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Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.


Dissertation
Demand forecasting under uncertainty: a holistic approach to drivers and barriers for successful forecasting projects.
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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This research thesis aims at analyzing the key elements that enable successful &#13;forecasting projects in a company which operates within an interorganizational framework. &#13;More precisely, it is about identifying essential factors which influence the effectiveness and &#13;efficiency of the forecasting management process in a positive or negative way. The unexpected &#13;global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has shaken supply chains and highlights &#13;the need to address demand forecasting under uncertainty. Thus, to examine factors that are &#13;fundamental to accurate forecasting and those that drive forecasting project deliverables. &#13;Among others, methodical, technological and organizational factors will be identified in a &#13;literature review. Further a holistic single-case study is conducted to analyze the identified &#13;factors in an organizational environment. The findings will be interlinked to be then able to &#13;derive recommendations for action and to be able to identify further fields of research based on &#13;this thesis.


Dissertation
Data does not always trump intuition - Evaluating performance of statistical forecasting methods in ecommerce
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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As a global end-to-end eCommerce solutions provider, PFSweb deals everyday with thousands of shipping orders to all over Europe. Warehouse management is indeed an essential function of the organization. eCommerce is moreover a new market that is entering everyone’s day-to-day life. Logistics organizations therefore have to serve more and more customers, which leads to distribution issues like out-of-stock items, manpower shortage, and financial impacts, due to a lack of a demand forecast.&#13;In this thesis, we evaluate the performance of several state-of-the-art quantitative methods in demand forecasting, in opposition to methods based on judgment, in order to optimize and formalize forecasting in eCommerce. A systematic framework is therefore considered, which could:&#13;• Document the forecasting process for sharing purposes among PFSweb’s agents. &#13;• Allow the use of several statistical methods.&#13;• Facilitate traceability.&#13;The development of this structure is based on pertinent scientific readings and a rigorous methodology. The scientific literature brought the necessary knowledge and understanding of the extent of the issue: the importance of forecasting in Business, the challenges in eCommerce forecasting, and the state-of-the-art quantitative time-series methods. On the other hand, the methodology gives an overview of PFSweb’s forecasting approach, before the application of a series of steps that compose the proposed framework.&#13;Based on our findings, we show that while these methods work reasonably well, their use in real-life situations characterized by a fluctuating and double-seasonal demand, do not allow for optimal predictions. The performance of these methods particularly deteriorates in the absence of human domain-knowledge, intuition and experience. We thus recommend that these methods should not be applied on their own; rather, they should be used to complement the skills and expertise of human business analyst.


Dissertation
Service level improvement opportunities for the Vendor Managed Inventory at Jindal Films: recommendations for improved demand forecasting, inventory management, and tool performance
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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Jindal Films is a company that produces plastic films for numerous labelling and packaging applications. The company offers VMI contracts to some of its customers, which give them the responsibility to manage product inventory and to replenish stock. &#13;The company faces some problems to manage efficiently the process. These problems are notably the incompatibility of some of the items with the VMI concept, the high inventory level due to poor customer’s forecasts and the out-of-date computer program. &#13;Therefore, the VMI system was reviewed. The first step was to classify and to group the items depending on the level of compatibility with a VMI in order to suggest alternatives for the bad ones or new inventory management policies for the others. &#13;Before running simulations for inventory management policy, an evaluation of the accuracy of the forecasts sent by the customers was performed. New forecasting methods were then tested to improve the forecasted demand. Based on these new forecasts, simulations were carried out, with the aim of reducing the inventory level. This was indeed the case but for only a limited number of products. &#13;Finally, computers tools requirements were established and general recommendations on the VMI concept were provided to Jindal.


Dissertation
Aide à la conceptualisation de la prévision des besoins au travers d'un outil didactique et intuitif en vue d'alimenter les modules de MRP et de forecasting d'un ERP.
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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In the context of the ERP solutions, NSI IT Software & Services is a Microsoft’s ERP solutions&#13;provider. This company has different types of customers: some big customers who use&#13;Microsoft Dynamics AX and some smaller customers like very small enterprises (VSE) and&#13;small and medium enterprises (SME) who use Microsoft Dynamics NAV. NSI has noted that&#13;some of the customers using Microsoft Dynamics NAV did not have the sufficient maturity to&#13;understand the theme of the forecasts and realize them. Moreover, it also exists a demand from&#13;some of these customers to have a tool in Microsoft Dynamics NAV that helps them to&#13;understand and compute demand forecasts. The final objective of this project-thesis is to obtain&#13;a functional didactic and intuitive tool for the final users.&#13;Firstly, this project-thesis is focused on the analysis of the existing solutions and their&#13;features and also on the identification of the customers’ needs with the interview of two NSI’s&#13;project leaders.&#13;Secondly, the different types of forecasting methods are exposed and explained but the&#13;list of the forecasting methods in this project-thesis is non-exhaustive. The quantitative&#13;forecasting methods from the time series analysis (exponential smoothing, moving average,&#13;linear regression) are chosen to realize the functional didactic and intuitive forecasting tool.&#13;Finally, the last step of this project thesis is the development and the conceptualization&#13;of the forecasting tool. This forecasting tool has to be intuitive and didactic. Now this tool is&#13;developed in an Excel format but it can be developed later as an add-on or an extension for&#13;Microsoft Dynamics NAV to be fully-integrated. The tool appears as follows: the first step is a&#13;questionnaire for the user; the different elements and their effect are explained. Then, with the&#13;user’s answers the tool is able to attribute a forecasting method thanks to possible answers&#13;combinations.


