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Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
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Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
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Amid controversies surrounding aid effectiveness, an increasing number of empirical studies find support for the idea that aid can spur growth and that the aid-growth relationship is nonlinear. Lensink and White propose a model to illustrate the possible existence of what has been labeled an "aid Laffer curve." This short paper highlights the model's weaknesses and suggests that the model does not fulfill the purpose of illustrating the possible existence of negative returns to aid.
Economic assistance --- Poverty --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Aid --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Technology --- general issues
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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.
Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Pandemics --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General. --- Measurement of Economic Growth. --- Aggregate Productivity. --- Cross-Country Output Convergence. --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Economic aspects.
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This paper examines the variation in life cycle growth across the universe of Mexican firms. We establish two stylized facts to motivate our analysis: first, we show that firm size matters for development by illustrating a close correlation with state-level per capita incomes. Second, we show that few firms grow as much as their U.S. peers while the majority stagnates at less than twice their initial size. To gain insights into the distinguishing characteristics of the two groups, we then econometrically decompose life cycle growth across firms. We find that firms that have financial access and multiple establishments and that are formal, part of diversified industries and located in population centers can grow at sizeable rates.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing --- Labor --- Economic sectors --- Labor economics --- Mexico
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This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.
Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Estimation --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exports --- Debt burden --- Fiscal stance --- Debt service --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, External --- Econometric models --- Yemen, Republic of
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With official development assistance (ODA) set to rise as countries strive to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), aid effectiveness remains an important area of development policy. An increasing number of studies support the notion that ODA can contribute to growth in a nonlinear relationship. In this paper, we investigate a new hypothesis regarding this relationship: that deeper financial markets in aid-recipient countries facilitate the management of aid flows, thereby enhancing aid effectiveness. An empirical analysis, using a panel data set, finds robust support for the hypothesis.
Economic assistance --- Poverty --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign Aid --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economywide Country Studies: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Foreign aid --- Aid flows --- Financial sector development --- Real exchange rates --- Development assistance --- Financial markets --- International relief --- Financial services industry --- Uganda
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Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.
Inflation --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Agribusiness --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Agricultural Markets and Marketing --- Cooperatives --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Disinflation --- Human capital --- Agroindustries --- Public expenditure review --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Agricultural industries --- Expenditures, Public --- United States
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This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Trade: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- Disinflation --- Exports --- Export performance --- Structural reforms --- Prices --- International trade --- Macrostructural analysis --- Russian Federation
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Globalization—the intensification of international trade and finance linkages underpinned by economic liberalization and technological change—presents both challenges and opportunities to Arab countries. After reviewing this region’s disappointing performance in integration and growth, this paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the two and concludes that integration is necessary if high growth rates are to be attained and the region is not to become marginalized. It then identifies the main obstacles to the integration of Arab countries into the world economy and reviews recent progress in overcoming them. On this basis, the paper derives some policy prescriptions.
Exports and Imports --- Globalization --- Economic Integration --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Globalization: General --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Finance --- Foreign direct investment --- Exports --- Trade liberalization --- Imports --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Commercial policy --- Egypt, Arab Republic of
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