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Fully grown : why a stagnant economy is a sign of success
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ISBN: 022666614X 9780226666006 022666600X Year: 2020 Publisher: Chicago, Illinois ; London : The University of Chicago Press,

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"Vollrath challenges our long-held assumption that growth is the best indicator of an economy’s health. Most economists would agree that a thriving economy is synonymous with GDP growth. The more we produce and consume, the higher our living standard and the more resources available to the public. This means that our current era, in which growth has slowed substantially from its postwar highs, has raised alarm bells. But should it? Is growth actually the best way to measure economic success—and does our slowdown indicate economic problems? The counterintuitive answer Dietrich Vollrath offers is: No. Looking at the same facts as other economists, he offers a radically different interpretation. Rather than a sign of economic failure, he argues, our current slowdown is, in fact, a sign of our widespread economic success. Our powerful economy has already supplied so much of the necessary stuff of modern life, brought us so much comfort, security, and luxury, that we have turned to new forms of production and consumption that increase our well-being but do not contribute to growth in GDP. In Fully Grown, Vollrath offers a powerful case to support that argument. He explores a number of important trends in the US economy: including a decrease in the number of workers relative to the population, a shift from a goods-driven economy to a services-driven one, and a decline in geographic mobility. In each case, he shows how their economic effects could be read as a sign of success, even though they each act as a brake of GDP growth. He also reveals what growth measurement can and cannot tell us—which factors are rightly correlated with economic success, which tell us nothing about significant changes in the economy, and which fall into a conspicuously gray area. Sure to be controversial, Fully Grown will reset the terms of economic debate and help us think anew about what a successful economy looks like." -- Publisher's description.


Book
Dynamic Systems, Economic Growth, and the Environment
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9783642021329 9783642021312 364202131X Year: 2010 Volume: 12 Publisher: Berlin, Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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The book focuses on the sustainability of economic growth in a changing environment, under the effects of global warming, dwindling energy resources, and technological change. It also provides explanations for significant fluctuations in countries' growth rates. The results are derived from historical evidence on economic growth in relation to environmental policy, technological change, development of transport infrastructure, population issues, and environmental mortality. The rigorous analysis of theoretical and applied aspects reveals important policy implications for optimal investment, optimal timing of abatement activities, and for an optimal balancing of economic growth with environmental concerns.


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Nonlinear dynamics in equilibrium models : chaos, cycles and indeterminacy
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ISBN: 3642223966 3642446221 9786613573353 3642223974 1280395435 Year: 2012 Publisher: Berlin : Springer,

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Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals. Chapter “Introduction” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Income Distribution in Macroeconomic Models
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ISBN: 0691164592 0691121710 1400865093 9781400865093 9780691121710 Year: 2014 Publisher: Princeton, NJ

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This book looks at the distribution of income and wealth and the effects that this has on the macroeconomy, and vice versa. Is a more equal distribution of income beneficial or harmful for macroeconomic growth, and how does the distribution of wealth evolve in a market economy? Taking stock of results and methods developed in the context of the 1990's revival of growth theory, the authors focus on capital accumulation and long-run growth. They show how rigorous, optimization-based technical tools can be applied, beyond the representative-agent framework of analysis, to account for realistic market imperfections and for political-economic interactions. The treatment is thorough, yet accessible to students and nonspecialist economists, and it offers specialist readers a wide-ranging and innovative treatment of an increasingly important research field. The book follows a single analytical thread through a series of different growth models, allowing readers to appreciate their structure and crucial assumptions. This is particularly useful at a time when the literature on income distribution and growth has developed quickly and in several different directions, becoming difficult to overview.


Book
Why Do Some Countries Manage to Extract Growth from Foreign Aid?
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ISBN: 1462369014 1451985355 128204429X 1451906080 9786613797438 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Aid is primarily given to governments whereas the engine of sustained growth is the private sector. It is therefore illusory to investigate the impact of aid on growth without considering the impact of government interventions on the private sector. The model shows how these interventions improve capacity utilization and growth. However, distortionary interventions can also cause capacity underutilization and an increase in the informal economy, that is, the very market failures the interventions initially sought to address. Countries that fall into this trap are characterized by insufficient credibility in promoting the private sector, which translates into aid dependence and slower growth over time. The empirical evidence is supportive. This paper finds that aggregate aid has a positive impact on growth (even without diminishing returns) but the impact is substantially smaller for low-income countries.


Book
Public Debt and Growth
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462310338 1455258628 1282846469 9786612846465 1455201855 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.


Book
Growth, shortage and efficiency : a macrodynamic model of the socialist economy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0631127879 0631131019 9780631127871 9780631131014 Year: 1982 Publisher: Oxford Blackwell


Book
Does Economic Diversification Lead to Financial Development? Evidence From topography
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451862954 1462369995 1451908318 9786613829306 145276932X 1283516853 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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An influential theoretical literature has observed that economic diversification can reduce risk and increase financial development. But causality operates in both directions, as a well functioning financial system can enable a society to invest in more productive but risky projects, thereby determining the degree of economic diversification. Thus, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the impact of economic diversification on financial development are likely to be biased. Motivated by the economic geography literature, this paper uses instruments derived from topographical characteristics to estimate the impact of economic diversification on the development of finance. The fourth estimates suggest a large and robust role for diversification in shaping financial development. And these results imply that, by impeding financial sector development, the concentration of economic activity common in developing countries can adversely affect financial and economic development.


Book
Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability : Putting together the Pieces
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1475511655 1475504071 1475552335 1475577257 Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.


Book
Mind the Gap—Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451863632 1462342744 1451908970 9786613827913 145279555X 1283515466 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines how growth has varied across India's states. It finds that (i) the income gap between rich and poor states has widened; (ii) rich and faster-growing states have been more effective in reducing poverty; (iii) poor and slower-growing states have had little success in generating private sector jobs; (iv) labor and capital flows do little to close income gaps; and (v) the volatility in economic growth is greatest in poor states. Differences in states' policies affect the cross-state pattern of growth. Greater private sector investment, smaller governments, and better institutions are found to have a positive impact on growth.

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