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China's rapid overall growth since 1978 masks significant differences in relative economic performance across its provinces. This paper finds that, while per capita income of poor provinces are catching up with those in the rich, the relative income distribution appears to be stratifying into a bimodal distribution--the costal provinces grativating toward one mode, and the remaining provinces toward the other--with economic structure and policies playing important roles in the growth dynamics.
Macroeconomics --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Income --- China, People's Republic of
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We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optimistic” conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin’s results.
Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Economics: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Education: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Health: General --- Education --- Economics of specific sectors --- Bayesian inference --- Health economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Informal economy --- Bayesian models --- Health --- Exchange rates --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models
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Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
Taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Databases --- Economic Methodology --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Survey Methods --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Accounting and Auditing: General --- Accounting and Auditing: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Data capture & analysis --- National accounts --- Value-added tax --- Personal income --- Income and capital gains taxes --- Data collection --- Taxes --- Economic and financial statistics --- National income --- Spendings tax --- Income --- Income tax --- Economic statistics --- Uganda
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This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.
Small business --- Businesses, Small --- Medium-sized business --- Micro-businesses --- Microbusinesses --- Microenterprises --- Small and medium-sized business --- Small and medium-sized enterprises --- Small businesses --- SMEs (Small business) --- Business --- Business enterprises --- Industries --- Finance. --- Size --- Corporate Finance --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Finance --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Financial inclusion --- Small and medium enterprises --- Labor productivity --- Productivity --- Financial markets --- Economic sectors --- Production --- Financial services industry --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Armenia, Republic of
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