Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper assesses the extent to which debt overhang poses a constraint to economic activity in Emerging Europe, as the region emerges from the recent financial and economic crisis. At the macroeconomic level, it finds that the external imbalance problem for Emerging Europe has been in most cases more one of flows (high current account deficits in the pre-crisis years) rather than large stocks of external debt. A high reliance on equity funding means that net external debt is far lower than net external liabilities. Domestic balance sheets have expanded quite rapidly but sector liabilities remain relatively low compared with advanced economies. With the important exception of Hungary, public debt levels also remain relatively low in Emerging Europe. At the microeconomic level, the potential for debt overhang in the corporate sector is limited to a few countries: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Slovenia. Due to the low incidence of household debt, hardly any country, except Estonia, seems to face a threat of debt overhang in the household sector. The strong increase in non-performing loans compared with pre-crisis bank profitability suggests that debt overhang in the banking sector is a threat in Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Georgia, and Albania. Financial integration of Emerging Europe seems to have contributed to the transmission of the crisis to the region. At the same time, this integration is helping the region in managing the crisis by concerted actions of the major players.

Access to Finance --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Consumption --- Debt Markets --- Debt overhang --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Household behavior --- Investment

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a household's welfare, but also increase the probability of loan default. As a result, there is a direct link between these stress-testing exercises and financial stability risks. The authors find that very few households are at risk as a result of the shocks experienced over the past few years; new vulnerable households represent about 2 percent of all households, 6 percent of households with debt, and 2-3 percent of aggregate banking system assets. This suggests that household over-indebtedness in Croatia is unlikely to become a drag on aggregate economic activity and that financial stability risks remain manageable. One caveat should be noted. Some 27-31 percent of households with debt, representing 8-9 of banking system assets, are vulnerable even before being subjected to an economic shock. Since NPLs were low before the global financial crisis, it can be argued that banks knew something about some of these households that is not captured by household budget surveys. It follows that the calculations in this paper should primarily focus on the increased vulnerability of households as a result of shocks and are likely to represent an upper bound to the financial stability risks faced by Croatia on account of household indebtedness.

Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Consumption --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Debt overhang --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Household behavior --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Investment

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Nigeria's oil boom has not brought an end to perennial stagnation in the non-oil economy. Is this the unavoidable consequence of the resource boom or have misguided policies contributed? This paper indicates that the extreme volatility of expenditure rather than Dutch Disease effects are behind the disappointing non-oil growth record. Fiscal policies failed to smooth highly volatile oil income; on the contrary government expenditure was more volatile than oil income. The authors provide econometric evidence showing that volatility of expenditure was increased by debt overhang problems. Moreover, they also find evidence of voracity effects that exacerbated expenditure volatility prior to 1984.

Access to Finance --- Bank Policy --- Commodity prices --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Debt Overhang --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Expenditure --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal policies --- Government expenditure --- Macroeconomic policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Oil boom --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Public debt has surged during the current global economic crisis and is expected to increase further. This development has raised concerns whether public debt is starting to hit levels where it might negatively affect economic growth. Does such a tipping point in public debt exist? How severe would the impact of public debt be on growth beyond this threshold? What happens if debt stays above this threshold for an extended period of time? The present study addresses these questions with the help of threshold estimations based on a yearly dataset of 101 developing and developed economies spanning a time period from 1980 to 2008. The estimations establish a threshold of 77 percent public debt-to-GDP ratio. If debt is above this threshold, each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold is 64 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. In these countries, the loss in annual real growth with each additional percentage point in public debt amounts to 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative effect on real GDP could be substantial. Importantly, the estimations control for other variables that might impact growth, such as the initial level of per-capita-GDP.

Capital flow --- Central banks --- Debt explosions --- Debt intolerance --- Debt management --- Debt Markets --- Debt overhang --- Debt problem --- Debt ratio --- Debt ratios --- Debt threshold --- Debt thresholds --- Deficits --- Domestic financial markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- GDP --- Government debt --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Public debt --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics --- Real GDP --- Sovereign debt

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. 'The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default' looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt - the lack of strong legal enforcement - and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to 'dilute' existing creditors, and sovereign debt's distortion of investment and growth.

BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics. --- Debts, External. --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Debts, Public. --- Default (Finance) --- Finance --- Finance, Public --- Repudiation --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- 1997 Asian financial crisis. --- Auction. --- Balance of trade. --- Bank rate. --- Bond (finance). --- Bond market. --- Capital market. --- Capitalism. --- Central bank. --- Competition (economics). --- Consumer price index. --- Consumption (economics). --- Convergence (economics). --- Coordination failure (economics). --- Cost of capital. --- Credit (finance). --- Credit default swap. --- Credit risk. --- Creditor. --- Currency. --- Debt Issue. --- Debt crisis. --- Debt limit. --- Debt overhang. --- Debt ratio. --- Debt. --- Default (finance). --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economic liberalization. --- Economic planning. --- Economic policy. --- Economics. --- Economy. --- Equity Market. --- Equity ratio. --- European debt crisis. --- Eurozone. --- Exchange rate. --- External debt. --- Finance. --- Financial Account. --- Financial Times. --- Financial crisis of 2007–08. --- Financial crisis. --- Financial engineering. --- Financial fragility. --- Fiscal policy. --- Foreign Exchange Reserves. --- Foreign direct investment. --- Government bond. --- Government budget balance. --- Government budget. --- Government debt. --- Haircut (finance). --- Hedge (finance). --- Hedge fund. --- High-yield debt. --- Incremental capital-output ratio. --- Inflation. --- Institutional investor. --- Insurance. --- Interest rate. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Investment goods. --- Investment. --- Macroeconomics. --- Market economy. --- Market liquidity. --- Market mechanism. --- Market price. --- Market value. --- Money management. --- Money market. --- Neoclassical economics. --- Net capital outflow. --- Net foreign assets. --- Payment. --- Political economy. --- Price Change. --- Probability of default. --- Profit (economics). --- Public finance. --- Real interest rate. --- Repayment. --- Return on capital. --- Revaluation of fixed assets. --- Risk premium. --- Risk-Return Tradeoff. --- Securitization. --- Stock market index. --- Stock market. --- Supply (economics). --- Swap (finance). --- Tax revenue. --- Trade credit. --- Trader (finance). --- Trading nation. --- United States Treasury security. --- World Bank. --- World economy.