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This paper presents an update to IMF staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis on Greece. Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is owing to the easing of policies during 2014, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at euro 85 billion, and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program.

Debts, Public --- International Monetary Fund --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Public debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability --- Commercial banks --- Fiscal policy --- External debt --- Financial institutions --- Debts, External --- Banks and banking --- Greece

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This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.

Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Local currency debt --- Foreign currency debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Public debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States

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This Work Program (WP) translates the strategic directions and policy priorities laid out in the Fall 2018 Global Policy Agenda and the International Monetary and Financial Committee Communiqué into an Executive Board agenda for the next twelve months. Its main policy priorities and deliverables are as follows: • Advise member countries to rebuild buffers, enhance resilience, and advance structural reforms for the benefit of all to respond to mounting vulnerabilities. The Spring 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO) will analyze the macroeconomic implications of increased corporate market power. The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) will discuss global financial risks in light of tightening financial conditions, while the Fiscal Monitor (FM) will study how improved governance in fiscal frameworks and institutions can reduce corruption vulnerabilities and improve policy outcomes. • Promote cooperation to modernize the multilateral trade system and address other challenges that transcend borders. The spillover chapter of the Spring 2019 WEO will examine the determinants of trade imbalances and spillovers from different trade policies. Building on the “Bali Fintech Agenda," staff will provide a stock-take of fintech developments and study the implications for cross-border flows, financial integrity, and global monetary and financial stability in Fintech: The Experience So Far. To support Japan’s G-20 Presidency, staff will prepare a note on Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Aging. • Adapt the Fund’s policy toolkits to further enhance its surveillance, lending, and capacity development. Scoping notes for the Surveillance Review and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Review will establish priorities. The Review of Conditionality and the Design of Fund Supported Programs will assess the effectiveness of Fund program design and conditionality. Building on an earlier paper, the Review of Facilities for Low-Income Countries-Reform Proposals will offer proposals on adjusting these facilities to better meet evolving membership needs. The Fund will implement a multipronged approach to enhance debt transparency and sustainable financing practices. Staff will also strengthen debt sustainability analysis by reviewing the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries and the Fund’s Debt Limits Policy. The Revised IMF Policies and Practices on Capacity Development will reflect on suggestions made in recent discussions. • Improve governance of the Fund and modernize its operations. Work on the 15thGeneral Review of Quotas will continue with a view to completing it by the Spring Meetings, and no later than the Annual Meetings, of 2019. The Board will receive a briefing on Modernizing HR Policies and Practices: A Progress Report on Key Initiatives and continue the discussions on the Comprehensive Compensation and Benefits Review.

Directors of corporations. --- Management --- Monetary policy. --- Methodology. --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debts, External --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Income economics --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Ghana

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Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has one of the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year.

Risk (Insurance) --- Insurance --- Risk --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Natural Disasters --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Natural disasters --- Finance --- International economics --- Moral hazard --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Financial risk management --- Debts, External --- Belize

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The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. More generally business cycle synchronization within the WAEMU seems low. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU.This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Monetary unions --- Public debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Business cycles --- Economic integration --- External debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Mali