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Para los gobiernos de muchos paises de la region de America Latina y el Caribe ha sido problematico el manejo de la produccion de recursos naturales y de sus repetidos ciclos de bonanzas y crisis. 'Los recursos naturales en America Latina y el Caribe Mas alla de bonanzas y crisis?', es un libro que trata sobre las grandes preocupaciones asociadas con la dependencia de los bienes primarios, en el que se resume el estado del arte en la bibliografia existente y que llena los vacios de conocimiento con nuevos analisis. En el informe se encuentra que algunos efectos negativos comunmente aceptados de la dependencia de los recursos naturales son en gran parte mitos y que otros, en cambio, son realidades. Los temas cubiertos en este estudio incluyen el crecimiento fiscal a largo plazo, la volatilidad fiscal, los impactos institucionales y los efectos ambientales y sociales. En el se analizan tambien las implicaciones para el desarrollo y las politicas en la region.
Commodities --- Economic Growth --- Economic Welfare --- Metals --- Mines
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Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform, the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much more important than that between varieties from different countries.
Aggregation --- Agriculture --- Debt Markets --- Distortions --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economic Welfare Measurement --- Free Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Rural development --- Trade Policy --- Trade Reform --- Trade Restrictiveness
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Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform, the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much more important than that between varieties from different countries.
Aggregation --- Agriculture --- Debt Markets --- Distortions --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economic Welfare Measurement --- Free Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Rural development --- Trade Policy --- Trade Reform --- Trade Restrictiveness
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This paper uses a rural household survey dataset collected in 2006 and 2008 to investigate the impact of a market-based land resettlement project in southern Malawi. The program provided a conditional cash and land transfer to poor families to relocate to larger plots of farm land. The average treatment effect of the program is estimated using a difference-in-difference matching technique based on propensity score matching; qualitative information complement the analysis to ensure unobservable characteristics do not bias the findings. As expected, the results show a significant effect on landholdings and agricultural production, with land size increasing and maize production increasing by more than 100 kilograms relative to the control. However, the impacts on food security and asset holdings were mixed. Households that relocated great distances had systematically lower impacts than those households that stayed within their district of origin because they had to adapt to unfamiliar agro-ecological, cultural, and market environments. Impacts also varied across gender of the household head; female-headed beneficiary households increased their productive and consumption assets significantly, while male-headed households increased their asset holdings less so.
Agricultural production --- Arable land --- Capital formation --- Comparative analysis --- Cultivable land --- Debt Markets --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- ECONOMIC WELFARE --- Economics --- Effective use --- Environmental --- Environmental Economics and Policies --- Environments --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial resources --- Labor inputs --- Land productivity --- Market prices --- Policy makers --- Poverty Reduction --- Property Rights --- Resource management --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Weather patterns
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April 2000 - Environmental improvements should be sought from different polluters (public or private, producer or consumer, rich or poor) at the same cost, regardless of the nature of the polluting activity. Under a plausible structure of monitoring costs, emissions standards play a central role. Eskeland brings together two of government's primary challenges: environmental protection and taxation to generate revenues. If negative externalities can be reduced not only by changes in consumption patterns but also by making each activity cleaner (abatement efforts), how shall inducements to various approaches be combined? If negative externalities are caused by agents as different as consumers, producers, and government, how does optimal policy combine inducements to reduce pollution? Intuitively it seems right to tax emissions neutrally, based on marginal damages - no matter which activity pollutes or whether the polluter is rich or poor, consumer or producer, private or public. Eskeland provides a theoretical basis for such simplicity. Three assumptions are critical to his analysis: Returns to scale do not influence the traditional problem of revenue generation; Consumers have equal access to pollution abatement opportunities (but he also relaxes this assumption); Planners can differentiate policy instruments (emission taxes or abatement standards) by polluting good, and by whether the polluter is a consumer, producer, or government, but they cannot differentiate such instruments (or commodity taxes) by personal characteristics or make them nonlinear in individual emissions. Among Eskeland's findings and conclusions: Abatement efforts and consumption adjustments at all stages are optimally stimulated by a uniform emission tax levied simply where emissions occur. It simplifies things that optimal abatement is independent of whether the car is used by government, firms, or households - for weddings or for work. It also simplifies implementation that the stimulus to abatement at one stage (say, the factory) is independent of whether it yields emission reductions from the factory or from others (say, from car owners who buy the factory's products). Finally, ministers of finance and of the environment should coordinate efforts, but they need not engage in each other's business. The minister of environment need not know which commodities are elastic in demand and thus would bear a low commodity tax. The finance minister need not know which commodities or agents pollute or who pays emission taxes. This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to establish principles for public intervention. The author may be contacted at geskeland@worldbank.org.
