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The paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption, investment, and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two-sector general equilibrium model. A permanent flow of aid finances mainly consumption, a result consistent with the historical failure of aid inflows to translate into sustained growth. Shocks to aid are reflected mainly in investment fluctuations, as a result of consumption smoothing. Aid shocks result in substantial welfare losses, suggesting that aid variability should be taken into account in designing aid architecture. These results are consistent with the evidence from cross-country regressions of manufactured exports.
Consumption (Economics) -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labour --- income economics --- Consumption --- Exports --- Productivity --- Real exchange rates --- Labor --- Economics --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- United States
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It is common for IMF-supported adjustment programs with low-income member countries (LICs) to project that they will facilitate FDI inflows. The main objective of this paper is to empirically examine this hypothesis. Using an unbalanced panel dataset for 73 low-income countries over the period 1980–2012, and two different econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, the empirical results robustly show that participating in IMF-supported program is associated with a significant increase in FDI inflows.
Capital movements -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- International monetary fund. --- Investments, Foreign -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Estimation --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Finance --- Foreign direct investment --- Balance of payments --- Economic sectors --- Investments, Foreign --- United States
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This paper presents a new model based on the loan-pushing model by Basu (1991) to show how a domestic debt crisis can occur in a low-income country following donor herding. The model focuses on the rational herding behavior of donors due to payoff and information externalities. Although there are many theoretical models on herding behavior, these models have not formally considered the relationship between donor herding and domestic debt crisis in a low-income country. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap. The paper shows that due to donor herding behavior a domestic debt crisis can occur once the actual debt level is above the desirable one.
Debts, External -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, External --- Economic assistance --- Econometric models. --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Industries: Financial Services --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Domestic debt --- Loans --- Financial crises --- Debt default --- Real interest rates --- Debts, Public --- Interest rates
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This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models. --- Economic assistance. --- International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Social Services and Welfare --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Foreign Aid --- Social welfare & social services --- International economics --- Finance --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Macroeconomics --- Poverty & precarity --- Balance of payments need --- Debt relief --- Poverty reduction --- Poverty reduction strategy --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- Asset and liability management --- Poverty --- Foreign direct investment --- Debts, External --- Investments, Foreign --- Econometric models --- Prices --- Economic assistance --- Mozambique, Republic of --- Econometric models.
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