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Is there a "middle income trap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels may be different. If countries struggle to transition from growth strategies that are effective at low income levels to growth strategies that are effective at high income levels, they may stagnate at some middle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a "middle income trap." This paper does not find evidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middle income level. However, it does find evidence that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels differ. These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-income countries may need to change growth strategies to transition smoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can be done smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middle income trap.
Determinants Of Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Income --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Middle Income Trap --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development
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Ghana has experienced a decade of solid and exceptionally high growth. Between 2005 and 2015, income nearly doubled. This paper analyzes the factors driving this impressive growth performance, using tools such as structural change decompositions and growth regressions. For the comparative perspective, the paper compares Ghana with its structural and aspirational peers. The paper finds that the contribution of structural change to growth has been limited and attributes this to labor that was freed up in agriculture not being absorbed by high-productivity sectors. Looking at factors that drove growth since 2000, financial development and infrastructure had the most important impacts. A benchmark analysis suggests that those areas should remain the policy focus over the longer term, but that near-term priority should be given to stabilization policies.
Agriculture --- Business cycles and stabilization policies --- Common carriers industry --- Construction industry --- Determinants of growth --- Economic growth --- Food and beverage industry --- Food security --- General manufacturing --- Inflation --- International economics and trade --- International trade and trade rules --- Labor markets --- Plastics and rubber industry --- Pulp and paper industry --- Social protections and labor --- Structural change --- Textiles apparel and leather industry
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