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This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.
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This paper estimates a model of household-level demand for electricity services and electricity demand in the Indian state of Rajasthan using a combination of household-level survey and administrative data. The model incorporates customer-level demographic characteristics, billing cycle-level weather variables, and the fact that households face increasing block prices of electricity. The model allows estimating consumer response to price changes by four categories of energy services demand, namely, heating and cooling, lighting, and for domestic and business end-uses. The knowledge of demand response across different end-use helps in differentiating the impact of price changes along the income distribution. The model finds that the demand for heating and cooling energy is the most price inelastic and income elastic service, whereas the demand for domestic end-use is the most price elastic and income inelastic service of all four categories. The structural demand model also helps in comparing the welfare implications of current energy tariffs to those based on normative principles of efficient retail electricity pricing. For this analysis, first, the social marginal cost of electricity is calculated using publicly available data on generation, transmission, and distribution losses and emissions. The social marginal cost estimate, in combination with observable household characteristics, is then used to examine alternative tariff structures that are more affordable, equitable, and revenue sufficient for the utility than current price structure. An alternative tariff design, comprising of an energy price set to the social marginal cost of electricity and a fixed cost component determined by proxy indicators of household willingness to pay, performs better on the above parameters than the current schedule. Other sources of technical losses, related to transmission or distribution, are not studied in this paper.
Electric Power --- Electricity Demand --- Energy --- Energy and Poverty Alleviation --- Energy Demand --- Energy Policies and Economics --- Energy Price --- Energy Pricing --- Energy Utility
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Albania is among the most vulnerable countries to external energy shocks and climatic conditions, because of its high dependency on hydropower for electricity. Given highly volatile international energy prices and expected global warming, it is becoming increasingly important to manage the demand for electricity. However, the country has long been faced with a significant problem of electricity metering. About one-third of total energy is lost for technical and nontechnical reasons. This paper estimates the residential demand function by applying a two-stage system equation method for an endogenous censored variable, because the lack of metering makes the electricity consumption partially observable for the econometrician. It is found that metering is important to curb non-essential electricity use by households. The electricity demand could also be reduced by raising the first block rate and lowering the second block rate and the threshold between the two blocks. In addition, weather conditions and home appliance ownership would affect the demand for electricity. But the latter looks more influential than the former.
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Albania is among the most vulnerable countries to external energy shocks and climatic conditions, because of its high dependency on hydropower for electricity. Given highly volatile international energy prices and expected global warming, it is becoming increasingly important to manage the demand for electricity. However, the country has long been faced with a significant problem of electricity metering. About one-third of total energy is lost for technical and nontechnical reasons. This paper estimates the residential demand function by applying a two-stage system equation method for an endogenous censored variable, because the lack of metering makes the electricity consumption partially observable for the econometrician. It is found that metering is important to curb non-essential electricity use by households. The electricity demand could also be reduced by raising the first block rate and lowering the second block rate and the threshold between the two blocks. In addition, weather conditions and home appliance ownership would affect the demand for electricity. But the latter looks more influential than the former.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is posing unprecedented challenges, making it difficult for policy makers to design appropriate policies. In this context, real-time information can play a most valuable role for policy makers in developing countries, particularly since official economic indicators, such as the evolution of GDP and unemployment, not only are released with considerable delays, but also are not always fully reliable. This paper follows the literature by using the dependent variable electricity consumption per capita as a proxy measure of economic activity in the short run. Based on this method, it examines the short-run economic impact of the pandemic itself, as well as the public health restrictions that were adopted to control the outbreak and the macro-economic measures applied to revive the economy. The analysis confirms the significant cost of lockdown measures in terms of reduction in economic activity but finds that the spread of the disease itself had an economic impact distinct from that of the lockdown measures. The analysis shows that the use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies also played a key role in mitigating such an impact, driving some initial recovery. Finally, the evidence points to a complete structural break in economic activity at the onset of the lockdown period.
Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Electric Power --- Electricity --- Electricity Demand --- Energy --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Demand --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Pandemic Impact --- Power Sector
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The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting. In light of the above, this Special Issue collects the latest research on relevant topics, in particular in energy demand forecasts, and the use of advanced optimization methods and big data techniques. Here, by energy, we mean any kind of energy, e.g., electrical, solar, microwave, or wind
Research & information: general --- Technology: general issues --- deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression --- deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression
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April 2000 - The natural gas pipelines between Argentina and Chile are large-scale investments in competitive environments. Jadresic, a former minister of energy in Chile, argues that a competitive energy sector and free entry were important policy initiatives to spur the cross-border investments that have benefited Chile's energy sector and environment. Increasing demand for clean energy sources is expanding investment in natural gas infrastructure around the world. Many international projects involve pipelines connecting energy markets in two or more countries. A key feature of investment taking place in Latin America is the convergence of gas and electricity markets. Many projects are being developed to supply gas to new power generation plants needed to meet electricity demand. Construction of a pipeline over the Andes mountains to supply gas from Argentina to energy markets in central Chile was an idea long unfulfilled for political, economic, and technical reasons. Great changes have now taken place in a very short time. Jadresic discusses both the achievements and the challenges to be faced by pipeline developers and Chile's energy sector. He details the benefits of the cooperative effort to consumers in terms of lower energy prices, higher environmental standards, and a more reliable energy system. The experience in Latin America's Southern Cone shows how technological innovation, economic deregulation, and regional integration make it possible to build major international gas pipeline projects within a competitive framework and without direct state involvement. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Advisory Services Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze and disseminate the principles of, and good practice for, promoting competition in infrastructure. The author may be contacted at jadresic@creuna.cl.
