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Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics

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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Pandemics --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General. --- Measurement of Economic Growth. --- Aggregate Productivity. --- Cross-Country Output Convergence. --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Economic aspects.

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This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Estimation --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exports --- Debt burden --- Fiscal stance --- Debt service --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, External --- Econometric models --- Yemen, Republic of

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Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation’s effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.

Inflation --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Agribusiness --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Agricultural Markets and Marketing --- Cooperatives --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Disinflation --- Human capital --- Agroindustries --- Public expenditure review --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Agricultural industries --- Expenditures, Public --- United States

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Globalization—the intensification of international trade and finance linkages underpinned by economic liberalization and technological change—presents both challenges and opportunities to Arab countries. After reviewing this region’s disappointing performance in integration and growth, this paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the two and concludes that integration is necessary if high growth rates are to be attained and the region is not to become marginalized. It then identifies the main obstacles to the integration of Arab countries into the world economy and reviews recent progress in overcoming them. On this basis, the paper derives some policy prescriptions.

Exports and Imports --- Globalization --- Economic Integration --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Globalization: General --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Finance --- Foreign direct investment --- Exports --- Trade liberalization --- Imports --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Commercial policy --- Egypt, Arab Republic of