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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,
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Despite the scale of the global financial crisis, to date it has not resulted in a sovereign debt crisis among emerging market countries. Two significant factors in this outcome are the improved macroeconomic management and public debt management in these countries over the past decade. This paper reviews the improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals and the composition of public debt portfolios in emerging market countries prior to the crisis and concludes that the policies and strategies pursued by governments provided them with a buffer when the crisis hit. Nevertheless, with the international capital markets effectively closed for over three months and domestic borrowing in many cases impacted by extreme risk aversion, government debt managers were required to adapt their strategies to rapidly changing circumstances. The paper reviews the impact of the crisis and the responses of debt managers to the drying up of international capital, decreased liquidity in markets, and sharply increased term premia. Three categories of response are identified: (i) funding from other sources to reduce pressure on market borrowing; (ii) adapting funding programs to changes in demand in the different types of securities; and (iii) implementing liability management operations to support the market. Most governments were willing to accept temporarily greater risk in their portfolios, often reversing long established strategies, at a time when financial markets were under stress. These actions contributed to the measures taken by governments to stabilize markets and prevent economies from stalling. Looking to the future, government debt managers will need to consider how they can increase the resilience of public debt portfolios for the uncertain times that lie ahead.
Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital markets development --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt crisis --- Debt Markets --- Domestic borrowing --- Emerging market --- Emerging market countries --- Emerging market economies --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Global capital --- Global capital markets --- Government debt --- International capital --- International capital markets --- International Economics and Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic management --- Market borrowing --- Portfolios --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Public debt management --- Risk aversion --- Sovereign debt
Book
Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,
Abstract | Keywords | Export | Availability | Bookmark
Loading...Choose an application
- Reference Manager
- EndNote
- RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)
The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan.
Access to Finance --- Balance of payments --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Budget --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Domestic borrowing --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial system --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal deficits --- Fiscal policies --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign exchange --- Government revenue --- Government revenues --- International bank --- Living standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Private Sector Development --- Remittances --- Reserves --- Share --- Tax --- Transition country
Book
Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,
Abstract | Keywords | Export | Availability | Bookmark
Loading...Choose an application
- Reference Manager
- EndNote
- RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)
Despite the scale of the global financial crisis, to date it has not resulted in a sovereign debt crisis among emerging market countries. Two significant factors in this outcome are the improved macroeconomic management and public debt management in these countries over the past decade. This paper reviews the improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals and the composition of public debt portfolios in emerging market countries prior to the crisis and concludes that the policies and strategies pursued by governments provided them with a buffer when the crisis hit. Nevertheless, with the international capital markets effectively closed for over three months and domestic borrowing in many cases impacted by extreme risk aversion, government debt managers were required to adapt their strategies to rapidly changing circumstances. The paper reviews the impact of the crisis and the responses of debt managers to the drying up of international capital, decreased liquidity in markets, and sharply increased term premia. Three categories of response are identified: (i) funding from other sources to reduce pressure on market borrowing; (ii) adapting funding programs to changes in demand in the different types of securities; and (iii) implementing liability management operations to support the market. Most governments were willing to accept temporarily greater risk in their portfolios, often reversing long established strategies, at a time when financial markets were under stress. These actions contributed to the measures taken by governments to stabilize markets and prevent economies from stalling. Looking to the future, government debt managers will need to consider how they can increase the resilience of public debt portfolios for the uncertain times that lie ahead.
Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital markets development --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt crisis --- Debt Markets --- Domestic borrowing --- Emerging market --- Emerging market countries --- Emerging market economies --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Global capital --- Global capital markets --- Government debt --- International capital --- International capital markets --- International Economics and Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic management --- Market borrowing --- Portfolios --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Public debt management --- Risk aversion --- Sovereign debt
Book
Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,
Abstract | Keywords | Export | Availability | Bookmark
Loading...Choose an application
- Reference Manager
- EndNote
- RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)
The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan.
Access to Finance --- Balance of payments --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Budget --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Domestic borrowing --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial system --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal deficits --- Fiscal policies --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign exchange --- Government revenue --- Government revenues --- International bank --- Living standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Private Sector Development --- Remittances --- Reserves --- Share --- Tax --- Transition country
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