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Econometric models for the developing economies: a case study of Greece
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ISBN: 0566002108 9780566002106 Year: 1978 Publisher: Westmead Saxon House

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Developments of control theory for economic analysis
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ISBN: 9024733456 9401080631 9400934955 9789024733453 Year: 1987 Volume: v. 7 Publisher: Dordrecht

GEM : a new international macroeconomic model
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ISBN: 1589063759 9781589063754 Year: 2004 Volume: 239 Publisher: Washington, DC International Monetary Fund


Book
International Policy Coordination and Simple Monetary Policy Rules
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ISBN: 1451864248 1462358888 1451985002 9786613828309 1452792526 1283515857 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies the optimal design of monetary policy in an optimizing two-country sticky price model. We suppose that the production sequence of final consumption goods stretches across both countries and is associated with vertical trade. Prices of final consumption goods are sticky in the consumer's currency. Pursuing an inward-looking policy, as suggested in recent work, is not optimal in this set-up. We also ask which simple, i.e. non-optimal, targeting rule best supports the welfare maximizing policy. The results hinge critically on the degree of price flexibility and the relative importance of cost-push and productivity shocks. In many cases, a strict targeting of price indices like producer or consumer price indices is dominated by rules that allow for some fluctuations in prices such as nominal income or monetary targeting.


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Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy
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ISBN: 1451863322 1462302394 1451908687 9786613827876 1452720894 1283515423 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We explore the underlying determinants of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and tax and social security reform using the Global Fiscal Model (GFM). We show that the planning horizon of consumers, access to financial markets, and the elasticity of labor supply, as well as the characteristics of utility and production functions, and the degree of competition are all critical for determining the impact of fiscal policy. Four topical fiscal policy issues, for a representative large and small economy, are examined: the effects of changes in government debt; higher government spending; tax reform; and privatization of retirement savings.


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Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease : Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?
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ISBN: 1451864051 1462343759 1452702314 9786613827166 1451989350 1283514710 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies how macroeconomic policies can help offset two unintended and undesirable features of foreign aid: its volatility and Dutch disease. We present evidence that aid volatility augments trade balance volatility and that foreign aid, with the important exception of years of adverse shocks, depresses exports. We also find that these effects can be mitigated through changes in net domestic assets of the central bank-a variable that reflects both monetary and fiscal policy. To characterize the optimal policy, we develop a general equilibrium model in which the capital account is closed and aid influences productivity growth through positive (public expenditure) and negative (Dutch disease) externalities. In this setting, macroeconomic policies permanently affect real variables and can improve welfare if donors do not distribute foreign aid optimally over time.


Book
Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty : Is Africa Different?
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ISBN: 1462366996 1452775400 128210862X 1451905734 9786613801975 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.


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Financial Dollarization Equilibria : A Framework for Policy Analysis
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ISBN: 1462311482 1452765294 1283517329 1451907419 9786613829771 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Rapidly rising dollarization and numerous related financial crises in recent years have heightened the need for policy action. This paper contributes to the policy debate by presenting a common analytic framework that examines the roots of de facto financial dollarization under different economic environments and analyzes its interplay with monetary and prudential policies. In addition to providing a systematic analysis of the existence, stability, and multiplicity of dollarization equilibria, the paper makes a few novel contributions. In particular, it stresses the key role played by monetary policy endogeneity and identifies the underlying determinants of the peso premium that are responsible for inducing a preference for the dollar in financial transactions.


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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment : A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462308465 1452764298 1282561073 1451907192 9786613822437 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) in a sample of 64 developing countries. We study the dynamic of the RER with its economic fundamentals: productivity, the terms of trade, openness, and government spending. We derive a number of common factors that explain the dynamic of the RER in our sample. We find that while some fundamentals such as productivity, terms of trade, and openness are strongly related to these common factors in low-income countries, no such link is found for the middle-income countries. We also derive the misalignment indices, which seem to reproduce recent episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation in a number of countries.

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