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The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality - the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities.
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Uganda's growth in gross domestic product of the 2000s was accompanied by high growth rates of labor productivity across industries producing tradable goods and services. This came about primarily as a result of investment in equipment and other fixed assets, but also entailed substantial gains in total factor productivity Based on data from two waves of the Uganda Business Indicators survey this paper estimates that economy wide aggregate labor productivity and aggregate TFP grew at average annual rates of 13 t and 3 percent, respectively between survey years 2002 and 2009. Part of the growth in productivity on each measure reflected gains from technical progress made at the establishment level and within narrowly defined industries. But it was also in part the outcome of reallocation of labor and capital within as well as across industries. In particular, the paper estimates that about one-fifth of the aggregate growth in labor productivity between the two years reflected the shifting of labor toward industries and sectors where it was more productive on average and at the margin. The rest of the observed growth in labor productivity reflected gains made within narrowly defined industries. But almost in every case 55 to 90 percent of the observed "within industry" growth in labor productivity represented allocative efficiency gains from the correction of intra-industry inter-firm misallocation of labor. The balance of the observed within-industry growth in labor productivity represented establishment-level gains in technical efficiency.
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Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
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Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
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Amid controversies surrounding aid effectiveness, an increasing number of empirical studies find support for the idea that aid can spur growth and that the aid-growth relationship is nonlinear. Lensink and White propose a model to illustrate the possible existence of what has been labeled an "aid Laffer curve." This short paper highlights the model's weaknesses and suggests that the model does not fulfill the purpose of illustrating the possible existence of negative returns to aid.
Economic assistance --- Poverty --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Foreign Aid --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Technology --- general issues
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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.
Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Pandemics --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General. --- Measurement of Economic Growth. --- Aggregate Productivity. --- Cross-Country Output Convergence. --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Economic aspects.
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This paper examines the variation in life cycle growth across the universe of Mexican firms. We establish two stylized facts to motivate our analysis: first, we show that firm size matters for development by illustrating a close correlation with state-level per capita incomes. Second, we show that few firms grow as much as their U.S. peers while the majority stagnates at less than twice their initial size. To gain insights into the distinguishing characteristics of the two groups, we then econometrically decompose life cycle growth across firms. We find that firms that have financial access and multiple establishments and that are formal, part of diversified industries and located in population centers can grow at sizeable rates.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing --- Labor --- Economic sectors --- Labor economics --- Mexico
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This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using a large panel data set of 93 developing countries over 1969–98. Results are generally robust across different econometric methodologies, regression specifications, and different debt indicators. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio would reduce annual per capita growth by between half and a full percentage point. The differential in per capita growth between countries with external indebtedness (in net present value) below 100 percent of exports and above 300 percent of exports seems to be in excess of 2 percent per annum. For countries that are to benefit from debt reduction under the current HIPC initiative, per capita growth might increase by 1 percentage point, unless constrained by other macroeconomic and structural economic distortions. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP. The marginal impact of debt starts being negative at about half of these values. High debt appears to reduce growth mainly by lowering the efficiency of investment rather than its volume.
Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Development: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Estimation --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exports --- Debt burden --- Fiscal stance --- Debt service --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, External --- Econometric models --- Yemen, Republic of
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China's rapid overall growth since 1978 masks significant differences in relative economic performance across its provinces. This paper finds that, while per capita income of poor provinces are catching up with those in the rich, the relative income distribution appears to be stratifying into a bimodal distribution--the costal provinces grativating toward one mode, and the remaining provinces toward the other--with economic structure and policies playing important roles in the growth dynamics.
Macroeconomics --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models --- Spatial Models --- Treatment Effect Models --- Technological Change: Government Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: Other --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Income --- China, People's Republic of
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With official development assistance (ODA) set to rise as countries strive to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), aid effectiveness remains an important area of development policy. An increasing number of studies support the notion that ODA can contribute to growth in a nonlinear relationship. In this paper, we investigate a new hypothesis regarding this relationship: that deeper financial markets in aid-recipient countries facilitate the management of aid flows, thereby enhancing aid effectiveness. An empirical analysis, using a panel data set, finds robust support for the hypothesis.
Economic assistance --- Poverty --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign Aid --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economywide Country Studies: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Foreign aid --- Aid flows --- Financial sector development --- Real exchange rates --- Development assistance --- Financial markets --- International relief --- Financial services industry --- Uganda
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