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Book
Rational Frenzies and Crashes
Authors: --- ---
Year: 1991 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Most markets clear through a sequence of sales rather than through a Walrasian auctioneer. Because buyers can decide between buying now or later, rather than only now or never, buyers' current 'willingness to pay' is much more sensitive to price than is the demand curve. A consequence is that markets will be extremely sensitive to new information, leading to both 'frenzies, " where demand feeds upon itself, and "crashes," where price drops discontinuously. Although no buyer's independent reservation value reveals much about overall demand, a small increase in one such value can cause a large increase or decrease in average price.


Book
Good News for Value Stocks : Further Evidence on Market Efficiency
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 1995 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper examines the hypothesis that the superior return to so-called value stocks is the result of expectational errors made by investors. We study stock price reactions around earnings announcements for value and glamour stocks over a 5 year period after portfolio formation. The announcement returns suggest that a significant portion of the return difference between value and glamour stocks is attributable to earnings surprises that are systematically more positive for value stocks. The evidence is inconsistent with a risk-based explanation for the return differential.


Book
Assessing Dynamic Efficiency : Theory and Evidence
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 1986 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The issue of dynamic efficiency is central to analyses of capital accumulation and economic growth. Yet the question of what operating characteristics of an economy subject to productivity shocks should be examined to determine whether or not it is efficient has not been resolved. This paper develops criterion based on observables for determining whether or not an economy is dynamically efficient. The criterion involves a comparison of the cash flows generated by capital with the volume of investment. Its application to the United States economy and the economies of other major OECD nations suggests that they are dynamically efficient.


Book
Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
Authors: ---
Year: 1998 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology and anthropology. The behavioral principles discussed are: prospect theory, regret and cognitive dissonance mental compartments, overconfidence, over- and underreaction, representativeness heuristic disjunction effect, gambling behavior and speculation, perceived irrelevance of history thinking, quasi-magical thinking, attention anomalies, the availability heuristic contagion, and global culture.


Book
Fairs and Markets in the Roman Empire : Economic and Social Aspects of Periodic Trade in a Pre-Industrial Society.
Author:
ISBN: 9789004525573 Year: 1993 Publisher: Boston : BRILL,

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Book
Neoclassical Finance
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ISBN: 1282607472 9786612607479 1400830206 Year: 2009 Publisher: Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press,

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Neoclassical Finance provides a concise and powerful account of the underlying principles of modern finance, drawing on a generation of theoretical and empirical advances in the field. Stephen Ross developed the no arbitrage principle, tying asset pricing to the simple proposition that there are no free lunches in financial markets, and jointly with John Cox he developed the related concept of risk-neutral pricing. In this book Ross makes a strong case that these concepts are the fundamental pillars of modern finance and, in particular, of market efficiency. In an efficient market prices reflect the information possessed by the market and, as a consequence, trading schemes using commonly available information to beat the market are doomed to fail. By stark contrast, the currently popular stance offered by behavioral finance, fueled by a number of apparent anomalies in the financial markets, regards market prices as subject to the psychological whims of investors. But without any appeal to psychology, Ross shows that neoclassical theory provides a simple and rich explanation that resolves many of the anomalies on which behavioral finance has been fixated. Based on the inaugural Princeton Lectures in Finance, sponsored by the Bendheim Center for Finance of Princeton University, this elegant book represents a major contribution to the ongoing debate on market efficiency, and serves as a useful primer on the fundamentals of finance for both scholars and practitioners.


Book
Do We Really Know That Financial Markets Are Efficient?
Authors: ---
Year: 1982 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper examines the power of statistical tests commonly used to examine the efficiency of speculative markets. It shows that for markets with "long horizons" such as the stock markets, or the market for long term bonds, these tests have very low power. Market valuations can differ substantially and persistently from the rational expectation of the present value of cash flows without leaving statistically discernible traces in the pattern of ex-post returns. This observation also suggests that speculation is unlikely to insure rational valuations, since similar problems of identification plague both financial economists and would-be speculators.


Book
The new finance : overreaction, complexity, and uniqueness
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ISBN: 0131327895 9780131327894 Year: 2004 Publisher: Upper Saddle River: Pearson/Prentice Hall,

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Book
The Modigliani and Miller Theorem and Market Efficiency
Authors: ---
Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Most of the recent literature on risk management and capital structure assumes that markets are perfect, i.e., efficient and complete. This paper presents anecdotal evidence that suggests that different capital markets (e.g., debt, equity and warrants markets) may not be perfectly integrated, and discusses the implications of this lack of integration on financing strategies. I argue that although models that assume perfect markets are sufficient to explain cross-sectional differences in financing and risk management choices within an economy, that issues relating to market conditions may be necessary to explain differences in these choices across countries and across time.


Book
Stock market efficiency: theory, evidence and implications
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ISBN: 0860036197 Year: 1985 Publisher: Oxford

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