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Part 1 of the paper reviews recent trends in fossil fuel use and associated externalities. It also argues that the recent run-up in international oil prices reflects growing concerns about supply constraints associated with declining spare capacity in OPEC, refining bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than growing incremental use of oil by China and India. Part 2 compares two business as usual scenarios with a set of alternate scenarios based on policy interventions on the demand for or supply of energy and different assumptions about rigidities in domestic and international energy markets. The results suggest that energy externalities are likely to worsen significantly if there is no shift in China's and India's energy strategies. High energy demand from China and India could constrain some developing countries' growth through higher prices on international energy markets, but for others the "growth retarding" effects of higher energy prices are partially or fully offset by the "growth stimulating" effects of the larger markets in China and India. Given that there are many inefficiencies in the energy system in both China and India, there is an opportunity to reduce energy growth without adversely affecting GDP growth. The cost of a decarbonizing energy strategy will be higher for China and India than a fossil fuel-based strategy, but the net present value of delaying the shift will be higher than acting now. The less fossil fuel dependent alternative strategies provide additional dividends in terms of energy security.

Coal --- Demand For Energy --- Emissions --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Demand --- Energy Markets --- Energy Needs --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy Strategies --- Energy Strategy --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Fossil --- Fossil Fuel --- Fossil Fuel Use --- Gross Domestic Product --- Higher Energy Prices --- Investment --- Investments --- Oil --- Oil Prices --- Pollution --- Water

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Access to energy, especially modern sources, is a key to any development initiative. Based on cross-section data from a 2004 survey of some 2,300 households in rural Bangladesh, this paper studies the welfare impacts of household energy use, including that of modern energy, and estimates the household minimum energy requirement that could be used as a basis for an energy poverty line. The paper finds that although the use of both traditional (biomass energy burned in conventional stoves) and modern (electricity and kerosene) sources improves household consumption and income, the return on modern sources is 20 to 25 times higher than that on traditional sources. In addition, after comparing alternate measures of the energy poverty line, the paper finds that some 58 percent of rural households in Bangladesh are energy poor, compared with 45 percent that are income poor. The findings suggest that growth in electrification and adoption of efficient cooking stoves for biomass use can lower energy poverty in a climate-friendly way by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing energy poverty helps reduce income poverty as well.

Access to energy --- Air pollution --- Biomass --- Biomass energy --- Burning biomass --- Carbon dioxide --- Carbon dioxide emissions --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Demand for energy --- Electricity --- Electrification --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy consumption --- Energy Demand --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy requirement --- Energy use --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Green house gases --- Heat --- Kerosene --- Modern fuels --- Rural energy --- Rural energy development --- Traditional biomass

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Recent volatility in international energy prices has revealed South Eastern Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions to such external shocks. Under the current global economic downturn, in addition, the region's energy-intensive industries are faced with the challenge of the weakening demand for their outputs. This paper casts light on the relationship between the price and the demand for energy. Based on firm level data, it is shown that the price elasticity of industrial energy demand is about -0.4 on average. There are a number of data issues to interpret the results correctly. But Albania and Macedonia are systematically found to have a relatively elastic demand for energy on the order of -0.7 to -0.8. In these countries, therefore, price adjustments would be one of the effective policy options to balance demand with supply during the period of energy crisis. In other countries, the demand response would be much weaker; pricing cannot be the only solution. Other policy measures, such as facilitation of firm energy efficiency and improvements in the quality of infrastructure services, may be required.

Balance --- Cement --- Chemical manufacturing --- Crude oil --- Crude oil price --- Demand for energy --- Economic Theory & Research --- Electricity --- Electricity price --- Energy --- Energy demand --- Energy efficiency --- Energy prices --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy source --- Energy supply --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Fuels --- Investment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Natural gas --- Options --- Power --- Price --- Price elasticity

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Access to energy, especially modern sources, is a key to any development initiative. Based on cross-section data from a 2004 survey of some 2,300 households in rural Bangladesh, this paper studies the welfare impacts of household energy use, including that of modern energy, and estimates the household minimum energy requirement that could be used as a basis for an energy poverty line. The paper finds that although the use of both traditional (biomass energy burned in conventional stoves) and modern (electricity and kerosene) sources improves household consumption and income, the return on modern sources is 20 to 25 times higher than that on traditional sources. In addition, after comparing alternate measures of the energy poverty line, the paper finds that some 58 percent of rural households in Bangladesh are energy poor, compared with 45 percent that are income poor. The findings suggest that growth in electrification and adoption of efficient cooking stoves for biomass use can lower energy poverty in a climate-friendly way by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing energy poverty helps reduce income poverty as well.

Access to energy --- Air pollution --- Biomass --- Biomass energy --- Burning biomass --- Carbon dioxide --- Carbon dioxide emissions --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Demand for energy --- Electricity --- Electrification --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy consumption --- Energy Demand --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy requirement --- Energy use --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Green house gases --- Heat --- Kerosene --- Modern fuels --- Rural energy --- Rural energy development --- Traditional biomass

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Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements, as well as large compliance costs, therefore imposing a tradeoff between environmental benefits and economic efficiency. The author discusses policy implications for designing an effective and efficient global carbon market.

Abatement Costs --- Carbon Market --- Carbon Policy and Trading --- Clean Air --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Policy --- Demand For Energy --- Electricity --- Electricity Price --- Emerging Markets --- Emission --- Emission Cap --- Emissions --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Environmental Economics and Policies --- Facilities --- Fuel --- Greenhouse Gas --- Investment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Permit Trading --- Price --- Prices --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Sulfur --- Sulfur Dioxide