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How should resource-dependent countries respond (fiscally) to resource price volatility? This paper studies what determines revenue allocation between a "spend today" strategy and a "save now-spend tomorrow" approach in the context of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It uses a three-sector model in which public infrastructure investment has tangible benefits for private production and investment while it is also subject to absorption constraints. The paper calibrates the optimal allocation rule between spending today and asset accumulation, by minimizing a social loss function defined in terms of household welfare (measured by consumption volatility) and macroeconomic volatility (measured in terms of fiscal volatility). Sensitivity analysis is also conducted with respect to various key parameters, including the efficiency of public investment. The results indicate that, if properly managed, sovereign fund could contribute significantly to macroeconomic stability in the DRC.
Commodity Price Shock --- Dsge Model, Sovereign Wealth Fund --- Small Open Economy
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Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Technology: general issues --- unconventional monetary policy --- transmission channel --- Bayesian TVP-SV-VAR --- Bayesian econometrics --- portfolio choice --- sentiments --- stock market predictability --- cryptocurrency --- Bitcoin --- forecasting --- point forecast --- density forecast --- dynamic model averaging --- dynamic model selection --- forgetting factors --- military and civilian spending --- DSGE model --- fiscal policy --- monetary policy --- Bayesian estimation --- Bayesian VAR --- density forecasting --- time-varying volatility --- ES --- CES function --- Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects regression --- MCMC methods --- macroeconomic and financial applications --- unconventional monetary policy --- transmission channel --- Bayesian TVP-SV-VAR --- Bayesian econometrics --- portfolio choice --- sentiments --- stock market predictability --- cryptocurrency --- Bitcoin --- forecasting --- point forecast --- density forecast --- dynamic model averaging --- dynamic model selection --- forgetting factors --- military and civilian spending --- DSGE model --- fiscal policy --- monetary policy --- Bayesian estimation --- Bayesian VAR --- density forecasting --- time-varying volatility --- ES --- CES function --- Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects regression --- MCMC methods --- macroeconomic and financial applications
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Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Technology: general issues --- unconventional monetary policy --- transmission channel --- Bayesian TVP-SV-VAR --- Bayesian econometrics --- portfolio choice --- sentiments --- stock market predictability --- cryptocurrency --- Bitcoin --- forecasting --- point forecast --- density forecast --- dynamic model averaging --- dynamic model selection --- forgetting factors --- military and civilian spending --- DSGE model --- fiscal policy --- monetary policy --- Bayesian estimation --- Bayesian VAR --- density forecasting --- time-varying volatility --- ES --- CES function --- Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects regression --- MCMC methods --- macroeconomic and financial applications
Choose an application
Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
unconventional monetary policy --- transmission channel --- Bayesian TVP-SV-VAR --- Bayesian econometrics --- portfolio choice --- sentiments --- stock market predictability --- cryptocurrency --- Bitcoin --- forecasting --- point forecast --- density forecast --- dynamic model averaging --- dynamic model selection --- forgetting factors --- military and civilian spending --- DSGE model --- fiscal policy --- monetary policy --- Bayesian estimation --- Bayesian VAR --- density forecasting --- time-varying volatility --- ES --- CES function --- Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects regression --- MCMC methods --- macroeconomic and financial applications
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