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Analyzing public debt in low-income developing countries (LIDCs) is like solving a puzzle with many missing pieces. Forty percent of LIDCs have not published any sovereign debt data in the last two years. Public debt data disclosed in different publications show discrepancies of up to 30 percent of GDP across sources, and relative to the records of relevant authorities. Over 15 LIDCs have outstanding collateralized debt but no details of the collateralization are provided in official statistics. Restructuring of bilateral and commercial debt is often handled privately. All these problems have different origins and implications. Yet, they all amount to a lack of transparency. The international community has become acutely aware of the importance of debt transparency after recent cases of "hidden debt" The "Tuna Bond" case in Mozambique highlighted the dangers of inadequate debt transparency. In 2016 two large previously unreported loans totaling 1.15 billion US Dollars -equal to about 9 percent of the country's GDP-were revealed. As a result, donor support was frozen, the economy plunged, and the government was forced to make deep cuts in public spending. The biggest losers were poor Mozambiquans. Nontransparent public debt can quickly alter the lives of millions of ordinary citizens. This report is the first comprehensive assessment of debt transparency in LIDCs. It presents a complete picture of the current challenges and the pending policy agenda for all stakeholders. It draws upon new databases and surveys to take stock of key gaps in debt reporting, borrowing practices and legal frameworks, offering a detailed and timely view on the current state of debt transparency in LIDCs. It also synthesizes recent studies and policy discussions on debt transparency and offers practical policy recommendations required to further improve debt transparency in LIDCs.
Debt Markets --- Domestic Debt --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development
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The Republic of Sudan is the third largest country in Africa, following the July 2011 secession of South Sudan, with an area of 1.8 million square kilometers and a population of 33.4 million, half of which live in urban areas. It is strategically located between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, with direct borders with Central African Republic, Chad, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya, and South Sudan. Sudan is a federal republic, and the vertical structure of government consists of three tiers. The central government is embodied in the office of the President, the Council of Ministers, and the National Assembly and the two main tiers at the sub-national levels are the state tier (with 17 states) and the locality tier. The implications of the country's current political and economic transition on debt management are fundamental. The permanent fiscal shock from lower oil revenues has put heavy pressure on the budget, with fewer resources available for debt repayment and with increased needs for borrowing for deficit financing, including monetization. External resources are limited given the arrears Sudan has with many creditors and associated lack of access to concessional financing, plus traditional global markets are stressed from fiscal problems in many countries. The government has already been very active in domestic markets, and the availability of additional resources from the private sector is a concern. The DeMPA focuses on central government debt management activities and closely-related functions, such as the issuance of loan guarantees, on-lending, cash flow forecasting, and cash balance management. Thus, the DeMPA does not assess the ability to manage the wider public debt portfolio, including implicit contingent liabilities (such as liabilities of the pension system) or the debt of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), if these are not guaranteed by the central government.
Debt Management --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Debt --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development
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This paper documents to what extent firms from developing countries borrow short versus long term, using data on corporate bond and syndicated loan markets. Contrary to claims in the literature based on firm balance sheets, firms from developing countries borrow through bonds and syndicated loans at maturities similar to those obtained by developed country firms. The composition and use of financing matters. Firms from developing countries borrow shorter term in domestic bond markets, but the differences in international issuances (accounting for most of the proceeds) are significantly smaller. Developing country firms borrow longer term in syndicated loan markets, which they partially use for infrastructure projects. However, only large firms from developing countries (similar in size to those from developed ones) issue bonds and syndicated loans. The short-termism in developing countries is partly explained by a lower proportion of firms using these markets, with more firms relying on other shorter-term instruments.