Commodity Taxes --- Economic Welfare --- Economics --- Efficiency --- Emission Standards --- Emission Tax --- Emissions --- Environment --- Environmental --- Environmental Economics and Policies --- Environmental Management --- Environmental Protection --- Externalities --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Marginal Costs --- Polluters --- Pollution --- Pollution Abatement --- Pollution Management and Control --- Production --- Revenue --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies --- Taxes
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Community-driven development programs are a popular model for service delivery and socioeconomic development, especially in countries reeling from civil strife. Despite their popularity, the evidence on their impact is mixed at best. Most studies thus far are based on data collected during, or shortly after, program implementation. Community-driven development's theory of change, however, allows for a longer time frame for program exposure to produce impact. This study examines the longer term impact of a randomized community-driven development program implemented in 1,250 villages in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between 2007 and 2012. The study team returned to these villages in 2015, eight years after the onset of the program. The study finds evidence of the physical endurance of infrastructure built by the program. However, it finds no evidence that the program had an impact on other dimensions of service provision, health, education, economic welfare, women's empowerment, governance, and social cohesion. These findings suggest that, although community-driven development programs may effectively deliver public infrastructure, longer term impacts on economic development and social transformation appear to be limited.
Civil Conflict --- Community Development and Empowerment --- Community-Driven Development --- Conflict and Development --- Economic Development --- Economic Welfare --- Education --- Education Quality --- Effective Schools and Teachers --- Field Experiment --- Gender --- Gender and Development --- Health Service Delivery --- Health Service Management and Delivery --- Public Infrastructure --- Service Delivery --- Social Cohesion --- Women's Empowerment
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This paper uses a rural household survey dataset collected in 2006 and 2008 to investigate the impact of a market-based land resettlement project in southern Malawi. The program provided a conditional cash and land transfer to poor families to relocate to larger plots of farm land. The average treatment effect of the program is estimated using a difference-in-difference matching technique based on propensity score matching; qualitative information complement the analysis to ensure unobservable characteristics do not bias the findings. As expected, the results show a significant effect on landholdings and agricultural production, with land size increasing and maize production increasing by more than 100 kilograms relative to the control. However, the impacts on food security and asset holdings were mixed. Households that relocated great distances had systematically lower impacts than those households that stayed within their district of origin because they had to adapt to unfamiliar agro-ecological, cultural, and market environments. Impacts also varied across gender of the household head; female-headed beneficiary households increased their productive and consumption assets significantly, while male-headed households increased their asset holdings less so.
Agricultural production --- Arable land --- Capital formation --- Comparative analysis --- Cultivable land --- Debt Markets --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- ECONOMIC WELFARE --- Economics --- Effective use --- Environmental --- Environmental Economics and Policies --- Environments --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial resources --- Labor inputs --- Land productivity --- Market prices --- Policy makers --- Poverty Reduction --- Property Rights --- Resource management --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Weather patterns
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Since the 1995 inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO), developing countries have become some of the most frequent users of the WTO-sanctioned antidumping trade policy instrument. This paper exploits newly available data to examine the pattern of actual industrial use of antidumping in nine of the major "new user" developing countries - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Turkey and Venezuela. For these countries we are able to match data from two newly available sources: data on production in 28 different 3-digit ISIC industries from the Trade, Production and Protection Database to data on antidumping investigations, outcomes and imports at the 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) product level from the Global Antidumping Database. Our econometric analysis is to estimate a two-stage model of the industry-level decision to pursue an antidumping investigation and the national government's decision of whether and how much antidumping import protection to provide. First, we find evidence consistent with the theory of endogenous trade policy: larger industries that face substantial import competition are more likely to pursue an antidumping investigation, and larger and more concentrated industries receive greater antidumping protection from imports. Second, we find that industries that use antidumping are more likely to face the changing economic conditions specified by the technical evidentiary criteria of the WTO Antidumping Agreement: industries that face rapidly falling import prices are more likely to pursue an investigation, and industries that are more susceptible to cyclical dumping due to greater capital investment expenditures and that face rapidly increasing competition from imports receive greater antidumping protection.