Coal --- Coal Mines --- Electricity --- Electricity Demand --- Electricity System --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Markets --- Energy Needs --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Industry --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Infrastructure Regulation --- Investment --- Investments --- Natural Gas --- Natural Gas Infrastructure --- Natural Gas Pipelines --- Oil --- Oil and Gas Industry --- Pipeline --- Pipeline Projects --- Power --- Power Generation --- Power Generators --- Water and Industry --- Water Resources
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The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting. In light of the above, this Special Issue collects the latest research on relevant topics, in particular in energy demand forecasts, and the use of advanced optimization methods and big data techniques. Here, by energy, we mean any kind of energy, e.g., electrical, solar, microwave, or wind
deep learning --- energy demand --- temporal convolutional network --- time series forecasting --- time series --- forecasting --- exponential smoothing --- electricity demand --- residential building --- energy efficiency --- clustering --- decision tree --- time-series forecasting --- evolutionary computation --- neuroevolution --- photovoltaic power plant --- short-term forecasting --- data processing --- data filtration --- k-nearest neighbors --- regression --- autoregression --- n/a
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April 2000 - The natural gas pipelines between Argentina and Chile are large-scale investments in competitive environments. Jadresic, a former minister of energy in Chile, argues that a competitive energy sector and free entry were important policy initiatives to spur the cross-border investments that have benefited Chile's energy sector and environment. Increasing demand for clean energy sources is expanding investment in natural gas infrastructure around the world. Many international projects involve pipelines connecting energy markets in two or more countries. A key feature of investment taking place in Latin America is the convergence of gas and electricity markets. Many projects are being developed to supply gas to new power generation plants needed to meet electricity demand. Construction of a pipeline over the Andes mountains to supply gas from Argentina to energy markets in central Chile was an idea long unfulfilled for political, economic, and technical reasons. Great changes have now taken place in a very short time. Jadresic discusses both the achievements and the challenges to be faced by pipeline developers and Chile's energy sector. He details the benefits of the cooperative effort to consumers in terms of lower energy prices, higher environmental standards, and a more reliable energy system. The experience in Latin America's Southern Cone shows how technological innovation, economic deregulation, and regional integration make it possible to build major international gas pipeline projects within a competitive framework and without direct state involvement. This paper - a product of Private Participation in Infrastructure, Private Sector Advisory Services Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze and disseminate the principles of, and good practice for, promoting competition in infrastructure. The author may be contacted at jadresic@creuna.cl.
Coal --- Coal Mines --- Electricity --- Electricity Demand --- Electricity System --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Markets --- Energy Needs --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Industry --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Infrastructure Regulation --- Investment --- Investments --- Natural Gas --- Natural Gas Infrastructure --- Natural Gas Pipelines --- Oil --- Oil and Gas Industry --- Pipeline --- Pipeline Projects --- Power --- Power Generation --- Power Generators --- Water and Industry --- Water Resources
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Water is necessary to produce energy, and energy is required to pump, treat, and transport water. The energy–water nexus examines the interactions between these two inextricably linked elements. This Special Issue aims to explore a single "system of systems" for the integration of energy systems. This approach considers the relationships between electricity, thermal, and fuel systems; and data and information networks in order to ensure optimal integration and interoperability across the entire spectrum of the energy system. This framework for the integration of energy systems can be adapted to evaluate the interactions between energy and water. This Special Issue focuses on the analysis of water interactions with and dependencies on the dynamics of the electricity sector and the transport sector
History of engineering & technology --- waste heat recovery --- absorption cooling --- water–energy nexus --- steelworks --- TRNSYS --- non-equilibrium molecular dynamics --- deformed carbon nanotubes --- deformed boron nitride nanotubes --- water transport --- diffusion --- Z-distortion --- XY-distortion --- screw distortion --- oil/water separation --- superhydrophilic/underwater-superoleophobic membranes --- opposite properties --- superhydrophobicity/superoleophilicity --- selective wettability --- micro/nanoscale composite structure --- virtual water network --- inter-provincial electricity transmission --- structural decomposition analysis --- electricity-water nexus --- cooling tower --- response surface model --- water --- power plant --- decarbonization --- energy concepts --- long-term energy storage --- power-to-gas --- power-to-X --- wastewater treatment --- anaerobic digestion --- water-energy nexus --- demand response --- energy consumption optimization --- multi-objective model --- urban water system --- local water supply --- electricity demand --- index decomposition analysis
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