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From 2008 to 2011, Egypt was hit by significant shocks, both global and country-specific. This paper assesses the impact of the resulting macroeconomic instability on the banking sector, and examines its role as a shock absorber. The Central Bank of Egypt accommodated the shocks by supplying liquidity to the market. The paper verifies a change in the fiscal regime from one in which the primary fiscal balance was used an instrument to stabilize the public debt ratio to one in which the policy instrument stopped playing that role and affected investors' assessment of the risk of holding public debt. This pattern suggests that fiscal conditions influenced exchange rate and price expectations originating a fiscal dominance situation in which the Central Bank could not control inflation. Hence, the Central Bank lacked functional independence in spite of its de jure independence, which underscores the importance of strengthening institutions that facilitate policy coordination and allow policy to be more predictable. The government also funds itself through non-market mechanisms, in a typical financial repression scheme. The paper estimates the revenue from financial repression at about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, which together with the revenues from seignoriage add up to close to 50 percent of the budgeted tax revenues, indicating the need for an in-depth review of the governance of the public banks and the funding of public sector activities. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of shocks to macroeconomic variables on loan portfolio quality and bank capital.

Access to Finance --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Financial repression scheme --- Fiscal dominance --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Price expectations --- Public debt ratio

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Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.

Capital flow --- Central banks --- Debt explosions --- Debt intolerance --- Debt management --- Debt Markets --- Debt overhang --- Debt problem --- Debt ratio --- Debt ratios --- Debt threshold --- Debt thresholds --- Deficits --- Domestic financial markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- GDP --- Government debt --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics --- Real GDP --- Sovereign debt

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In a world dominated by uncertainty, modeling and understanding the optimal behavior of agents is of the utmost importance. Many problems in economics, finance, and actuarial science naturally require decision makers to undertake choices in stochastic environments. Examples include optimal individual consumption and retirement choices, optimal management of portfolios and risk, hedging, optimal timing issues in pricing American options, and investment decisions. Stochastic control theory provides the methods and results to tackle all such problems. This book is a collection of the papers published in the Special Issue “Applications of Stochastic Optimal Control to Economics and Finance”, which appeared in the open access journal Risks in 2019. It contains seven peer-reviewed papers dealing with stochastic control models motivated by important questions in economics and finance. Each model is rigorously mathematically funded and treated, and the numerical methods are employed to derive the optimal solution. The topics of the book’s chapters range from optimal public debt management to optimal reinsurance, real options in energy markets, and optimal portfolio choice in partial and complete information settings. From a mathematical point of view, techniques and arguments of dynamic programming theory, filtering theory, optimal stopping, one-dimensional diffusions and multi-dimensional jump processes are used.

debt crisis --- government debt management --- optimal government debt ceiling --- government debt ratio --- stochastic control --- decision analysis --- risk management --- Bayesian learning --- Markowitz problem --- optimal portfolio --- portfolio selection --- Markov additive processes --- Markov regime switching market --- Markovian jump securities --- asymptotic arbitrage --- complete market --- multiple optimal stopping --- general diffusion --- real option analysis --- energy imbalance market --- optimal reinsurance --- excess-of-loss reinsurance --- Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation --- stochastic factor model --- American options --- least square method --- derivatives pricing --- binomial tree --- stochastic interest rates --- quadrinomial tree --- insurance --- unemployment --- optimal stopping --- geometric Brownian motion --- martingale --- free boundary problem --- American call option --- utility

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Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. 'The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default' looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt - the lack of strong legal enforcement - and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to 'dilute' existing creditors, and sovereign debt's distortion of investment and growth.

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics. --- Debts, External. --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Debts, Public. --- Default (Finance) --- Finance --- Finance, Public --- Repudiation --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- 1997 Asian financial crisis. --- Auction. --- Balance of trade. --- Bank rate. --- Bond (finance). --- Bond market. --- Capital market. --- Capitalism. --- Central bank. --- Competition (economics). --- Consumer price index. --- Consumption (economics). --- Convergence (economics). --- Coordination failure (economics). --- Cost of capital. --- Credit (finance). --- Credit default swap. --- Credit risk. --- Creditor. --- Currency. --- Debt Issue. --- Debt crisis. --- Debt limit. --- Debt overhang. --- Debt ratio. --- Debt. --- Default (finance). --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economic liberalization. --- Economic planning. --- Economic policy. --- Economics. --- Economy. --- Equity Market. --- Equity ratio. --- European debt crisis. --- Eurozone. --- Exchange rate. --- External debt. --- Finance. --- Financial Account. --- Financial Times. --- Financial crisis of 2007–08. --- Financial crisis. --- Financial engineering. --- Financial fragility. --- Fiscal policy. --- Foreign Exchange Reserves. --- Foreign direct investment. --- Government bond. --- Government budget balance. --- Government budget. --- Government debt. --- Haircut (finance). --- Hedge (finance). --- Hedge fund. --- High-yield debt. --- Incremental capital-output ratio. --- Inflation. --- Institutional investor. --- Insurance. --- Interest rate. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Investment goods. --- Investment. --- Macroeconomics. --- Market economy. --- Market liquidity. --- Market mechanism. --- Market price. --- Market value. --- Money management. --- Money market. --- Neoclassical economics. --- Net capital outflow. --- Net foreign assets. --- Payment. --- Political economy. --- Price Change. --- Probability of default. --- Profit (economics). --- Public finance. --- Real interest rate. --- Repayment. --- Return on capital. --- Revaluation of fixed assets. --- Risk premium. --- Risk-Return Tradeoff. --- Securitization. --- Stock market index. --- Stock market. --- Supply (economics). --- Swap (finance). --- Tax revenue. --- Trade credit. --- Trader (finance). --- Trading nation. --- United States Treasury security. --- World Bank. --- World economy.