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Book
Determinants of democratization : explaining regime change in the world, 1972-2006
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ISBN: 9780521199063 9780521139687 0521139686 0521199069 9780511762727 9780511916861 0511916868 9780511918827 0511918828 9780511915055 0511915055 0511762720 0511913265 9780511913266 1107215277 0511851340 1282908022 9786612908026 0511917848 Year: 2010 Publisher: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press,

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Abstract

What are the determinants of democratization? Do the factors that move countries toward democracy also help them refrain from backsliding toward autocracy? This book attempts to answer these questions through a combination of a statistical analysis of social, economic, and international determinants of regime change in 165 countries around the world in 1972-2006, and case study work on nine episodes of democratization occurring in Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay. The findings suggest that democracy is promoted by long-term structural forces such as economic prosperity, but also by peaceful popular uprisings and the institutional setup of authoritarian regimes. In the short-run, however, elite actors may play a key role, particularly through the importance of intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues that these results have important repercussions both for current theories of democratization and for the international community's effort in developing policies for democracy promotion.

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