integration tests. The results suggest that at least for two markets profitable trading rules can be developed to earn consistently higher-than-normal rates of return.
Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Stock markets --- Asset prices --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Monetary base --- Price indexes --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Money --- Stock exchanges --- Financial services industry --- Money supply --- China, People's Republic of
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The paper analyzes and quantifies the importance of sovereign risk in determining corporate default premia (yield spreads). It also investigates the extent to which the practice by rating agencies and banks of not rating companies higher than their sovereign ("country or sovereign ceiling") is reflected in the yields of South African local-currency-denominated corporate bonds. The main findings are: (i) sovereign risk appears to be the single most important determinant of corporate default premia in South Africa; (ii) the sovereign ceiling (in local-currency terms) does not apply in the spreads of the industrial multinational companies in the sample; and (iii) consistent with rating agency policy, however, the sovereign ceiling appears to apply in the spreads of most financial companies in the sample.
Corporations -- Finance. --- Country risk -- South Africa. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- South Africa -- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Finance --- Corporate bonds --- Bonds --- Debt default --- Sovereign bonds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Debts, External --- Financial services industry --- South Africa --- Country risk --- Corporations --- Finance. --- Economic conditions.
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Within a broad framework for analyzing portfolio capital flows to developing countries, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of equity markets in six Middle Eastern countries. The analysis, based primarily on a range of quantitative indicators, identifies the principal characteristics of these markets, including relative to international comparators, and examines associated structural features. This, along with an analysis of the informational efficiency of selected markets in the region, provides a basis for the subsequent review of policies for enhancing the role of equity markets in the macroeconomy of Middle Eastern countries.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- International Financial Markets --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Stocks --- Capital markets --- International capital markets --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Capital market --- Financial services industry --- Jordan
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