Access --- Antidumping --- Antidumping Database --- Antidumping Measures --- Antidumping Policy --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Domestic Industries --- Economic Theory and Research --- Economic Welfare --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Globalization and Financial Integration --- Import Competition --- Import Penetration --- Import Prices --- Import Protection --- Import Restrictions --- Industrial Management --- Industry --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Price Discrimination --- Public Sector Development --- Tariffs --- Trade Law --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policies --- Trade Policy --- Water and Industry --- Water Resources --- World Trade --- World Trade Organization
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Since the 1995 inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO), developing countries have become some of the most frequent users of the WTO-sanctioned antidumping trade policy instrument. This paper exploits newly available data to examine the pattern of actual industrial use of antidumping in nine of the major "new user" developing countries - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Turkey and Venezuela. For these countries we are able to match data from two newly available sources: data on production in 28 different 3-digit ISIC industries from the Trade, Production and Protection Database to data on antidumping investigations, outcomes and imports at the 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) product level from the Global Antidumping Database. Our econometric analysis is to estimate a two-stage model of the industry-level decision to pursue an antidumping investigation and the national government's decision of whether and how much antidumping import protection to provide. First, we find evidence consistent with the theory of endogenous trade policy: larger industries that face substantial import competition are more likely to pursue an antidumping investigation, and larger and more concentrated industries receive greater antidumping protection from imports. Second, we find that industries that use antidumping are more likely to face the changing economic conditions specified by the technical evidentiary criteria of the WTO Antidumping Agreement: industries that face rapidly falling import prices are more likely to pursue an investigation, and industries that are more susceptible to cyclical dumping due to greater capital investment expenditures and that face rapidly increasing competition from imports receive greater antidumping protection.
Access --- Antidumping --- Antidumping Database --- Antidumping Measures --- Antidumping Policy --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Domestic Industries --- Economic Theory and Research --- Economic Welfare --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Globalization and Financial Integration --- Import Competition --- Import Penetration --- Import Prices --- Import Protection --- Import Restrictions --- Industrial Management --- Industry --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Price Discrimination --- Public Sector Development --- Tariffs --- Trade Law --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policies --- Trade Policy --- Water and Industry --- Water Resources --- World Trade --- World Trade Organization
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Many trade negotiations involve large cuts in high tariffs, with flexibilities allowing much smaller cuts for an agreed number of politically-sensitive products. The effects of these flexibilities on market access opportunities are difficult to predict, creating particular problems for developing countries in assessing whether to support a proposed agreement. Some widely-used ad hoc approaches to identifying likely sensitive products - such as the highest-bound-tariff rule - suggest that the impacts of a limited number of such exceptions on average tariffs and on market access are likely to be minor. This paper uses a rigorous specification based on the apparent objectives of policy makers in setting the pre-negotiation tariff. Applying this approach with detailed data allows the authors to assess the implications of sensitive-product provisions for average agricultural tariffs, economic welfare, and market access under the Doha negotiations. The authors conclude that highest-tariff rules are likely to seriously underestimate the impacts on average tariffs, and that treating even 2 percent of tariff lines as sensitive is likely to have a sharply adverse impact on economic welfare. The impacts on market access are also adverse, but much smaller, perhaps reflecting the mercantilist focus of the negotiating process.
Agricultural negotiations --- Agricultural products --- Average tariffs --- Debt Markets --- Economic welfare --- Ex ante assessment --- Export subsidies --- Factor endowments --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- High tariffs --- International Economics and Trade --- International prices --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market access --- Market access opportunities --- Markets and Market Access --- Tariff --- Tariff rates --- Tariff reduction --- Tariff revenues --- Trade --- Trade agreements --- Trade negotiations --- Trade Policy --- Value of imports --- World prices
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