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Managing (Fiscally) Resource Price Volatility : Exploring Policy Options for the Democratic Republic of Congo
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

How should resource-dependent countries respond (fiscally) to resource price volatility? This paper studies what determines revenue allocation between a "spend today" strategy and a "save now-spend tomorrow" approach in the context of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It uses a three-sector model in which public infrastructure investment has tangible benefits for private production and investment while it is also subject to absorption constraints. The paper calibrates the optimal allocation rule between spending today and asset accumulation, by minimizing a social loss function defined in terms of household welfare (measured by consumption volatility) and macroeconomic volatility (measured in terms of fiscal volatility). Sensitivity analysis is also conducted with respect to various key parameters, including the efficiency of public investment. The results indicate that, if properly managed, sovereign fund could contribute significantly to macroeconomic stability in the DRC.


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Bayesian Econometrics
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.


Book
Bayesian Econometrics
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Export citation

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Bookmark

Abstract

Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.


Book
Bayesian Econometrics
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

Loading...
Export citation

Choose an application

Bookmark

Abstract

Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

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