Capital Raising --- Corporate Bonds --- Developing Countries --- Domestic Debt --- Firm Financing --- International Debt --- Issuance Maturity --- Long-Term Debt --- Markets --- Short-Term Debt --- Syndicated Loans
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May 2000 - Because of the trend toward decentralization in more than 70 countries where the World Bank is active, subnational entities - states, regions, provinces, counties, and municipalities, and the local utility companies owned by them - are now responsible for delivering services and investing in infrastructure. And infrastructure investments are growing rapidly to meet increasing urban demand. How should the World Bank Group help? Subnational debt markets can be a powerful force in a country's development. Through delegated monitoring by financial intermediaries and through debt placed directly with investors, sub-national debt markets account for about 5 percent of GDP in Argentina and Brazil. But they remain embryonic in most developing and transition economies. To resolve a potential clash between the increased financing needs of subnational entities and the limited development of domestic subnational debt markets, it is critical to support the orderly, efficient emergence of such debt markets. As a framework for policy reform, the following steps (mirroring typical weaknesses) are prerequisites for developing a country's subnational debt market: Reducing moral hazard; Improving market transparency; Strengthening market governance; Establishing a level playing field; Developing local capacity for accounting, budgeting, and financial management. In countries where the government shows a clear commitment to market development, says Noel, the IBRD should support the framework needed for policy-based operations that establish hard budget constraints. In doing so, the IBRD should concentrate on (1) supporting national and local capacity building in those areas essential for developing a subnational debt market and (2) financing specific subnational projects with strictly nonrecourse loans. At the same time, the World Bank Group should offer a variety of lending and guarantee instruments that encourage private financing for investments by subnational entities - including, for example, equity participation in (or lines of credit or partial credit guarantees to) financial intermediaries specializing in subnational investment finance or in funds for financing local infrastructure. This paper - a product of the Private and Financial Sectors Development Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region - was prepared as background for a manual on policy issues relating to domestic debt markets. Michel Noel may be contacted at mnoel2@worldbank.org.
Agency Problems --- Bond Market Players --- Debt Market --- Debt Markets --- Decentralization --- Domestic Bond --- Domestic Bond Market --- Domestic Debt --- Domestic Debt Markets --- Finance --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Sector Development --- Financial Systems --- Markets Development --- Sub-National Bond --- Sub-National Bond Market --- Sub-National Bond Markets --- Sub-National Debt --- Sub-National Debt Market --- Sub-National Debt Market Development --- Sub-National Debt Markets --- Transition Countries
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This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.
Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Debt Structure --- Domestic Debt --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- International Economics & Trade --- Low-Income Countries, Hipcs --- Private Sector Development
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This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.
Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Debt Structure --- Domestic Debt --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- International Economics & Trade --- Low-Income Countries, Hipcs --- Private Sector Development
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This Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavor to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The MEM consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a special selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects. In this edition, the special topic focuses on Social Safety Nets. Safety nets are playing an increasing role in promoting equity, strengthening resilience, and improving long-term human capital outcomes. There is now robust evidence to demonstrate that social safety nets can be an efficient means to break the cycle of poverty and vulnerability in Malawi. The key messages of this edition of the MEM are about economic recovery and cautious optimism.
Agricultural Productivity --- Business Environment --- Cash Transfers --- Domestic Debt --- Economic Growth --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Food Security --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor
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Improved macroeconomic conditions and changes to the asset-liability structure on Turkish balance sheets since the 2001 crisis have improved Turkey's overall sovereign risk profile. Nonetheless, the country remains subject to bouts of volatility, as evidenced most recently in the May/June 2006 market turbulence. This paper examines these changes in Turkey's risk profile using the Contingent Claims Approach (CCA), to quantify the evolution of Turkey's sovereign risk, relate risk indicators to market prices of risk, and conduct scenario analyses to assess the effects of potential market volatility and policy adjustments on key risk indicators.
Accounting --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Domestic debt --- Financial statements --- External debt --- Public debt --- Debts, Public --- Finance, Public --- Debts, External --- Turkey --- Country risk --- Monetary policy --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy
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This paper explores how interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico are linked to expectations of exchange rate changes and to perceptions about the default risks contained in Mexico’s external debt. It is shown that the interest rate differentials between peso- and U.S. dollar-denominated domestic assets reflected some concerns about the exchange rate policy during the period under study. In addition, the evidence suggests that the interest rate on a U.S. dollar-denominated Mexican domestic asset is linked (i.e., cointegrated) to the yield implicit in the secondary market price for external debt issued by Mexico.
Banks and Banking --- Currency --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Domestic debt --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Exchange rates --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Finance --- Financial services --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Interest rate parity --- Interest rates --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- Mexico
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This paper traces the causes of the rapid growth of India’s public debt, with special reference to internal debt. It then demonstrates that the growth of debt would become unsustainable by the end of the 1990s if the present trends continue. It develops a methodology to iterate the path of growth of debt to discover the sustainable level of the primary deficit. Finally, it suggests concrete measures to bring down the primary deficit.
Debt Management --- Debt service --- Debt --- Debts, Public --- Domestic debt --- Economic sectors --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Government business enterprises --- Interest payments --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Nationalization --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Public debt --- Public enterprises --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public ownership --- Sovereign Debt --- India
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