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este texto soporta los conceptos generales de la estadística descriptiva, muestreo, ordenación de datos, representación gráfica, medidas de tendencia central, de posición, de dispersión y de forma. Su propósito es servir de guía para la comprensión de los elementos básicos que permiten analizar un conjunto de datos, aprendizaje que será útil para los estudiantes y profesionales de áreas que necesitan de la estadística en su quehacer.

Statistics --- Probabilities --- Estadísticas --- Probabilidades --- Data processing. --- Proceso de datos. --- Data analysis --- Descriptive statistics

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One important concern of governments in developing countries is how to phase out large safety net programs. The authors evaluate the short-run effects of one possible exit strategy-programs that promote self-employment-in Argentina. They provide evidence that a small fraction of beneficiaries were attracted by this program. Overall, potential participants to self-employment are more likely to be female household heads and more educated beneficiaries relative to the average Jefes beneficiaries. Using nonexperimental methods, the authors show that participation in the program does affect the labor supply of participants, by reducing the probability of having an outside job, especially for males, and increasing the total number of hours worked. But the intervention fails to produce on average income gains to participating individuals and households in the short run. The fact that a small subset of former welfare beneficiaries are attracted to the program, coupled with the fact that only a subset of participants (younger and more educated beneficiaries, and with previous self-employment experience) benefited from participation has important implications for this intervention to represent a viable exit strategy from welfare.

Access to Finance --- Beneficiaries --- Debt Markets --- Descriptive statistics --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Flexibility --- Impact evaluation --- Income --- Intervention --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Nonexperimental methods --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Program implementation --- Programs --- Social Protections and Labor --- Targeting

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The small-area estimation technique developed for producing poverty maps has been applied in a large number of developing countries. Opportunities to formally test the validity of this approach remain rare due to lack of appropriately detailed data. This paper compares a set of predicted welfare estimates based on this methodology against their true values, in a setting where these true values are known. A recent study draws on Monte Carlo evidence to warn that the small-area estimation methodology could significantly over-state the precision of local-level estimates of poverty, if underlying assumptions of spatial homogeneity do not hold. Despite these concerns, the findings in this paper for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, indicate that the small-area estimation approach is able to produce estimates of welfare that line up quite closely to their true values. Although the setting considered here would seem, a priori, unlikely to meet the homogeneity conditions that have been argued to be essential for the method, confidence intervals for the poverty estimates also appear to be appropriate. However, this latter conclusion holds only after carefully controlling for community-level factors that are correlated with household level welfare.

Confidence intervals --- Descriptive statistics --- Education --- Enumeration --- Geographical Information Systems --- Precision --- Predictions --- Reliability --- Sample design --- Sample surveys --- Science and Technology Development --- Science Education --- Scientific Research and Science Parks --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping --- Standard errors --- Statistical and Mathematical Sciences --- Validity

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This paper analyzes the drivers and consequences of sudden stops of capital flows. It focuses on the impact of external vulnerability on the depth and length of sudden stop crises. The authors analyze 43 developing and developed countries between 1993 and 2006. They find evidence that external vulnerability not only significantly impacts the probability of a sudden stop crisis, but also prolongs the time it takes for growth to revert to its long-term trend once a sudden stop occurs. Interestingly, external vulnerability does not significantly impact the size of the instantaneous output effect in case of a sudden stop but prompts a cumulative output effect through significantly diminishing the speed of adjustment of output to its trend. This finding implies that countries financing a large part of their absorption externally do not suffer more ferocious output losses in a sudden stop crisis, but take longer to adapt afterward and are hence expected to suffer more protracted crises periods. Compared with previous literature, this paper makes three contributions: (i) it extends the country and time coverage relative to datasets that have previously been used to analyze related topics; (ii) it specifically accounts for time-series autocorrelation; and (iii) it provides an analysis of the adjustment path of economic growth after a sudden stop.

Adjustment dynamics --- Adjustment path --- Annual growth --- Capital flows --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Descriptive statistics --- Economic Growth --- Economic growth --- Economic policy --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Exchange rate fluctuations --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Growth performance --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Inequality --- International financial markets --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Real exchange rate --- Robustness checks --- Speed of adjustment --- Time horizon --- Trade shocks