Book
Demand and supply integration : the key to world-class demand forecasting
Author:
ISBN: 1501505939 1501506021 1501515152 9781501505935 9781501506024 9781501515156 Year: 2018 Publisher: Boston ; Berlin : DEG Press,

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Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as S&OP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more.


Book
Inventory Analytics.
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ISBN: 180064177X 1800641761 Year: 2021 Publisher: Open Book Publishers

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Inventory Analytics provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the theory and practice of inventory control - a significant research area central to supply chain planning. The book outlines the foundations of inventory systems and surveys prescriptive analytics models for deterministic inventory control. It further discusses predictive analytics techniques for demand forecasting in inventory control and also examines prescriptive analytics models for stochastic inventory control.


Dissertation
Inventory and warehouse management optimization at PFS
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2017 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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Dans le contexte de supply chains de plus en plus complexes, une gestion efficace des stocks et des entrepôts est devenue cruciale pour le succès des entreprises. Cela est particulièrement vrai pour les sociétés actives dans le secteur de l’e-commerce, caractérisé par des consommateurs extrêmement exigeants. Ce mémoire-projet se concentre sur l’amélioration des processus de gestion d’inventaire et d’entrepôt pour Amer Sports, un client particulier du fournisseur global de solutions e-commerce, PFS. Plus particulièrement, les objectifs sont d’augmenter la productivité dans l’entrepôt pour ce client et d’améliorer l’expérience des consommateurs finaux. &#13;Premièrement, ce mémoire vise à diminuer le nombre de commandes en attente. Il commence par l’élaboration d’une politique de gestion d’inventaire permettant une meilleure adéquation des niveaux de stocks avec la demande. Pour tirer au mieux profit des efforts consacrés à la gestion des stocks, une analyse ABC est réalisée et il est recommandé de se concentrer sur les articles ayant les scores les plus élevés. Par après, différents modèles pour estimer la demande future sont exposés, ainsi qu’une technique pour déterminer et appliquer le modèle le plus performant à tout article. Ensuite, le choix d’une politique (T, s, S) pour gérer les réassorts est expliqué et une méthode pour déterminer ses paramètres compte-tenu d’un certain niveau de service est présentée. &#13;Deuxièmement, des solutions sont proposées pour adapter les opérations dans l’entrepôt aux commandes en attente qui restent inévitables et au cross-dock qui en découle. La première solution consiste à prélever toutes les commandes ouvertes et à les mettre dans un emplacement transitoire en attendant que les articles manquants arrivent. La deuxième solution propose d’allouer les articles en cross-dock à une commande et que la réception de ces articles génère le processus de prélèvement des commandes correspondantes. La dernière solution proposée est d’envoyer les commandes ouvertes aux consommateurs en deux livraisons partielles. Les avantages et inconvénients de chaque solution sont mis en avant afin de permettre une comparaison.&#13;Finalement, des outils sont présentés afin de mesurer l’amélioration de la performance grâce à l’implémentation des recommandations faites dans ce mémoire. Plus précisément, il s’agit de KPIs qui permettront de quantifier les impacts positifs du projet sur la productivité et le niveau de service. In the context of ever more complicated supply chains, efficient inventory and warehouse management has become crucial for the success of companies. This is especially the case for businesses active in the e-commerce, where end-customers tend to be extremely demanding. This project-thesis focuses on the amelioration of inventory and warehouse management processes for Amer Sports, a particular client of the global e-commerce solutions provider PFS. More precisely, the objectives are to increase the productivity in the warehouse for this client and to improve end-customer experience. &#13;Firstly, this thesis aims at decreasing the number of backorders. It starts with the elaboration of an inventory control policy that will enable a better fit between inventory levels and demand. In order to leverage the efforts devoted to inventory management, an ABC analysis is undertaken and it is recommended to focus on items with a high score. Afterwards, different models are exposed to forecast the demand and techniques are proposed to determine and apply the best model for any item. Then, the choice of using a (T, s, S) policy to manage the replenishments of products is explained and a method to determine its parameters given a certain service level is presented. &#13;Secondly, some solutions are proposed to adapt the operations in the warehouse to the backorders that remain unavoidable and to the related cross-dock imposed by Amer Sports. The first solution consists in picking all backorders and put them in a staging location until the missing items are received. The second solution proposes to allocate the cross-dock items to an order and that the reception of these items generates the picking process of the corresponding orders. The last solution recommends to send the backorders to customers in two partial shipments. The advantages and drawbacks of all solutions are put forward to make an interesting comparison. &#13;Finally, tools are presented in order to measure the performance improvement once the recommendations in the script will be implemented. This results in KPIs that will be able to quantify the positive impacts enabled by the project on both productivity and customer service level.


Book
PV Charging and Storage for Electric Vehicles
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Electric vehicles are only ‘green’ as long as the source of electricity is ‘green’ as well. At the same time, renewable power production suffers from diurnal and seasonal variations, creating the need for energy storage technology. Moreover, overloading and voltage problems are expected in the distributed network due to the high penetration of distributed generation and increased power demand from the charging of electric vehicles. The energy and mobility transition hence calls for novel technological innovations in the field of sustainable electric mobility powered from renewable energy. This Special Issue focuses on recent advances in technology for PV charging and storage for electric vehicles.


Book
PV Charging and Storage for Electric Vehicles
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Electric vehicles are only ‘green’ as long as the source of electricity is ‘green’ as well. At the same time, renewable power production suffers from diurnal and seasonal variations, creating the need for energy storage technology. Moreover, overloading and voltage problems are expected in the distributed network due to the high penetration of distributed generation and increased power demand from the charging of electric vehicles. The energy and mobility transition hence calls for novel technological innovations in the field of sustainable electric mobility powered from renewable energy. This Special Issue focuses on recent advances in technology for PV charging and storage for electric vehicles.

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